GOODWOOD: DAQMAN 53, PRICEWISE 20: It’s the final fling at Goodwood, with Daqman leading Pricewise 53-20 on the Flat. He dares Bull’s-Eye Bets to win 50 points in the Stewards’ Cup, where he has one selection at BETDAQ value of 24.0.
NEWMARKET: 22 BANKERS OUT OF 30: Even more daring perhaps is Daqman’s banker today in a big-field nursery at Newmarket. He reckons it a Classic filly in a handicap. So does the trainer. His banker s are three from four at the Goodwood meeting.
24.0 REX COULD BE CUP KING AGAIN
2.05 Goodwood (Stewards Cup Consolation) Winners of 5f and 6f races at Goodwood this week have been drawn 4, 3, 5, 5, 1, 2, 5 and 1, with 22 out of 24 placed horses from single-figure stalls, big fields and small.
Of course, none of those races had as many runners as the two Stewards’ Cup heats this afternoon, for which a total of 20 results in 10 years have thrown up 16 winners with (oh dear) double-figure draws. Nothing matches up; or does it?
The winning stalls from this Consolation have shown a rough correlation seven years out of 10 with those for the Cup proper later on in the day: 27/26; 13/4; 15/11; 9/15; 20/18; 16/10; 12/10; 22/30. A pretty good indicator from one race to the next.
Quality wins the day, with older horses to the fore in the opener: no winners below 9st; only two aged below five. Market profile? Eight out of 10 had an SP of 8-1 to 18-1. No favourites, only the occasional real shock.
After this week’s results, we have to have one low stall, though rain could stand the draw on its head. The booking of Graham Lee for back-to-form Confessional (stall 6) – second in this race in 2011 – looks significant, with the horse one of only 10 of the 28 to have won in today’s grade.
I can see Confessional (18.0 on BETDAQ this morning) tracking Hopes N Dreams (stall 3) while, in the middle, Tatlisu (17, Ryan Moore, the likely favourite) and, on the stands’ side, El Viento (28, George Chaloner, 17.5) will be looking for leads. The outcome depends on whether they find them.
Two I am loathe to leave out are Barnet Fair (5) and Secondo (20) but both need to hear their feet rattle and there is – and was – rain about
2.40 Goodwood I left Red Avenger (won 12-1) unbacked out of my short list yesterday and the same stable should go well here with the improving CD winner Oasis Fantasy, for whom showers – but not too much rain – are welcome.
Local horse Pack Leader, who won his maiden here, and the Mark Johnston pair Double Bluff and Master Of Finance, look sure to lead from their low draw, with the other front-runners, Galactic Heroine and Black Shadow, with work to do from wide stalls.
Kings Fete and Second Step will have every chance down the outside if the front charge peters out. Which is best of them, no one knows until after the event.
I’ll stick to trying to win my pound back from Thursday’s unlucky defeat of Rainbow Rock, front of the market for Mark Johnston again here.
2.55 Newmarket It seems strange to have a banker bet in a nursery of umpteen runners but Mark Johnston has turned his undivided attention from Goodwood to spotlight Enlace, whom he thinks is Classic material for 2015. It could be that we will look back and think the 2-1 was a gift.
3.10 Galway (Ladbrokes Hurdle) This is a race for the money, with half a dozen winners backed down to between 100-30 and 5-1 in the last decade.
Get an early position on one weighted below 11st (8 out of 10), aged four to six (8 out of 10) and trained by the usual suspects. Jockey Mark Walsh is 1110 since 2008.
Off The Charts is nothing to write home about – a smallish sort – but Mark is two from three on him, with cut in the ground, including success over further (3m) at thePLunchestown festival, albeit in first-time visors which are left off today.
John Kiely won this a couple of seasons back with the stable’s meal ticket, Carlingford Lough, and has the other J P McManus runner, The Parishioner, proverbially thrown in here but his best form so far has been on a sound surface and there were 15 withdrawals from the card this morning with the ground turning soft.
A dry surface was also needed for Security Breach, third in this last year for Willie Mullins, but it all seems to have gone Off The Chart’s way.
3.15 Goodwood (Nassau Stakes) Three-year-olds have won in five out of seven years and this season a champion filly, Naghrooda, has beaten the colts in the King George. In fact, overall, the Classic generation is 30-9 up in this race.
But all depends on the weather. If it stays firm, Venus De Milo, Lustrous; some rain, Sultanina; a deluge, Narniyn.
Whatever, you back, there’s a sensational punter-friendly 101% list in the BETDAQ orange, giving you a huge start value wise this morning for an early position, which you can bolster or repair later on.
I shall take a punt on Amazing Maria, with the yard back to top form after a virus. She was two from two on the track last year.
3.50 Goodwood (Stewards Cup) Though older horses tend to win the Consolation, returns for the Cup proper reveal that 15 of the last 18 winners were aged four or five, seven of the last nine were drawn 10-19, and eight out of 10 in the decade had already scored in this class-2 grade or higher.
Blaine (penalty), Ninjago and Sir Maximilian (penalty) tick all the boxes. The best guide is the Wokingham, in which Alben Star was fourth and Ninjago down the field.
Don’t write off Ninjago, hampered when fifth last year, and seen only twice in 2014. Rain would bring in another lightly raced, Hallelujah. Hallelujah is a Listed winner, drawn wide with Arnold Lane, a Group horse in a handicap, who, along with Intrinsic, would also like some juice in the ground.
The high numbers, where Discussiontofollow will come from, get a tow from the likes of Ashpan Sam, though he looks high in the handicap now and is held by Intrinsic on CD form on the soft in May. Intrinsic was ante-post favourite for the Wokingham but missed the cut.
I need to nominate three here, because I don’t know the ground, but that does not spoil my value in a 107% total probability list in the BETDAQ orange. That compares with an horrendous 144% bookmaker Total SP for the race last season.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’ll take the two lightly-raced improving four-year-olds, one on either side, Muthmir (stall 2) and Intrinsic (in 22), and was going to add Ninjago from the W okimngham but, with William Haggas in such tremendous form – 10 winners out of 20 – and recalling his so-easy win in this last year, I took 24.0 Rex Imperator this morning. Two of the last three winners carried his sort of weight.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30pts unless stated)
BET 4pts win TATLISU, 1.8pts win and place on each CONFESSIONAL and EL VIENTO (2.05 Goodwood)
BET 4pts win RAINBOW ROCK (2.40 Goodwood)
BANKER BET: 20pts win ENLACE (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 3.4pts win OFF THE CHARTS (3.10 Galway)
BET 3.4pts win AMAZING MARIA and 1pt win (stakes saver) VENUS DE MILO (3.15 Goodwood)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 10pts win MUTHMIR, 7pts win INTRINSIC and 2pts win and place REX IMPERATOR (3.50 Goodwood)
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