200-1 DOUBLE BID IN SUMMER JUMPS RACES: Daqman tips horses at 9.4 and 11.0 (in the Summer Hurdle) and 20.0 and 14.0 (in the Summer Plate) – doubles worth at least 200-1 – in a jumps jackpot bid at Market Rasen.
RIPOSTE THE NEW TALENT: Such is the punter-friendly BETDAQ market that he has two bets in the Irish Oaks, reckoning Riposte the new princess among fillies to beat the Epsom Oaks winner, Talent.
14 WINNERS IN SEVEN DAYS: Not a good day for Daqman yesterday – a non runner didn’t help – meant that he finished a week of winners with 14 in the seven days, maintaining his two-a-day average thanks to a banker bet on Maputo (WON 30-100), his 10th winning maximum-stakes bet from 14.
2.25 Newmarket Three-year-olds have a terrific record in this – 141311 since 2006 – and the Ribblesdale fifth and sixth behind Riposte, Waila and Gertrude Versed (second in the Cheshire Oaks and eighth to Talent at Epsom) set the scene for Irish Oaks day.
After only three runs, Waila should step up for the man (Sir Michael Stoute) who is a master at improving horses, as he did her sire, Notnowcato. The hood will help.
2.55 Market Rasen (Summer Hurdle) Local Hero is, indeed, just that: gambled-on winner of this last year, trained down the road near Louth, he appears to have shot up the handicap from the recorded winning weight of 10st 8lb to today’s top spot of 11st 12lb.
Not so. He is only 4lb higher on official ratings and has the 7lb claimer, Paul Bohan, who rode him to victory in the corresponding race.
The implication is that it’s not as strong a race as last year. Indeed, the 2012 top rating, Australia Day, who won it in 2010 but could finish only 12th last time, is down 8lb but still commands second spot in the handicap.
Barizan beat Local Hero at Haydock in May but is up 12lb. Coffee is also up in the weights (beat Australia Day at Stratford) but there’s no doubt he is on the upgrade.
Sea Lord should take them along most of the way but was hit a stone by the handicapper for completing his hat-trick. War Singer is not a threat, on a line through stablemate Street Entertainer but is handily weighted and goes particularly well fresh.
VERDICT: This is a cracking contest of six upwardly-mobile six-year-olds, four of them winners of nine races in their last three starts, with the year-old Barizan not out of it, despite the weights rise.
I’ll take Coffee (9.4 on BETDAQ this morning) from the bottom half of the handicap and Local Hero (11.0) from the top half.
3.30 Market Rasen (Summer Plate) Peter Bowen had four winners of this between 2003 and 2008 and his form figures for the race are 131113042 (beaten a short-head last year).
The Bowen runner today, Dineur, is on a hat-trick after success at 16 and 18 furlongs but is carrying a penalty into unknown territory: he’s never tried today’s trip before and his efforts at 21 and 22 furlongs have produced figures of 0203. He has modest form going right-handed.
Others are equally vulnerable: Galaxy Rock and Pineau De Re seem to need even further and some cut in the ground; Paddy the Hare is raised 12lb and up two grades after his CD win a fortnight ago.
But ‘Paddy’ was eased down that day to beat Gentleman Anshan (not much between him and Woolcombe Folly) and those two rivals can’t beat Problema Tic on a line through Buck Mulligan, though the Pipe horse doesn’t ‘Tic’ the box for distance.
‘Paddy’ is best of the Richard Newland trio. Stablemate Bobowen seems to need cut in the ground and has never won above class 3. And it may be that Brian Ellison’s is the stable to follow in this.
Ellison has two big chances: Bocciani, well clear of Gentleman Anshan on the course in May, and Viva Colonia. Dropped down from Graded level, he had a run on the Flat earlier in the week.
VERDICT: Viva Colonia (a huge 20.0 on BETDAQ this morning) won the Summer Hurdle here in 2011 and seems to have been aimed at today’s Plate, his last run over fences a solid effort in the Red Rum Chase at Aintree.
Stablemate Bocciani (14.0) is another big offer, with form over several leading contenders if the line through Gentleman Anshan can be believed.
3.50 Newbury (Weatherbys Super Sprint) Though six out of nine winners of this were from low stalls, high numbers dominated on the syraight course at Newbury yesterday, and there seems to be oodles of pace on that side today with Biography (in 23), Lexington Rose (19), Meritocracy (17) and Orton Park (20) all likely front-runners.
Six of those nine previous winners carried 8st 6lb or less, and they had something else in common: none had had more than four previous starts.
Alutiq, not disgraced in the Queen Mary (13 winners from 21 came from Royal Ascot to win this), stands out on the stats from stall 18,
Peniaphobia (10.0) had a Royal Ascot winner behind at York and then landed the Thirsk race won by the winner of this sprint last year. He’ll do for me from the low side.
VERDICT: The Ascot connection wins almost two out of three and the market is another good guide. That gives me Alutiq (6.8) and Peniaphobia (10.0) against the field.
Seven times winner Richard Hannon is greatly feared but which one to choose? Bird Of Light (35.0) is the fast-ground filly. The sire liked a road!
6.15 The Curragh (Irish Oaks, ABC Guide in Daqman Archive, Thursday): Should Chicquita win this, then Treve, the filly who beat her in the Prix De Diane, will shorten up in the Arc market.
In a normal year, Talent would do the Oaks double after running away with the Epsom version. It’s not a normal year but one of late development.
Talent won easily, but she needed to, since those behind were no great shakes, the runner-up a Listed winner, the third only fifth in a Group 2, and the fourth filly later right out the back door in the race won by Venus De Milo.
Unbeaten ‘Venus’ is here today and, meanwhile, Riposte’s rating shot through the roof after a scintillating Ribblesdale romp, in which she beat Curragh 1,000 Guiness third Just the Judge.
VERDICT: Hard to call but a magnificent 103% list of offers in the BETDAQ orange gave me a chance to back more than one. I’ll take Venus De Milio (8.2 is too big) and Riposte (4.0), with a stakes saver on Talent.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each, except stakes savers or Daq Multiples). A Value bet means the BETDAQ offers added up to less than 110%. Gold Value is when Daqman opposes the favourite in such a race.
VALUE BET: 15pts win (nap) WAILA (2.25 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 3.5pts win (Special Bet) COFFEE and 3pts win LOCAL HERO (2.55 Market Rasen)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2.3pts win BOCCIANI and 1.5pts win VIVA COLONIA (3.30 Market Rasen)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 5pts win ALUTIQ, 3.3pts win PENIAPHOBIA, and 0.8pts win and place BIRD OF LIGHT (3.50 Newbury)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 10pts win RIPOSTE, 4pts win VENUS DE MILO and 4.6pts win (stakes saver) TALENT (6.15 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES SUMMER JUMPS DOUBLE: 4 x 1pt win doubles COFFEE and LOCAL HERO (2.55 Market Rasen) with BOCCIANI and VIVA COLONIA (3.30 Market Rasen)
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