DAQMAN PROFIT FOR TWO DAYS RUNNING: Daqman’s win-20 bet, taken at 4.5 on BETDAQ, raced away with the sprint at Goodwood yesterday, backed in to 11-4 favourite. At the other end of the scale, his 32.0 chance in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, taken e.w. at 16.0 to finish second to Honeysuckle, did exactly that.
Friday: Profit on the day: 10.00
WON 11-4 RAASEL (5.5 on BETDAQ)
WON (e.w. 2nd 18-1) ECHOES IN THE RAIN (32.0 on BETDAQ)
Thursday: Profit on the day 4.50
WON 5-6 TERRA MITICA (nap: 2.25 on BETDAQ)
BIG-VALUE BETDAQ BETS ON GUINEAS DAY: Daqman can afford a tilt at a Guineas outsider after taking big-value odds about the favourite in ante-post offers on BETDAQ. In fact, he headlines outsider-value all day at Newmarket, Thirsk and Goodwood.
17.0 SHOT HAS GUINEAS POWER
TACTICAL 15.0 ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
STOUTE STILL HANDICAP KING
FALCON COULD SWOOP AT 11.5
CLASS CASE OF VALUE IN HAND
17.0 SHOT HAS GUINEAS POWER
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas) See ‘Clear Winner Of Guineas Guide’ in the Daqman Archive on Thursday.
DRAW: The favourite, Native Trail, is not well drawn in 15, with six of the last nine winners coming out of stall nine or lower.
FAVOURITES: But favourite backers can take comfort from the successes out of 15, 16 and 17 by Kameko (2020), Gleneagles (2015) and Magna Grecia (2019).
Just two favourites have won in the last eight years; none for England; and, overall, Irish raiders are seven out of 10.
TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 10 wins; Jim Bolger 2.
JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori (3 wins), Kevin Manning (2) and Ryan Moore (2).
RATINGS: Since 2010, some 11 of the 12 winners have been rated 109 or more: that’s a black mark each for Boundless Ocean, Checkandchallenge, Light Infantry, Tacarib Bay, The Wizard of Eye.
There are six rated today off 114 and 115. Native Trail is well clear of them all on 122.
VERDICT: Charlie Appleby stablemate Nations Pride boosted Native Trail at Newmarket yesterday but, ironically, beat Hoo Ya Mal seven lengths, whereas the Guineas hot-pot had five lengths to spare over the same horse on the same course in the Craven Stakes.
That may mean absolutely nothing at all but it does serve as a warning that we are only guessing, not least when we basically have only last year’s form to go on, which of these colts has come forward, which has stayed where they were?
1 NATIVE TRAIL It’s been a great help to me to get 3.5 the favourite on BETDAQ ante-post. Unbeaten in five starts, with a convincing double in the National Stakes and the Dewhurst as a two-year-old, so 7lb clear of his contemporaries and started the season well with a convincing Craven Stakes victory.
2 PERFECT POWER Enough speed to rattle off four out of five as a youngster at 5f and 6f, his Norfolk Stakes form boosted only on Thursday by the runner-up Go Bears Go, making all in the Commonwealth Cup Trial.
But he had no Power problem with 7f, winning the Greenham on his reappearance, and he is related to 1m 2f winners. His dam won the Arc, and he’s the ‘wrong’ price at 17.0 BETDAQ offers this morning.
3 LUXEMBOURG Unbeaten Camelot colt, winner of key races, the Beresford Stakes and the Doncaster Futurity. If he is to prove himself a Derby horse, as the stable insists, then he would be running on into the frame here.
4 COROEBUS Not seen this season but the talking horse for Godolphin until stablemate Native Trail won his trial but ‘could be anything.’
Wild card EYDON Eye-catching improver when went clear in the Feilden Stakes at the Craven Meeting, and has been a mover with the bookies during the week.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value remaining 17.0 Perfect Power, 32.0 Eydon
TACTICAL 15.0 ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket This class-2 6f sprint will split up into two or three groups, with low numbers best. In the last eight years, winners have come out of 3, 4, 5 and 6 (twice).
If you include gate seven, you take in a 7f winner here first race back last season. That’s the royal runner, Tactical, with Ryan Moore booked.
Winner of the Windsor Castle and the July Stakes, and once thought a Guineas horse.
Wind surgery could have put him back on track and he’s a ‘hidden horse’ here, dropped back to his winning trip among handicappers.
In the middle-to-farside group, Jumby scored over CD last May and over 7f back on the course in the autumn, despite a 9lb rise. Solid reappearance here 17 days ago.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 8.5 Jumby, 15.0 Tactical
STOUTE STILL HANDICAP KING
⭕ 2.05 Thirsk Hunt Cup Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six winners in his last 10 days’ racing, including the Group-2 Sandown Mile with Lights On, and has always had this in mind for Astro King since he ran too wide in the race last year and finished third.
Mark Crehan’s claim means that he’s 5lb better off with Cruyff Turn, who beat him little more than a length over a mile at York in August.
Delgrey Boy, who won a class-5 off 63 over today’s CD at this meeting a year ago, rose through the ranks to win the class-2 Straight-mile Series Final at Redcar off 78 in the autumn. He’s already run well this Spring.
BETDAQ value 5.9 Astro King, 12.5 Delgrey Boy
FALCON COULD SWOOP AT 11.5
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket Forest Falcon is too big at 11.5, getting nearly a stone from the Frankel colt, Dhahabi, whose form and pedigree suggest that he needs 1m 4f.
Both Dhahabi and Movin Time – absent a total of 854 days – have won when fresh and have Group experience, and Fast Medicine made a big leap forward first run gelded, though we can’t be sure the hood he wore that day will work again.
Fast Medicine and the AW winner Notre Belle Bete both have penalties and both have been easy to back this morning.
Forest Falcon has won over 1m 2f, is well drawn, and his September strike at Yarmouth came at the expense of winners of seven future races.
CLASS CASE OF VALUE IN HAND
⭕ 2.40 Goodwood Almohandesah is a tasty 6.5 offer on BETDAQ this morning as I write, surely worth taking of the Nell Gwyn runner-up to Cachet, touted for a good run in tomorrow’s 1,000 Guineas, the fillies’ first Classic.
Gets the three-year-old allowance of a stone from Primo Bacio, a Group performer but whose form first time and after a break is 0240, and is from a stable currently only 1-14.
⭕ 5.30 Punchestown Camprond (6.0 offers) looks good enough on the better ground for Philip Hobbs and Aidan Coleman to bring something back from Punchestown, which has been a triumph of a festival.
Camprond won twice on a decent surface in the autumn before finding 2m at Cheltenham (fourth) too sharp and the Coral Cup (fourth, staying on) surface too soft.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win TACTICAL
BET 2.5pts win JUMBY
2.05 Thirsk (win 20)
BET 4pts win ASTRO KING
BET 1.75pts win DELGREY BOY
2.25 Newmarket (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.75pts win FOREST FALCON
2.40 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win ALMOHANDESAH
3.40 Newmarket (win 20, place win 5 today)
BET 1.25pts win and place PERFECT POWER
ANTE-POST (win 50, nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET 20pts win NATIVE TRAIL
5.30 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 2pts win CAMPROND
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
