GO TO THE VALUE WELL FOR 22.0 DAQMAN BULL’S-EYE BET: The first Saturday of the new year is bleak: no crowds, low on quality, and cold as ice, literally. But that doesn’t stop us hunting for value, and trying to hold on to the 17-11 lead over Pricewise. Profits dipped yesterday but the joint total is still slightly over the 1,000-point mark. Today’s headlines include a big-odds bull’s-eye bet:
🔹 IBLEO THE BOLD IMPROVER
🔹 METIER AHEAD OF THE GAME
🔹 GO BACK TO THE WELL AT 22.0
🔹 CAN’T-CATCH-ME TOTTERDOWN!
IBLEO THE BOLD IMPROVER
⭕ 1.50 Sandown Darebin, who won this in 2019, was only fourth last year. A winner here a month ago, and probably left this race behind there: he’s never been able to put back-to-back wins together.
His stablemate Early Du Lemo, almost ran him down, beaten a neck in last month’s race. He’s 3lb better off but took a heavy fall at Ascot the last day.
Born Survivor has been dropped 10lb, back to the mark which won him a Listed at Ayr 20 months ago over more than half a mile further. But he was beaten a total of 97 lengths in his four races last year.
Hollywoodien, third in this race in 2017, scored at Hereford in March but has always needed a run back after a break.
The progressive Ibleo (3.05 BETDAQ) launched his chase career with back to back wins a year or so ago but, never out of the first two in five starts, has shot up two stone after seconds in much better company at Ascot and Cheltenham.
Even so, Moonlighter is top weight. He capped his progress in novice company with a front-running neck defeat by Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter in November before that one ran second to Politologue in the Tingle Creek. But he’s another who has to bounce back from a fall the last day.
Paddys Poem won as a fresh horse after his last long break but in class 4. This is two grades higher.
METIER AHEAD OF THE GAME
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle) Recent winners of this have gone to post off 140 even 142, so Metier seems to be ahead of the game here.
A 150,000-guinea buy from Ireland, Metier stepped up from a West Country class-4 novice to take a Coral Introductory Hurdle unchallenged at Ascot.
However, his 142 rating has him with just the odd pound advantage over the mare, Galice Macalo, when her allowance is added to her 134. She was clear second in a Listed over CD last month.
Michael Scudamore reckons Do Your Job the best he’s ever trained. The placed horses in his Ayr strike in October have both won easily since.
GO BACK TO THE WELL AT 22.0
⭕ 3.00 Sandown (Veterans Handicap Chase Final) Despite setbacks with Altior and Epatante, Nicky Henderson’s current strike rate is 6-9, and Valtor halved in price last night.
He’s won twice after breaks, and is down below his last chase-winning weight, albeit that was more than two years ago. BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 8.9.
Crosspark has been second here the last twice – in one of the Veterans’ legs and in the London National – but that ‘s pushed him up 13lb above his winning mark in the Eider Chase of 2019.
Potters Legend won the Warwick leg in November, after a slow slide of 5lb down the handicap to the mark of his previous success at Haydock in the Spring of 2018. Do we have to wait another 32 months?
Last year’s winner Jepeck (from Regal Flow and Theatre Guide) has been collecting parking tickets lately (PP in his two runs back).
Fingeronthewitch won at Kempton last January and was second in a big Listed chase at Doncaster; an overall 17lb rise switched him off again but refitted tongue-tie might help.
After taking the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter, Minellacelebration had a holiday before following up in the Aintree leg of the Veterans series. The handicapper celebrated with a 152 rating hike from 136 a year ago.
Burtons Well won the Doncaster leg back in February in first-time cheekpieces, and first-time blinkers today could do the same trick and see him confirm form with Minellacelebration (12lb worse off) and Potters Legend. Huge at BETDAQ 22.0 offers.
The Aintree-leg third, Sametegal, was also third in the Sandown leg in November but the handicapper leaves him struggling on the same mark.
You might have put Gold Present in your horses to follow after his defeat of Frodon at Ascot three years ago, but he’s given the winnings back nine times since.
CAN’T-CATCH-ME TOTTERDOWN!
⭕ 3.35 Sandown Back and lay Totterdown (BETDAQ 13.5 this morning). Tried to make all in this last year; headed only approaching the last, and now a stone lower, claimed off and with first-time cheekpieces.
Jane Williams’ yard is in fine form and Monsieur Lecoq won it in 2019, though was way down the handicap that day. He’s 23lb higher after 1-10 since.
Guard Your Dreams remains hooded, after a bad blunder by the favourite, as well as the headgear, helped get him back on track the last day.
Friend Or Foe so enjoyed his first run on the soft that he trotted up 11 lengths on his home course at Wincanton but that cost him a 13lb rise.
Highway One O Two landed three out of four at around this time last year but has failed to complete twice, switched to chasing.
Returns to hurdles with an 11lb rise for winning a Grade-2 novice at Kempton in February, which may be why he went chasing in the first place!
The recent form of The Pink’n would make a bridesmaid blush: 222. But just look at the winners the grey had to try to cope with: Thyme White, Botox Has, Floressa, now rated 141, 144, 144. I took 8.6.
Gemirande beat nothing well at Wetherby and this first handicap will tell us where the ex-French gelding really figures.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Sandown (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) IBLEO
2.05 Ayr (win 10 at 7.6)
BET 1.5pts win CHARMANT
2.25 Sandown (win 10)
BET 7.5pts win METIER
3.00 Sandown (win 50, place 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 6.3pts win VALTOR
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.35pts win and place BURTONS WELL
3.35 Sandown (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.6pts win TOTTERDOWN
BET 1.25pts win THE PINK’UN
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