MORE SATURDAY BULL’S-EYE BETS: American Affair was one of the winning bull’s-eye bets last weekend when Daqman scooped 123 points profit from seven strikes. The same horse is fancied for the Ayr Gold Cup today but his win-50 tilts are at Newbury.
DAQMAN REPORTS FROM SOUTHWELL: However much I doubted the ‘best ever’ praise applied to City Of Troy, however much he proved me wrong, it has taken yesterday’s special gallop for me to see the awesome racing instinct of this superb athlete. Leaving the workout team struggling, he bolted away like a greyhound on the man-made surface.
REACH FOR THE MIRSKY
⭕ 1.15 Ayr (1m) Revich has won this twice in 2021 and 2023 – placed in between – off 92 and 95. At aged eight, he has dropped down the handicap a few pounds and is drawn in his winning slot of last year.
Yantarni landed a June hat-trick in cheekpieces and was only just touched off without them at Ascot after a break, but very easy to back this morning at 27.0.
BETDAQ 5.0 offer, Mirsky mastered Holloway Boy (big handicap winner since) when they were second and third in the Clipper at York last month.
DOOR AJAR TO WINNER
⭕ 1.50 Ayr (Doonside Cup, 1m 2f) Phantom Flight, who was an odds-on flop in this race two years back, has taken a small-field Listed (Sons And Lovers third) in eight races since but never with the same support behind him.
The handicapper Persica was placed in the Pattern on soft ground a month back, while Caviar Heights was gifted a Listed win at HQ in the Spring when most of the field failed to perform.
Enfjaar had a terrific run of form in the early summer, just a neck away from a hat-trick, and has had a break after failing to perform at York (2.5 lengths behind Phantom Flight at levels).
MERCHANT SILVER STALL
⭕ 2.25 Ayr (Silver Cup, 6f) The Bronze Cup action yesterday saw the far side go clear, with the result by stall 8-2-9.
Whatever that had to do with pace or running surface, it will guarantee that the jockeys want to be that side and the near side may split between those who want the rail and some who might risk moving nearer the middle of the track, on the blind side of the main group.
Emperor’s Son (11) is the hidden horse from Group 2, with the Coventry last year and the Gimcrack this, his only starts since breaking his maiden. ‘Could be anything’ but 54.0 is forbidding.
Bergerac (gate 2) could take them along but has twice been well beaten going for Silver, yet has finished sixth hunting up Gold.
Lucky Man (10) similarly flopped in the Silver last year but was a close fourth going for Gold in 2022 off 13lb higher than today and he should be in the running early on the far side. BETDAQ 31.0 taken.
Well behind Sergeant Pep (17) at Haydock in July but returned to form the last day, first-time blinkers replacing cheekpieces.
King Merchant (6) has gone step by step, 10lb up the ladder, from class–5 success to class 3 on the last day and has a tasty stall. BETDAQ 11.0.
Alfa Kelenic (22) made similar progress but ventured one step beyond to win at class 2 a furlong further at York and so carries a penalty.
Aramram (16) doesn’t have to have the soft ground of his impressive win on Sunday but makes a quick return and is unpenalised. Expect him to take the middle along. BETDAQ 12.0.
AFFAIR FORM RED HOT
⭕ 3.35 Ayr (Gold Cup, 6f) The result by stall of the Silver Cup may enlighten or further confuse us.
Until we know it, we have to assume dominance of the far side after gates 8-2-9 landed first three in the Bronze yesterday.
Whether to do with pace or running surface, it beckoned the jockeys to that far side. Does that hold or has it all changed after the Silver?.
I followed a soft-ground horse last year, drawn 14 and held up in the rear of the centre group. Though baulked at one stage, he landed me a nice touch by a neck from Ramazan.
Ramazan (14 today) also came down the centre out of gate 12. I see he’s finished second four more times since then; such a sequence is a sign that the handicapper has hold of him, or the horse doesn’t want to make that final effort. Or both.
Room Service (22) his high draw and penchant for a soft surface seem to be against him but Lethal Levi should give him a tow from gate 20.
Rohaan (8), the one-time Wokingham winner, was seventh last year off an 8lb higher mark, and was a market mover in the week; down to 10.0 in offers on the BETDAQ exchange.
American Affair (4), second twice and third at Ayr last summer, has improved 24lb this year, with form figures of 1212231, all over 5f or so but he has won over 6f and 7f in the past. BETDAQ 6.5 this morning.
Mostabshir (15) ran fourth in the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood but won only a couple of novice events early in his career.
POWER TO THE CHAMPION
⭕ 2.05 Newbury (Autumn Cup) Waxing Gibbous showed he was on a winning mark when only Epic Poet could better him at Haydock, the rest nearly five lengths back.
Knightswood was fourth, maintaining his reputation as the unluckiest horse in training. The handicapper thinks so, too; despite the five-year-olds nine defeats in a row, he won’t budge more than a pound or two.
We even had him in the Fortune Cookies list, and I thought when we gave up on him, he would teach us a lesson at a big price. It hasn’t happened so far.
At 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning, Lieber Power (Oisin Murphy) hasn’t run a bad race this year and his second to Shadow Dance the last day is probably the best form on show. Bred to like it deepish and 2-2 on good to soft.
Our Golden One has looked right for this step up in trip and has got his ground. Form on soft-heavy 1132.
Ithaca’s Arrow is nicely placed in the handicap and will also like the ground but can he follow up his Chester success after only seven days’ break.
MOORE RIDING A CRACKER
⭕ 2.40 Newbury Canoodled did me a favour at the Ebor meeting at 25-1 but that was on a sound surface.
When Not So Sleepy won the Autumn Cup last year, he had Laafi well behind. Laafi then won on heavy ground at Newmarket, dropped back to 1m 2f, which is the distance of today’s race.
Bolster’s record has been bolstered by his fourth at the Curragh to subsequent St Leger winner, Jan Brueghel, and his form before that on good and soft was 1111.
Best form of the progeny of Cracksman is on the soft and Richard Hughes has booked Ryan Moore for Whip Cracker, Listed placed twice before being gelded. Lightly raced and ‘could be anything.’
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.2 Bolster, 7.7 Whip Cracker, 11.5 Laafi
TACTICIAN’S AUTUMN PLOT
⭕ NAP OF THE DAY: 3.55 Newmarket (Cesarewitch Trial) Whether you back it today for this trial and/or for the ‘real thing’ in October, Tactician has been shaping like a Cesarewitch winner but, be warned, he’s also entered in the Irish Cesarewitch (September 29). A good thing at the weights here then, surely, in first-time cheekpieces.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Ayr (win 20)
BET 5pts win MIRSKY
1.50 Ayr (win 12)
BET 4pts win ENFJAAR
2.25 Ayr (win 30, win 15 x 2)
BET 1pt win and place LUCKY MAN
BET 1pt win and place ARAMRAM
BET 1.5pts win and place KING MERCHANT
2.05 Newbury (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 9pts win LIEBER POWER
2.40 Newbury (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7.5pts win WHIP CRACKER
BET 4pts win BOLSTER
BET 2pts win LAAFI
3.35 Ayr (win 22 and 20)
BET 4pts win AMERICAN AFFAIR
BET 2pts win ROHAAN
3.55 Newmarket (win 15 nap)
BET 10pts win TACTICIAN
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