HIGH FIVE BIG-RACE SATURDAY DESPITE THE BAD GROUND: Daqman delves into five big races today across the cards at Aintree and Sandown, with heavy ground threatening upsets and already responsible for the defection of Altior from the Tingle Creek. The high five are:
Becher Chase
IT’S A WALK IN THE PARK FOR MILL
Henry V111 Chase
IS THIS ALLMANKIND’S EL DORADO?
Tingle Creek Chase
COTTONWOOL-HERO ALTIOR QUITS
London National
ANOTHER NATIONAL DAY FOR GLEN
Grand Sefton
DOLLAR COULD LEAD THEM A DANCE
IT’S A WALK IN THE PARK FOR MILL
⭕ 1.30 Aintree (Becher Chase) Walk In The Mill was prepped in the Autumn Gold Cup at Ascot on the last day of October to attempt a third consecutive victory in this race. I think he can do it at a morning 6.5 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Walk In The Mill meets his old adversary, Vieux Lion Rouge, who was second in the race in 2018, after winning it himself the previous year.
Vieux Lion Rouge Only once in the decade has the winner carried more than 10st 12lb (when Blaklion beat The Last Samuri in 2017, a top-class renewal) and Rouge is 18lb better off with The Mill on their one-two of 2018.
He hasn’t done an awful lot since, except for taking a veterans chase at Chepstow 14 months back, and Tom Scudamore seems to prefer Ramses De Teillee.
Kimberlite Candy, second to Walk In The Mill a year ago, is 8lb worse off after winning the Warwick Classic by 10 lengths.
Le Breuil has threatened to do well in these events, after his NH Chase win at Cheltenham (2019), but has been expensive to follow. Now 9lb lower than when seventh last year.
Yala Enki was third in both the Coral Welsh Grand National last December and in the Haydock Grand National Trial in the Spring. Place bet.
Smooth Stepper Won the Trial at Haydock, well clear of Yala Enki, but that success came out of the blue at 33-1 and he hasn’t stepped up smoothly since.
Ramses De Teillee takes a keen hold. Would have lost out to Yala Enki in a few more strides when they met at Cheltenham last November and doesn’t have form over a real marathon trip. He was always struggling when trying these big fences in the Grand National of 2019.
IS THIS ALLMANKIND’S EL DORADO?
⭕ 1.50 Sandown (Henry V111 Chase) Half the field are four-year-olds. They had a purple patch in the race (2006-8 including Fair Along) but nothing before or since.
Though only four, Allmankind has overtaken his more experienced rivals here to land top rating of 153, plus his age allowance. But, at such an age, Hitman and Ga Law can improve, too. They are only 3-4lb behind, and Ga Law has improved 22lb for three wins since early October.
Allmankind became a Fortune Cookie ‘early bird’ when, receiving 8lb, he beat Zanza 13 lengths at Warwick 29 days back, absolutely cruising. He was offered 3.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
Zanza, who then won easily at Newbury, could be the key to the generations. He was beaten 17 lengths by Eldorado Allen at levels in October.
My simple maths has Eldorado way out in front. But those developing four-year-olds, particularly Allmankind, could make big inroads into the apparent discrepancy.
And Eldorado is trained by Colin Tizzard, who last Saturday had my joint top ratings for the Ladbrokes Trophy and they were both scuppered within nine fences.
Winners at Wincanton in the week seemed to be a saving grace, but yesterday his wonder horse, 9-2 ON The Big Breakaway, ran like a clothes-horse.
Raw, clumsy, edgy, never once comfortable or showing a glimpse of the inspirational. Yes, such a horse must be tested over different trips, and allowance is made for novices needing teaching and experience, but this was a different animal to the one that impressed at Cheltenham.
It’s up to the punter to make his own assessment and be wary of novices but it was heartening to hear Venetia Williams warn against her favourite in the novices’ chase, Funambule Sivola.
One reason for overblown profiles is TV pundits who want to erect statues to a horse before it’s even got off the ground in its career. You could tell the interviewer didn’t want to accept Venetia’s playing down Sivola’s chances. Surely he won well at Wetherby? Yes, but this is different.
COTTONWOOL-HERO ALTIOR QUITS
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase) See Thursday Daqman preview : Rouge Might Cause Red Faces.
‘Rain has wrecked the return of Altior,’ announced Nicky Henderson last night, concerned for a second reappearance defeat after Ascot last year on similar bad ground.
Not quite the same, though, Nicky, is it. Ascot was an experimental race, in which Altior was tried over 2m 5f, amid a ballyhoo of how the trip wouldn’t stop a great champion.
His defeat doesn’t look so crushing in hindsight, since the winner, Cyrname, a pound in front of him in the ratings then, is now reckoned 4lb his superior and a champion in his own right.
We should stop playing the tune of ‘our poor hero’, and return to the good old refrain ‘the weather is the same for everyone’, and worry for the sake of the industry’s health why a horse won’t run at 10 years of age unless he is going to win!
I can’t remember Arkle dodging a huge weight concession on soft for the old Hennessy. A horse of stature runs for the public.
Our cottonwool hero leaves Tingle Creek defence by the old boys to Politologue, whom Altior had beaten three times. He could still have his peak at nine, as used to be the case with chasers.
Fortune Cookies, which had a strong percentage even with two bets – Greaneteen and Rouge Vif against Altior and Politologue – will now have to accept an overall short price about the young bloods. I think we’ll still win.
Of course, we could lay Politologue. Thanks to BETDAQ, we have alternatives when confronted by a trainer’s fait accompli.
ANOTHER NATIONAL DAY FOR GLEN
⭕ 3.00 Sandown (London National) Doing Fine won this last year but was disqualified because riders ignored the stop-flag.
He ran well in the Southern National at Fontwell last month but Cloudy Glen (BETDAQ 3.4) was 13 lengths too good and is five years younger.
⭕ 3.35 Sandown Mister Coffey went clear over this CD the last day and, though up in the weights, carries less in the saddle and should improve again at the age of five.
Everything close to Benson in his back-to-back wins has run well since but without winning.
Jolly’s Cracked It has a big chance, down in the handicap and down in trip but he’ll be 12 in a few weeks’ time, and is booked for a place at best.
Solo was punished for romping the Adonis in February but the handicapper has revised his opinion.
He’s dropped back to within a pound of his mark that day and the heavy-ground Auteuil winner must go well here, despite the steadier of 11st 12lb but will be ace when jumping fences.
Mister Coffey went clear over this CD the last day and, though up in the weights, carries less in the saddle
DOLLAR COULD LEAD THEM A DANCE
⭕ 3.15 Aintree (Grand Sefton) Modus and Springtown Lake are equalised by the handicapper after their one-two eight lengths apart at Aintree in November but that was on the Mildmay course. These are Grand National fences.
But punters are struggling to find one who can cope with them, which is why they’ve plumped for Didero Vallis, fifth in this race last year when he was a close second two out.
Sametegal has run third in this race but that’s where he likes to finish in all his races: bridesmaid form 233024333. Wait for him in the veterans’ final in January.
Lord Du Mesnil divided Smooth Stepper and Yala Enki (see 1.30) on heavy over a mile further than today, and this looks a bit sharp.
Senior Citizen is in fact a junior at steeplechasing, his novice status running out only at the end of last month.
His stablemate Dingo Dollar, third and fifth in successive Ladbrokes Trophys, could be suited by these fences, and I see him going for broke in front after a wind op. BETDAQ 15.5 taken.
I chose 17.0 offer Crievehill for the Fortune Cookies last year, after Nigel Twiston-Davies told me he hoped this would be a National horse one day. He had weakened only at the last in this Grand Sefton when only six, was fourth in the NH Chase at Cheltenham and won back-to-back at Wetherby and Haydock last autumn (raised 17lb).
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Aintree (win 30)
BET 5.5pts win WALK IN THE MILL
1.50 Sandown
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win ALLMANKIND
2.25 Sandown
FORTUNE COOKIES
BET 10pts win GREANETEEN
BET 10pts win ROUGE VIF
3.00 Sandown (win 20)
BET 8pts win (nap) CLOUDY GLEN
3.15 Aintree
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win CRIEVEHILL
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50)
BET 3.5pts win DINGO DOLLAR
3.35 Sandown (win 20)
BET 10pts win MISTER COFFEY
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