DAQMAN BIDS FOR CROSS-CHANNEL NAPS DOUBLE: It’s a sensational day’s racing at Ascot and Newmarket plus the opening of the Longchamp Arc meeting. Daqman has two naps, one for England, one in France. Headlines:
🔹 ROLL THE OPENING DICE WITH ROSA
🔹 A NEW IRISH STAR AT BETDAQ 16.0
🔹 ALEMAGNA’S STAMINA IS THE KEY
🔹 FARRH TO GO CLOSE AT THIS TRIP
🔹 THE SOFT GROUND WILL SUIT STORY
🔹 ANAPURNA IS FRANKIE’S CHOICE
🔹 HERMOSA NAPPED IN SUN CHARIOT
🔹 DEE EX BEE DESERVES SOME GOLD
ACCOUNTS CHECK
Daqman 73, Pricewise 33 (Daqman + 473, Pricewise – 465 to 10pt stakes)
Bulls-eye naps (7-15) 46% (252pts profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (23-37) 62% (95pts profit to 20-point stakes)
ROLL THE OPENING DICE WITH ROSA
12.30 Longchamp (Prix Dollar) The home team played an ace in this three years out of four – Cirrus Des Aigles (2010 – 2013) – and have resisted Anglo-Irish invaders since John Gosden won it with Pipedreamer (2009).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Line Of Duty, Group-1 placed twice this summer, looks a trump card for Godolphin, if yesterday’s Group-3 success has turned the corner for Charlie Appleby, the only hit in a sad sequence of missing strike: 22202200212, no fewer than six losing favourites among them.
Three-year-olds have a poor record in this – no score in the decade – and that also applies to Flambure and Jessica Harrington’s Leo De Fury, who has to step up from Group 3.
Roger Varian’s Mountain Angel has to raise his game and it’s also a step up for sequence horse Skolleti.
I’m siding with 6.0 offer Villa Rosa, five times a winner over 1m 4f but showed her best form on the last day over 1m 2f, impressive in a Maisons Group 3.
A NEW IRISH STAR AT BETDAQ 16.0
1.35 Longchamp (Prix Daniel Wildenstein) This celebrates the owner of the 1974 Arc winner, Allez France, arguably the best European race mare before Enable.
That cry (‘come on France’) might be heard for Olmedo, who trounced Mountain Angel in the Gontaut-Biron, showing a marked preference for soft ground.
Shaman, who has won on heavy, divided Romanised and Line Of Duty in the Jacques le Marois, and Impulsif has also won a Group 3.
The Revenant scored seven wins out of nine but hasn’t been seen since May and his stable is in stinking form.
What a year Shamardal has had! His son, Tauran Shaman, out of a Danehill mare, still too babyish to race in the early summer, delighted Jessica Harrington with two ‘could be anything’ performances in July.
Let’s put it this way, I could have three stabs at this and miss out, and I wouldn’t like to lose when I could have had 16.0 Tauran Shaman and celebrated the birth of a new Irish star.
ALEMAGNA’S STAMINA IS THE KEY
1.40 Newmarket Three-year-olds have a monopoly on this prize. Eva Maria was well backed last night but has to step up a couple of grades. The handicapper punished Scentasia 10lb for a firm-ground win on the last day.
The 9.8 BETDAQ offer Alemagna is much better than her Haydock run over 1m 6f on the last day and will appreciate a fast-run race over half a mile shorter.
2.15 Newmarket This 6f sales race is expected to split into two groups, so advisable to back one either side.
They came for front-runner Indian Creak (stall 12), a winner up to 7f, from 20-1 in to 14-1 last night but 27.0 on BETDAQ early mouse this morning. Bonds Boy should get a good tow in gate 8 but I prefer to see their second run. Under The Stars has an obvious chance but is a short price for the size of the field.
On the other side, Don’t Stop Dancing (from 24) could take them along, with One Night Stand (22) the beneficiary at 39.0 offers.
FARRH TO GO CLOSE AT THIS TRIP
2.35 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute’s three losing favourites in a row yesterday puts me off Sextant. Ascot form 211 but his only bad run this year was on soft, and he was very easy to back this morning at 7.2 BETDAQ.
Raakib Alhawa also flopped on the soft in June but a step up in trip brought him back to life. Wells Farrh Go (4.8 offers as I write) has been well supported; brought back only in the summer with the Irish St leger in mind, ended up in the Ebor. Today’s his trip.
Morando is six now and has dropped down the ratings. Faylaq has done what’s been asked of him but this is much tougher.
THE SOFT GROUND WILL SUIT STORY
3.10 Ascot (Challenge Cup) Raising Sand is 4-12 at Ascot, third in this race in 2017 and winner last year. He won the International in July after third in the Royal Hunt Cup.
He is now 6lb higher than his winning form but drawn where the winners come from (six out of 10 from stalls 8 to 13).
Backed to beat him is another Ascot specialist, Ripp Orf, winner last year of the Victoria Cup and Cunard Handicap, third in the International then and fourth this year.
Rip Orff is 13lb better off for his two-lengths defeat by Raising Sand in this a year ago but he, too, has never won this high in the ratings.
There’s nothing between Rip Orff and Escobar and their placings a neck apart in the Cunard Handicap (firm) renewal last month, and Escobar ran second on the soft in the Balmoral Handicap here (1m) at the 2018 Cesarewitch meeting.
Frankel’s son, Casanova, is unexposed but unproven on soft. Kynren is a bridesmaid extraordinary with his current run of 320320022032, and David Barron remains on the cold list. False favourite yet again.
The hidden horses are Battered (form on soft 112) at 13.5 and Bedouin’s Story (soft 31011) at 8.6. Bedouin’s Story was fancied for (abandoned) Haydock in the mud last week after a minor setback robbed him of his Cambridgeshire chance, and Saeed bin Suroor continues in great form (31% strike rate).
Escobar was huge this morning – too big perhaps, as if there’s a problem – exchanging at up to 25.0.
ANAPURNA IS FRANKIE’S CHOICE
3.25 Longchamp (Prix de Royallieu) Three-year-old fillies are 7-3 better than the older mares in the decade, up to and including BETDAQ ambassador Gavin Cromwell’s success with Princess Yaiza a year ago.
That was the first Irish winner since John Oxx, who scored twice with second-season fillies in six seasons (1995 and 2000) in his heyday.
Today, horses trained by John Gosden (3), Aidan O’Brien (2) and Roger Varian (1) make up two-thirds of the field.
My Fortune Cookie, Anapurna, winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial on soft ground, and heroine of the Epsom Oaks, has raced only in the Vermeille on today’s course since (not clear run) and that purposeful trial and her being Frankie Dettori’s choice, makes me give her one more chance this afternoon at around 5-1.
But, if you fancy Sottsass for the Arc, you have no choice but to bet on a form booster from 12-1 shot Mutamakina, runner-up to that one in the Niel trial last month.
HERMOSA NAPPED IN SUN CHARIOT
3.25 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes) The morning BETDAQ market tells you what you’re up against: three fillies within 0.5 of each other. All three – Hermosa, Iridessa and last year’s winner Laurens – are on the same mark of 116.
Hermosa (4.3) and Iridessa represent the three-year-olds, who are on a four-timer in this, with dual Guineas winner Hermosa the soft-ground performer that we know of. Napped.
4.00 Longchamp (Prix du Chaudenay) Fortune Cookie Dashing Willoughby landed a gamble on the soft at Ascot in June, beating Nayef Road and Moonlight Spirit in the Queens Vase.
Dropping back from Group 1 on sounder surfaces, he should be in his element today after feeling the firm ground in the St Leger. Around 5-1.
DEE EX BEE DESERVES SOME GOLD
4.35 Longchamp (Prix du Cadran, the French Gold Cup) Call The Wind has done well in the Dubai Gold Cup and the Kergorlay this season, always looking in need of this 2m 4f marathon which he won last year from Holdthasigreen (has a verdict over Way To Paris) with Line Des Ongrais and Mille Et Mille behind.
Cleonte won the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot over further even than today’s race but is said to hate soft ground.
At the same Ascot meeting, on a day of different conditions, Dee Ex Bee ran Stradivarius to a length in a soft-ground Gold Cup. He deserves Gold at last here. The worry is Mark Johnston’s modest strike-rate (10-77).
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.30 Longchamp (win 20)
BET 4pts win VILLA ROSA
1.35 Longchamp (win 20)
BET 1.25pts win TAURAN SHAMAN
1.40 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win and place ALEMAGNA
2.00 Ascot (win 20)
Bet 3pts win TIS MARVELLOUS
2.15 Newmarket (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 2pts win INDIAN CREAK
BET 1pt win and place ONE NIGHT STAND
2.35 Ascot (win 20)
BET 4pts win WELLS FARRH GO
3.10 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.5pts win BEDOUIN’S STORY
BET 2pts win and place ESCOBAR
3.25 Longchamp (win 30)
BET 6pts win ANAPURNA
BET 2.5pts win MUTAMAKINA
3.25 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 9pts win (nap) HERMOSA
4.0 Longchamp (win 30)
BET 6pts win DASHING WILLOUGHBY
4.35 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 7pts win (nap) DEE EX BEE
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