THE GREAT VALUE CHALLENGE
DAQMAN 54, PRICEWISE 20 Daqman leads Racing Post man Pricewise 54-20 this Flat season in the continuing hunt for winners in the top feature races, with Ascot (2.05, 3.15) and Haydock (2.20, 2.55) the focus of attention today.
RAIN SPOILS HUGE GAMBLE It’s never easy as yesterday’s bet on Zanetto at Newmarket bears witness. Daqman’s fabulous 14.5 on BETDAQ looked like a big-hit gamble as he was backed in to 5-2 joint favourite but didn’t act after the rain. Daqman’s consolation was the sprint in Ireland, Sir Maximilian (WON 2-1).
14.5 CHOICE FOR SHERGAR START
* SHERGAR CUP WINNING TEAM: 5pts win REST OF THE WORLD (4.2)
* SHERGAR CUP TOP JOCKEY: 1pt win SMANGA KHUMALO (19.5)
12.55 Ascot The stats suggest that we don’t look outside the first four in the final market for any of these cup races, with an above-average 65% of winners 6-1 or shorter at SP.
Richard Hughes, Frankie Dettori, and Hayley Turner are a league apart in riding at this meeting, with the winningmost stables – Andrew Balding, Mark Johnston, Clive Cox and William Haggas – similarly clear of the remainder.
Swan Song (3rd, 9lb lower than today) last year used this as a stepping-stone to the Great Surrey Handicap (Epsom later in the month).
Racy, 5th last year and rated 101 after a recent CD win, is also too high on past form records, with 16lb to make up on Kingsgate Choice on their 1-2 in the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh in June last year.
Kingsgate Choice drops down from the Pattern, with trainer Ed de Giles currently striking at 50%, Steffi Hofer in the saddle and a terrific 14.5 on BETDAQ early mouse.
1.30 Ascot Ebor-targeted Hassle was three wins from four at around 1m 6f, before being blown away by Maid In Rio in the Brown Jack Stakes (Sir Frank Morgan behind) over today’s CD at Ascot. Third was Kashgar, whose winning form is two grades lower than this. Biggest threat to Hassle may be Edge Of Sanity (7.0 on BETDAQ as I write).
Mutual Regard, the ‘moral’ in this race last year, beaten a neck, giving 3lb to the winner, was himself in receipt of weight when taking a handicap at The Curragh in June for Jim Bolger. The ‘moral’ this time was runner-up Edge Of Sanity.
2.05 Ascot It’s not easy to find a horse guaranteed to get the trip on the ground and the reserves are a danger to everything I tip in every race for this reason: if the going gets softer, some acceptors may want to cry off.
This is so open they were betting 6.4 the field, with eight horses within the range 6.4 to 11.5. Once the early races establish a clearer state of the ground – can we rely on Channel 4 to ask the jocks? – there will be a market move here.
Of the early favourites, Semeen is unlikely to go on the ground – his brother, Danadana, is a firm-surface animal – but Grandorio (I took 6.4 on BETDAQ) has won on soft and over 2m, so Dettori could make plenty of use of him against the doubtful stayers.
Presburg and Communicator are high in the handicap; Charles Camoin looks exposed; Bantam was expected to need a firm surface; so, too, Dolphin Village if he stepped out of the reserve team.
2.40 Ascot Back-to-form Magic City ran a cracker on the firm in the Goodwood Mile and, as a winner with cut in the ground who won four out of five last season, he should be a force here.
3.15 Ascot Pack Leader, Our Gabrial, Mr Gallivanter are all front-runners, none with any success with cut in the ground.
Wrangler has won twice on the soft and conditions should also favour Trip To Paris (ridden by the South African champion jockey), Astronereus and Snow Squall.
I think there’s a lot more to come from Trip To Paris, a CD winner recently after running sixth in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot after Ed Dunlop’s team had been under a cloud: 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.50 Ascot Remember showed immediate improvement dropped back to 6f in June and was the ‘moral’, giving weight to the winner (Deeds Not Words) when badly drawn on the July Course.
The result by draw was 16, 2, 17, 18, with Remember in the 2 stall, and the going was soft. The 8.2 I took on BETDAQ this morning was a bonus.
TRUE STORY OR MORNING GLORY?
2.20 Haydock Horses aged three and four are 6/7 in this, and there’s not much between stablemates Salutation and Busatto on their third and fourth behind Sennockian Star (also a Mark Johnston) at Goodwood.
This is so wide open, that BETDAQ layers went 9.0 (Rye House) the field in a 105% orange this morning. On all known form, Rye House needs rain but only light showers are forecast. I took 10.0 Lahaag.
The handicapper may regret dropping Lahaag 7lb, putting him nearly a stone better in with Salutation on Duke Of Edinburgh form at Royal Ascot.
He needs this to be made a stayers’ race and that’s just what could happen with a Johnston brace of front-runners, with Salutation needing a claim and Joe Fanning on Busatto (12.0).
2.55 Haydock (Rose Of Lancaster Stakes) Strangely, here’s Danadana – full brother to Semeen (2.05 Ascot) – already a Group winner, alongside Hillstar and Vancouverite; nothing else in this field.
But Vancouverite couldn’t win a Listed at Newbury when blinkered first time; Danadana must have fast ground and Hillstar is something of a bridesmaid, with three seconds in a row, no cigar.
I listened to a jockey yesterday (Paul Hanagan about Etaab) but Kieren Fallon is adamant – no vehement – that we have yet to see the best of True Story, who works like a dream for him on the gallops.
This is last-chance saloon, or he must go down forever as a morning glory. Hillstar looks sure to grind it out and, with the orange adding up to superb value at 101%, I can back both.
3.35 Newmarket (Sweet Solera Stakes) Punters hardly ever get this fillies’ two-year-old ‘classic’ wrong, with six winning favourites in a row and no winner above 5-1 in the decade.
Godolphin are going for a six-timer with Winters Moon, who gets 5lb from Arabian Queen but David Elsworth’s filly has already won a grade higher on the soft, looking not so much precocious but already mature for her age. The ground may be the equaliser.
DAQMAN’S BETS
SHERGAR CUP (staked to win 20 points)
BET 1.4pts win and place KINGSGATE CHOICE (12.55 Ascot)
BET 3.3pts win EDGE OF SANITY (1.30 Ascot)
BET 3.7pts win GRANDORIO (2.05 Ascot)
BET 5pts win MAGIC CITY (2.40 Ascot)
BET 3.5pts win TRIP TO PARIS (3.15 Ascot)
BET 2.4pts win REMEMBER (3.50 Ascot)
REST OF THE DAY (staked to win 30 points)
BET 3.3pts win LAHAAG and 2.7pts win BUSATTO (2.20 Haydock)
BET 8.5pts win HILLSTAR and 6.3pts win TRUE STORY (2.55 Haydock)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) ARABIAN QUEEN and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) WINTER’S MOON (3.35 Newmarket)
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