SOFT ON A SUNSHINE CAMBRIDGESHIRE: The going changed from soft to heavy and back again at Newmarket yesterday when jockeys said it wasn’t as bad as it seemed. Today’s guessing game of ‘soft but even good to soft’ for the Cambridgeshire depends on how drying is the Saturday morning sun. Vital to check after the first race.
GOSDEN ‘AMAZED’ AT THE TRACK: There were six withdrawals but John Gosden thought the course not testing enough this morning to take out Roi De France and left him in. He was ‘amazed’ how it had dried up.
HAYDOCK HEAVY! Haydock returned heavy ground (soft in places) yesterday, with scattered showers forecast during today.
CAMBRIDGESHIRE TOP TWENTY
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire, 1m 1f): High numbers (21 to 29 best) have dominated (see Wednesday’s Daqman) in the last eight years. Watch the first four races for how the surface behaves and where the jockeys choose to race (stalls centre).
🔢 DAQMAN’S ORDER IN
1: RON O (stall 37) (Ray Craggs) Loves the long run-in at York and Newmarket should suit. Better off with runner-up Dual Identity after 5th over 1m 2f, not clear run. Versatile to both trip and ground.
2: GODWINSON (27) (William Haggas) winning form on good to soft; well drawn and stays further. Fourth behind Ron O before taking a break, then winning at Goodwood.
3: TOIMY SON (11) (David Menuisier) William Buick booked for a stable hitting the headlines this year; did it again yesterday with Sirona.
Won when stepped up to the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood, going clear in the final furlong and promising more from his hold-up style. Dutch Decoy 2nd, stopped in his run; Bopedro 5th. Dam’s side loved soft.
4: PONIROS (16) Went second final furlong in the London Gold Cup (1m 2f), beaten by Group-2 horse who was third to Los Angeles in the Voltigeur. Made the Cambridgeshire cut after withdrawals yesterday.
ALSO RUN in ABC order:
BALMACARA Soft-heavy scorer but not won beyond 7f and drawn 1. However, well backed last night.
LIBERTY LANE Doncaster winner on soft a year ago but may be badly drawn in stall 4. Same big weight was carried by last year’s winner but not so viable with cut in the ground.
LION OF WAR Second at Royal Ascot in 2023, has had just one comeback run in a year. Hidden horse but best form all on good to firm.
MAJESTIC Fourth in 2023 Lincoln here at Doncaster (heavy), with Empirestateofmind 7th, Bopedro 8th.
NORWALK HAVOC Soft-heavy winner after being gelded. Well drawn in 26.
ROI DE FRANCE Never out of the first two in only three runs since the debut, but all on GF, favourite every time. Well drawn in 25.
Trainer John Gosden passed the course for him to take part this morning at 10 a.m. Conditions were not as testing, as he had at first thought.
SILVER SWORD winning form on firm.
THEORYOFEVERYTHING Grey Frankel gelding, winning form on soft ground and stays the trip well. Stall 10; closely matched with Bennetot and Paddy The Squire.
THIS SONGISFORYOU Winner on good ground and on (Irish) yielding. Drawn down the middle in 17, but needs cover for strong turn of foot. Drifted yesterday when the ground was soft but well supported since trainers walked the track.
TOLSTOY Likes soft ground. Well drawn in 31. Best form over 7f .
Betdaq Betting Exchange 9.5 Roi De France, 11.5 The Songisforyou, 13.5 Godwinson, 14 Poniros, 32 Toimy Son, 36.0 Ron O (offers at 10,15 a.m.)
BIG-FOUR 2YO TESTS
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes): Wimbledon Hawkeye ran Derby favourite, The Lion In Winter, to a length and a half at York but that was on a firm surface.
Top sires Frankel and Justify are represented by Luther and Angelo Buonarotti respectively.
Puppet Master is Aidan O’Brien’s pick of eight entries, and rider Ryan Moore landed a hat-trick here yesterday.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Cheveley Park Stakes): Usual for punters to ignore the form of French runners behind the winner of races in France.
So it is with Daylight, who didn’t see a lot of that in the Morny won by Aidan O’Brien’s Whistlejacket, and now runs against her own sex.
Babouche had beaten Whistlejacket in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on firm ground.
I can’t remember O’Brien running a Moyglare winner so quickly, and even more so to drop her in trip for this. Lake Victoria is a FORTUNE COOKIE.
⭕ 2.35 Curragh (Beresford Stakes) Aidan O’Brien has won 12 of the last 15 Beresfords and 21 in all since 1996.
He saddles Trinity College and Lambourn in a five-horse race but Hotazhell (Jessica Harrington) is a likely favourite, though beaten by O’Brien’s Henri Matissse in the Futurity here.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Middle Park Stakes): Whistlejacket, who was beaten by Babouche in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on firm, went to Deauville for the soft ground and won the Morny.
HAYDOCK HANDICAPS
⭕ 1.30 Haydock: Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight. Dashing Darcey is a CD winner here and his sire’s progeny has their best strike-rate on the soft (34%).
Sons of the sire of handicap debutant, Skipper, have a good strike rate on heavy, with five wins from nine runs (56%) and 30% on soft.
Earls won as favourite on Haydock soft for Gavin Cromwell in the Spring. Long odds in all six big-field races before and after that but well in with penalised Rhoscolyn (now withdrawn) on Epsom form.
⭕ 3.15 Haydock: Heavy-ground winner Aberama Gold is 15lb lower than for the start of his year. BETDAQ 6.5.
He gets more than that – 16lb, in fact – from the progressive Wiltshire, who is too often slowly away and has no form in the mud. His sire won on soft but didn’t like it heavy.
CD winner Jer Batt seldom runs a bad race and is a winner and second here this season but it’s noticeable that his rating has been stuck on this mark for 15 months.
Heavy-ground winner Blind Beggar has had just one recent prep run for this since beating Silky Wilkie in the Spring, whereas Silky Wilkie has had eight races and has to recover from his Ayr Gold Cup second last week. BETDAQ 12.5.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Haydock (win 12 each)
BET 3.75pts win SKIPPER
BET 3pt s win DASHING DARCEY
1.50 Newmarket (win 22.5)
BET 5pts win PUPPET MASTER
2.25 Newmarket (win 40)
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win LAKE VICTORIA
3.00 Newmarket (supernap)
BET 20pts win WHISTLEJACKET
3.15 Haydock (win 20, win 12)
BET 3.5pts win ABERAMA GOLD
BET 1pt win and place BLIND BEGGAR
3.40 Newmarket (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 4pts win GODWINSON
BET 3.75pts win PONIROS
BET 1.6pts win TOIMY SON
BET 1.4pts win and place RON O
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