DAQMAN Sat: Newmarket NAP

11-2 AND 5-1 WINNERS AT NEWMARKET: Daqman has taken 16.0 and 18.0 offers on BETDAQ about three horses in the Cambridgeshire today and has three bets on the opening day of the Arc meeting at Longchamp. He’s hit on a nice-priced winner each day at Newmarket so far.

WON 11-2 COPPICE (Friday)
WON 5-1 RANGER THUNDERBOLT (Thursday, Betdaq 8.0 taken)

AN OUTSIDER FOR THE ARC TOMORROW: There could be a winning outsider in the Arc tomorrow and a Classic winner in waiting from the two-year-old tests of Lagardere and Marcel Boussac. Don’t miss Daqman’s verdict on them all.

MAJESTIC CAMBRIDGESHIRE DOUBLE

⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire Handicap) See yesterday’s preview.

1: MAJESTIC: Won this last year for Mick Channon and it would be huge personal pride for his son, Jack, if he can pull off the double from the low weight and high draw that helped the horse home in 2022.

Last to land two Cambridesghires was Rambo’s Hall (1989 and 1992) for Jeremy Glover who was so clued up on this race that he also won it in 1987 and 1996.

So the scores over the years include John Gosden (5), Jeremy Glover (4). Sir Mark Prescott (3) and two each for John Benstead, Luca Cumani, Marcus Tregoning, Roger Charlton and David Elsworth, so many stables doubles and trebles implying it’s a race that takes some knowing and is for 1m 1f specialist horses from handicap-specialist camps.

2: GREEK ORDER Roger Charlton has already won this twice and Greek Order, who has had only five races in his life, is the choice of Oisin Murphy, who had several possible mounts.

3: DUAL IDENTITY Brought back to form perfectly timed to avenge defeat off a low draw on the far side in this race last year; led a furlong out but the high-stall near side ran him out of it. Better off at the weights and in gate 16 today.

4: SAGA Beaten a head over today’s CD in May for a stable that’s won this five times. Quirky and cost Frankie Dettori a suspension but has hopefully had his head straightened out and Ryan Moore takes over. Stall 15.

5 Astro King and 6 Haunted Dream were in the first three twice in big handicaps at York in August and, while both could run well again, they obviously remain on a high mark for this renewed battle.

7 Paradias and 8 Arqboob are the stamina horses and could run into a place late on, though their win chances seem diminished by the firmish ground.

HEADS UP: Crack shot at weather forecasting? Ed Walker makes a fine point (or two) running Crack Shot, well drawn in 31. He took the Kingman gelding out of the last at Newmarket yesterday because of ‘unsuitable ground.’ The going yesterday ‘good to firm’; going stick 7.7. Today ‘good to firm;’ going stick 7.9.

Betdaq Betting Exchange 16 Dual Identity, 18 Majestic and Saga, (saver 4.6 Greek Order)

CADRAN HOPE FOR EMILY DICKINSON

⭕ 1.33 Longchamp (Prix Du Cadran, 2m 4f Group 1) This old boys’ party was won two years ago by Trueshan, who came back to form in the Doncaster Cup the last day.

But his rating has slipped 7lb since he landed five wins in a row in the 12 months to June last year.

The French opposition looks weak, with Skazino, Moon Wolf and Vert Liberte 1-2-4 in a Listed over shorter in the summer.

Run For Oscar won the 2022 Newmarket Cesarewitch but I think it’s a case of find the lady and the oldies may all have to bow the knee to Emily Dickinson.

She switches from the Arc to this after taking the Curragh Cup and running up to Quickthorn in the Goodwood Cup. ‘Hope is the thing..’

ALWAYS GAMBLE WITH A POKER FACE

⭕ 4.08 Longchamp (Prix Daniel Wildenstein) It’s a big weekend for Simon and Ed Crisford, who have Vandeek running at Newmarket and Algiers at Belmont. Poker Face could be pivotal.

He played the roll of nearly horse (form 2032) at Listed and Group level at Ascot, Chester and Sandown until late July and August on soft ground finally established his presence in Europe, completing a double by taking a Group 3 at Deauville from the front.

Embesto dead-heated at Salisbury with Mighty Ulyssees who let the form down yesterday.

Greenham winner Isaac Shelby was short-headed in the French Guineas and beaten a neck by the 119-rated Kinross at Goodwood but clearly seems to lack that vital thrust at the business end.

Flight Plan who won a Leopardstown Group 1 had been beaten by Poker Face in the summer (Hungerford winner Witch Hunter fourth).

⭕ 4.43 Longchamp (Prix Dollar) Erevann, who won the Wildenstein last year, now tries to win the Dollar, stepping up two furlongs here in first-time cheekpieces.

Horizon Dore bids for a four-timer in a strong field but I’ll go each way an outsider as Frankie Dettori tries to make all on Jack Darcy.

The Paul and Oliver Cole colt did just that in the Grand Prix de Deauville (1m 4f) under Cristian Demuro, who now rides Erevann!

BETDAQ value 9.7 Jack Darcy

VANDEEK BRED TO DO EVEN BETTER

Newmarket 2yo tests: 1.50 Royal Lodge Stakes, 2.25 Cheveley Park Stakes and 3.00 Middle Park Stakes: See stats in Thursday’s Daqman.

⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Middle Park Stakes 2yo, 6f) First leg of the Crisford’s treble bid starts here with Vandeek, winner of the Prix Morny from Ramatuelle and River Tiber.

In arriving at three-year-old ratings for next year’s Classic, we need to see how they will get on in totally different conditions.

And, unless Ed Walker (see above) has some divine message to the contrary, we get that dramatic change here from Morny ‘very soft’ to Newmarket ‘good to firm.’

Sire’s progeny reports for Vandeek (holds Jasour who, in turn, holds Lake Forest) say he will do even better on top of the ground; River Tiber has won two on ‘good’, including the Coventry (holds Givemethebeatboys); Task Force needs to improve but, as a Frankel, should love the ground.

DAQMAN’S BETS

1.33 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 7pts win EMILY DICKINSON

2.40 Haydock (win 12)
BET 3pts win MANILA SCOUSE

3.00 Newmarket (win 12 nap)
BET 6.6pts win VANDEEK

3.40 Newmarket (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 3.25pts win DUAL IDENTITY
BET 3pts win MAJESTIC
BET 3pts win SAGA
SAVER: 3pts win GREEK ORDER

4.08 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 3pts win POKER FACE

4.43 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 1.25pts win and place JACK DARCY

What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….

Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.

Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.

DAQMAN: Christmas Briefing

THE STRIKER: Boxing Day Thursday Preview

THE EDGE Thurs: Australia v India 4th Test

WHERE THE BIG WINNERS COME FROM: Four days and seven races of top two-year-old tests are not to be missed, while you spend your time on the Cambridgeshire and Arc de Triomphe form. There could be a legend waiting somewhere among them. Daqman provides the clues in advance.

BOOST FOR NEWMARKET NURSERY BET: One of Daqman’s tips yesterday, Chic Columbine (WON 100-30), gave a big boost to offers of 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning. It’s in the nursery on the opening day of Newmarket this afternoon.

A LEGEND WAITING SOMEWHERE

Two-year-old racing preview

⭕ 3.35 Newmarket today (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Five out of the last seven winners have been drawn in stall 2. Charlie Appleby and William Buick, who have combined for two of them, now run Legend Of Time.

Their 2021 winner Modern Games went on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and – the following season – the French 2,000 Guineas.

⭕ 3.00 Newmarket tomorrow (Rockfel Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Three of the last five winners were drawn 1 or 2. Team Gosden, winners of two of the last six, have Spiritual as a probable tomorrow.

Their 2022 winner Commissioning went on to take the Fillies Mile but did not run as a three-year-old.

And be warned that the race had been an absolute dead-end before that. The nine winners from 2013 To 2021 never scored again, losing a total of 39 times.

⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Saturday (Royal Lodge Stakes 2yo 1m) STATS: Aidan O’Brien 2, Team Gosden 2. Eight winners out of 10 were out of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. O’Brien has six left in at this stage.

The Foxes (2022) went on to win the Dante as a 3yo but the race hero was Roaring Lion (2017), who also won the Dante, and made four consecutive Group 1 strikes.

⭕ 2.25 Newmarket, Saturday (Cheveley Park Stakes 2yo 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has landed four winners in the last seven seasons, but the best of a weaker bunch in the decade, compared with its old popularity, was Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free (2020), subsequently winner of the Fred Darling, Coronation Stakes, Sussex Stakes and July Cup.

⭕ 3.00 Newmarket, Saturday (Middle Park Stakes 2yo, 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has won it three times in seven years but could have done without the first of them, US Navy Flag (2017),who was headlined for a plethora of races, including the Guineas, even the Derby at one stage after adding the Dewhrst to his bag!

But the War Front colt would lose eight times after, including six Group 1 and, brought back to sprinting, win only the 2018 July Cup.

⭕ 1.15 Longchamp, Sunday (Jean-Luc Lagardere 2yo colts 1m) STATS Eight out of 9 at Longchamp won from stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. Andre Fabre 3-8, winning the French 2,000 Guineas the following year with Victor Ludorum (2019).

Sealiway (2020) won the Champion Stakes and Angel Bleu (2021) the Celebration Mile but winners were not plentiful.

⭕ 1.50 Longchamp, Sunday (Marcel Bousac, 1m 2yo fillies) The only Group 1 in France for two-year-old fillies; best of all the trials this weekend, having produced Allez France (1972), Triptych (1984), Midway Lady (1985), Miesque (1986), Salsabil (1989), Finsceal Beo (2006), Zarkava (2007) Found (2014) and Blue Rose Cen (2022).

STATS: Aidan O’Brien (2), Charlie Appleby (2) in the decade; the favourites all blown out since Aidan O’Brien’s short-priced double with Ballydoyle and Found in 2014-15.

IMPROVING BUDGIE TO FLY HOME

⭕ 2.25 Newmarket today (1m nursery) Stormy Waves has just 4lb with which to turn around an easy defeat by Blown Away at Chelmsford so it doesn’t look likely.

Blown Away enjoyed the step up to a mile but the value today is Granny Budgie, who has improved with every race and is expected to stay.

She gave away 3lb at Doncaster when third to Chic Columbine, Daqman’s tip when scoring decisively yesterday.

Lambert had won three out of four at a low level when he tried class 2; he didn’t like it that the surface had turned soft and much will depend today on whether the forecast showers get into the ground.

Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.5 Blown Away, 8.6 Granny Budgie

⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (6f fillies handicap) Gale Force Maya won this in 2021, and landed five prizes, two of them for Listed races, last year but she hasn’t maintained that level of form this term, including when favourite at Pontefract in one of five losing starts.

‘Maya’ tries blinkers first time today, while Kinta – second in a Group 2 last year – adds a hood after wind surgery, highest rated of the three-year-olds.

Executive Decision has been on the premises at today’s level but had to resort to lower grades to get back to winning form on soft ground in August.

I prefer the Frankel filly Frankness who ran well in an Ascot handicap but showed the benefit of a rest when really getting hold of a race at Salisbury the last day and could go on from there. Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.0 taken.

THUNDERBOLT ON A NICE MARK

⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) See above.

It’s not beyond belief that the outsider Victory Shout can give stall 2 a sixth victory in eight seasons at a huge 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning.

By Frankel out of a Shamardal mare, he could yet ‘be anything’ after storming clear by nine lengths the last day over a previous five-lengths winner.

Otherwise it’s Gosden v O’Brien v Appleby, the usual triple-header at Group level. Eben Shaddad, Military and Legend Of Time all won green; the market may help you, if you want to choose between them.

⭕ 5.18 Newmarket (1m handicap) Three-year-olds dominate (five out of seven) and a low stall seems essential (gates 1, 2, 3, 4 have together bagged seven of the last nine winners).

Ranger Thunderbolt (out of 4) is an improver who tried and failed over a longer trip; he’s back to his winning distance here off a nice mark in the handicap. BETDAQ 8.0 taken this morning.