7-4 NAP UP FOR 140 POINTS PROFIT: Conas Taoi (WON 7-4) at Sandown yesterday was Daqman’s third winning best bet of the week, following Steal The Scene (WON 5-1) and Singlefarmpayment (WON 5-4) for a naps profit in the five days of 140 points to 20 points level stakes. He’s had 10 consecutive naps in the first three.
AINTREE AND SANDOWN BIG RACES: Daqman is now on 13 winning naps since the start of the NH season proper and is 8-2 up on Pricewise as they face off in the 1.40 Aintree, then the 2.25 and 3.35 Sandown today, in which he finds another lay to try to add to his score of 18 from the last 20. So his season’s form is:
Naps: 113211011101F001F2123211221
Bankers: 2111F1121
Lays: 1111111111111xx11111
Challenge: Daqman 8, Pricewise 2 (overall 254-97)
BETDAQ ORANGE TASTY 8.0 ABOUT FLUTE BOWL
12.15 Sandown Nicky Henderson is six in a row in this and that would normally be licence for a killing with his favourite, O O Seven, but there is the spectre of Premier Bond over the race.
Bond is Henderson’s seeming second string but last year he won the race with his 14-1 outsider and his 3-1 shot was second. I’m a bit shaken by that; and not stirred to plunge on O O Seven.
12.45 Sandown I doubt she’s Chinese so Flute Bowl could bear fruit for Gary Moore, who landed a hat-trick here yesterday.
She was almost knocked over in a shorter race at Huntingdon on the last day but had stormed in over today’s trip at Fontwell.
The worries are that she needs to be fresh and that her 8lb rise makes this difficult. The pluses are the trainer form, the return to mares-only company and the tasty 8.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
Lady of Longstone is expected to try to make all but takes a rise in class and, though Brise Vendeene seems nicely placed in the handicap, she is still only four and has ruined her chances time and again with poor jumping, including since switched from Nick Williams to Phillip Hobbs.
1.20 Sandown Long absences logged by Doctor Harper, Keltus and Taj Badalandabad make this tricky for punters, particularly with all three of them capable of winning when fresh.
1.55 Sandown Willows Saviour, a glass horse with only four runs in two years, looks long in the tooth for novice chases and, like Ar Mad and Bristol De Mai, takes a keen hold.
The money this morning was all for Bristol – impressive at Warwick – with Irish raider Sizing Codelco not wanted at 9.0. I thought the 5.2 As Du Mee looked good.
As De Mee loves Sandown. He jumped well at Cheltenham but has a 75% strike-rate going right-handed. Saver: Bristol De Mai.
‘MIO’ CAN MAKE LIGHT OF THE HANDICAP
2.25 Sandown Favourite this morning was a nine-year-old who hasn’t won a hurdle race since November, 2011. Savello is surely a lay.
Devilment and Lil Rockerfeller have a lot of work to do at the weights: there’s been only one winner of this in the decade with more than 11st 5lb.
Some Plan is likely to be keen and a novice racing freely is asking for something with experience to wear him down on the hill. In any case, he’s prepping for a chasing career.
And again we have Paul Nicholls splitting his aces, with Harry Cobden taking a valuable 7lb off Vicenzo Mio (that’s ‘off of’ if you live in Essex).
With Charlie Hammond’s 10lb claim, Ebony Express is also down at the bottom of the handicap and should be fitter than on his seasonal debut.
The going on the hurdles course is soft, and the two lightweights, Vicenzo Mio (6.8 on BETDAQ, as I write) and Ebony Express (I took 9.8) will be hard to beat.
VIBRATO SET FOR A CHAMPION CHALLENGE
3.00 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase) I previewed this race in my ABC Guide on Thursday (see icon for Daqman Archive)
This column is looking for leg one of a double-whammy with Vibrato Valtat, as winner of the Tingle Creek, going on to the Champion Chase at the 16.5 ante-post taken on BETDAQ (he’s 14.0 this morning).
If he wins the Tingle Creek, we will surely have ‘overs’ in the Cheltenham market (his price will be reduced). That means we can sit tight and treat the Champion Chase as a free bet, or use our position for further trades in the market, maybe also having to back his stablemate Dodging Bullets.
Vibrato Valtat ticks all the stats-and-facts boxes today, and trainer Paul Nicholls has won the Tingle Creek eight times and had four others placed from 13 starters since 1999.
Third Intention and Mr Mole are likely to lead, with Special Tiara unusually saved up for a finish in deference to the strong opposition.
Trainer Gary Moore hit form with a Sandown hat-trick yesterday, and Sire De Grugy should be a different proposition to when nearly 40 lengths off Vibrato Valtat in the Haldon Gold Cup.
Somersby has finished second the last twice but a place is the best he can hope for at his age
JUST A PAR TEED UP WIN AND PLACE AT 15.0
3.35 Sandown (London National) The race returns to quality after last year’s 10lb sub-standard race and, on drying ground, weight-carrying is possible, including by Just A Par, who won the Sandown Gold Cup over CD in April and has 8lb more.
Sean Bowen picked them off like sitting ducks that day, allowing Just A Par to sail through the field from the rear in his own time.
Carole’s Destrier is another old-fashioned staying type but we haven’t seen him beat a decent-sized field since winning the BETDAQ Silver Plate at Kempton over hurdles in March, 2014 and he didn’t look comfortable with a big weight on the last day at Wincanton.
Bertie Boru is from the same yard as yesterday’s marathon winner.
Restless Harry, Mountainous and Count Guido Deiro need a bog whereas it’s drying out on the chase course. In any case, Guido can’t beat Bertie on Sandown form at the start of the year.
I think Just A Par could prove better class, and 15.0 on BETDAQ this morning was just the ticket.
‘ARE’ YOU READY FOR BIG BECHER VALUE?
1.40 Aintree (Becher Chase) Imagine you are in a half-marathon, only they put the occasional row of fir trees in the way.. or almost. So you need a horse with a lightish weight who has jumped the ‘trees’ before.
Only once on soft ground has there been a winner in the decade carrying more than 10st 12lb. Only once has a favourite scored.
But the biggest clue to the outcome is that six of the last seven winners had all jumped well for all, or part of, a race over these big Grand National fences, including the National itself or the Topham.
That points up the chances of Unioniste, Goonyella, Saint Are, Dolatulo, Soll, Pineau De Re, Portrait King and Highland Lodge.
Saint Are was third and Highland Lodge eighth (Goonyella unseated rider) in last year’s Becher. Pineau De Re fell in it the year before.
But he went on to win the 2014 Grand National, and was brought back to form for this in a veterans’ race at Sandown last month.
A penalised Pineau was only 12th in the 2015 National, but the handicapper has now rewound the clock and dropped him 12lb, which is even lower than when he won in 2014.
But second in the National this year, well in front of him, was Saint Are, confirming his love of the fences that he’d shown in the 2014 Becher. Soll was 9th, Dolatulo 19th and last.
Soll faded only from the last ditch but would have finished behind Portrait King, who was with the leaders from the start until he fell when tired three out.
Saint Are at 11.5 and Portrait King at 17.0 are both big value in BETDAQ, at the time of writing.
2.15 Aintree Here’s April’s Grand National winner, Many Clouds, confronting the Cheltenham RSA one-two, Don Poli and Southfield Theatre.
Fascinating stuff but, as with so many Graded races, or their trials, at this time of year, punters have to choose between recent form and past form, and guess who will set what kind of pace in a small field of tactics and slow jumping.
2.45 Aintree I’ve looked at winners of this going right back and you need class: horses which have scored, or gone close, in Listed or class 2.
Only Qualando, Virgilio and Karinga Dancer have shown that quality of form, though Un Ace and Handiwork (11.5 offers) have kept good company.
And interesting that Steve Gollings, who had a winner on the last day of November with his first runner for some time, has booked Richard Johnson for Handiwork.
ROSS THREAT TO ROCKY CREEK EXPERIMENT
3.20 Aintree (Grand Sefton) Another half-marathon over the Grand National fences. Again, just the one winning favourite in the decade, and young horses under eight find it too much like hard work at this stage of their careers.
This is an interesting move, bringing Rocky Creek down in trip, and he’s a decent price at 7.2 as a result. But over these big fences I can see only Double Ross (6.4) being a threat.
I hope that, as you’ve been going through the BETDAQ markets, checking where offers have been revised on my selections, you will still get the incredible value of 102-104% lists in the orange that was a feature all the way through both big-race cards this morning.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 30 points, except lays, banker and bull’s-eye bets)
LAY 5pts BRISE VENDEENNE and BET 4.2pts win FLUTE BOWL (12.45 Sandown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4.7pts win SAINT ARE, and 3pts win and place PORTRAIT KING (1.40 Aintree)
BET 7pts win AS DE MEE and 4pts win (stakes saver) BRISTOL DE MAI (1.55 Sandown)
LAY 5pts SAVELLO and BET 5pts win VICENZO MIO and 3.4pts win EBONY EXPRESS (2.25 Sandown)
BET 2.6pts win and place HANDIWORK (2.45 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) VIBRATO VALTAT (3.00 Sandown)
BET 5.5pts win DOUBLE ROSS AND 4.8pts win ROCKY CREEK (3.20 Aintree)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 3.5pts win and place JUST A PAR (3.35 Sandown)
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