DAQMAN HUNTS GUINEAS ONE-TWO: Daqman dares a Ballydoyle banker and a one-two in the first Classic of the season, the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket this afternoon, and he prices up a horse in the Thirsk Hunt Cup as such big value that he stakes it to land a bonus 95 points profit on BETDAQ.
FRESH FROM A 15-2 BIG-RACE WIN: Only on Wednesday, Sweet Selection’s 15-2 Sagaro Stakes success sent Daqman into a 12-4 lead over Pricewise (Daqman is now + 5.00 and Pricewise – 8.50 to single-unit stakes), and they clash again today in the 2.05 and 2.40 Goodwood, the 2.20 and 3.35 Newmarket, and the Kentucky Derby tonight (11.46 Churchill Downs).
O’BRIEN GUINEAS BOMBERS
Churchill is Aidan O’Brien’s record breaker. I expect the colt to land the Ballydoyle trainer’s eighth 2,000 Guineas which would top the trainers’ roll of honour for the race.
My ABC guide (Thursday) was not done to knockouts, because the declarations were transmitted late but it helps now to reveal the reduction in the size of the field, a strong indication that only two or three colts at the front of the market have any real chance of winning.
I can’t look beyond Churchill, Al Wukair, Barney Roy and Eminent, and I’m prepared to believe that three of them are making a price for the favourite, though there is a sneaky outsider.
WHY I don’t much like Al. I might be more inclined to Al Wukair if I had the 33-1 Pricewise nabbed. Good luck to him but, even with that in my wallet, I’d have to have a saver on Churchill. Here’s why:
Al’s sire Dream Ahead’s best progeny so far are sprinters, as was he. And Al Wukair’s dam hasn’t thrown anything better than a Listed placed, albeit her half-sister was in the frame in a Guineas.
On form, Al Wukair’s making up 10 lengths to streak past the Lagardere winner, National Defense, looked special in the Djebel, though trainer Andre Fabre’s prediction (‘he’ll be in the first three at Newmarket’) is not all that special, and would have been very modest indeed had he seen only 10 runners this afternoon.
In fact, Al Wukair’s Djebel opposition was Listed level with the exception of runner-up National Defense, winner in the autumn of the Lagardere (the Grand Criterium for two-year-old colts).
But the Lagardere form quickly lagged behind and continues to do so this season. The second home, Salouen, was beaten by Rivet (in the Racing Post Trophy) and recently by Khalidi (last month’s Feilden Stakes) both now considered not good enough for today’s Classic.
Third was Whitecliffsofdover, with whom Aidan O’Brien won only a handicap at the Newmarket Craven meeting, also with Listed-level-only colts behind him.
The form, the time and the manner of Al Wukair’s sprinting home in the Djebel suggests just that: it was a sprint finish against lesser lights.
Why I’m not batty about Barney. First foal of a Galileo mare, so I can’t crab him there yet, though it is a worry if you’re going in big on such an unknown quantity.
And his sire has produced absolutely nothing so far, winners only of four or five figure sums. Barney’s the best by a long chalk, and the stallion himself, Excelebration, was a ‘nearly horse’ extraordinary: five times placed behind Frankel! Maybe we shouldn’t hold that against him.
As for the form, Barney bombed past Dream Castle in the Greenham and James Doyle had a problem pulling him up.
But the runner-up Dream Castle raced far too freely and interesting to see that he takes Barney on again. The third horse had been beaten by the eighth colt home in the UAE 2,000, winner of which was only fourth in Churchill’s Dewhurst.
Why Eminent is not so. Frankel’s sons Eminent and Dream Castle could be in at the finish if they improve on their trials.
Rivet, well behind Churchill in the Dewhurst, was second and Larchmont Lad fifth in Eminent’s Craven Stakes. They don’t take Eminent on again after that defeat, and that’s to be expected, but the Craven is an unfashionable trial in which the top yards tend to run their second strings (or even worse).
Sure enough, Godolphin ran Benbati (at 95 a stone behind Dream Castle), Team Hannon ran Larchmont Lad (they had Barney Roy up their sleeve), and Aidan O’Brien sent out War Decree, a good 12lb off Churchill.
VERDICT: Beaten first run as a two-year-old but five in a row since (all odds on), including Futurity and National Stakes in Ireland, and Chesham and Dewhurst in England. That’s Churchill.
Relaxed, a great traveler, physically powerful and very imposing. And big value because he should be odds on.
Best place bet could be Lancaster Bomber, second in the Breeders’ Cup turf, fourth in the UAE Derby, and little more than a length behind Churchill in the Dewhurst.
ORDER IN: 1 Churchill 2, Lancaster Bomber, 3 Al Wukair, 4 Barney Roy, 5 Dream Castle
IT’S ANOTHER PROFITABLE YEAR
2.05 Goodwood Second and third home in Dance The Dream’s Leicester success have both won well since, and she may be the danger to Ajman Princess, who couldn’t quite hack it in Group-1 company (second in the Ribblesdale, finished lame in the Irish Oaks).
2.20 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes) Clive Cox seems to dominate this with last year’s winner, Profitable, and his new kid on the block, Priceless, who has been pulverising Listed company but may need more time to raise his game to Group level against established players in the big league.
Profitable is a real Spring horse, and has been working supremely well at home. This column was on him for this race last year and he went on to take the Temple Stakes and the King’s Stand.
The very fast Washington DC is already off the mark for the season and looks more likely to perform above himself (officially only 4lb behind Profitable).
2.40 Goodwood The stats tell you that the double-figure drawn are flung wide or forced to tuck in and pray for the gaps to appear.
Stalls 2-to-7 (gate 1 is too often a rails trap) give you The Warrior (in 7), though he hasn’t won above class 4 and his rating has been pretty static (86 to 89) for nine consecutive races.
Make Music’s best form is also in class 4 and she’s been 80 to 86 for seven starts now, while Lightning Charlie’s character (bridesmaid 222-22 figures) is exposed.
Front-runner Medburn Dream is a winner at this class-2 level and has had a run back over a mile when he faded only in the last 150 yards. Looks a trade horse at 19.5 on BETDAQ but all his best form is with cut in the ground.
A Coventry Stakes third would clearly be a standout here, but gelded and now hooded, Eltezam is letting the side down (pulled hard first run back and played up at the start on the last day).
The answer, then, must be Zwayyan (5.7 offers), a winner on good to firm, and unlucky (stumbled) when favourite for a class 2 over this CD at Newmarket in September.
BRIYOUNI FOR BULL’S-EYE BONUS
2.55 Newmarket (Jockey Club Stakes) Four-year-olds dominate this (8 from 10) and today have the class in Seventh Heaven and the improver in Galapiat (a tasty 5.8 on BETDAQ)
3.40 Thirsk (Hunt Cup) Briyouni has done really well over the winter and has a spot-on draw here (his stall has won it three times in six seasons) for a bull’s-eye bet.
Finished well back on his reappearance at Newmarket but, in fact, was thereabouts until the Dip and was third of the stands-side group after losing a shoe.
He’s 16.5 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse but should be around 11.0, so I’ll be back him to win 50 with the corresponding stake of five points for a bonus return of 77.50 plus a place (total-profit target 95).
DREAMING OF A DERBY WINNER
11.46 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby) Irish War Cry is the topical tip if Churchill has won the Guineas. But his trailblazing in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park suggests that the extra quarter here is a worry. So is forecast rain.
Closing on him after being stopped in his run was Gunnevara but that one was only third in the Florida Derby to Always Dreaming.
I’m always dreaming thanks to the fabulous Woodford Reserve bourbon whiskey which is sent to me from Kentucky (thanks Stacy) every year. I’ll be loving you; always!
But for my tasty shot today I hope that McCraken wakes when he sees where he is. He won three times on today’s course as a juvenile.
He had only a Grade-3 winning start this season but the form turned out tops (Tapwrit second, won the Tampa Bay Derby) and he needed the race on the last day after a two-month break.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except banker and bull’s-eye bet)
2.05 Goodwood
BET 6pts win AJMAN PRINCESS
2.20 Newmarket
BET 4pts win PROFITABLE
BET 3pts win WASHINGTON DC
2.40 Goodwood
BET 4.25pts win ZWAYYAN
BET 1pt win and place MEDBURN DREAM
2.55 Newmarket
BET 4pts win GALAPIAT
BET 6pts win (stakes saver) SEVENTH HEAVEN
3.35 Newmarket
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CHURCHILL
BET 1pt win and place LANCASTER BOMBER
3.40 Thirsk
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5pts win and place BRYOUNI at 16.5
3.50 Goodwood
BET 1.5pt win and place UELE RIVER
11.46 Churchill Downs
BET 4pts win ALWAYS DREAMING
BET 2.4pts win McCRAKEN
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 2 x 3pts win doubles Seventh Heaven and Galapiat (2.55 Newmarket) with Churchill and Lancaster Bomber (3.35 Newmarket) and 4 x 1pt win trebles the same four with Ajman Princess (2.05 Goodwood)
EARLY BIRDS: Dream Castle (3.35 Newmarket) and Night Circus (4.45 Newmarket)
