DAQMAN PUTTING THE PRESSURE ON: Daqman scored twice yesterday with bets on a winner and three placed so that he’s 4-3 up on Pricewise of the Racing Post in their value challenge:
WON 5-2 L’HOMME PRESSE
WON (3rd 10-1) HAYEDO e.w from 14.5 on BETDAQ
HIDDEN HORSE IN THE BECHER CHASE: Today the Becher Chase at Aintree takes top billing, as the Tingle Creek at Sandown cuts up badly to only a handful of players. Daqman stakes in six races, including his first bonus-value bet at 29.0 on a ‘hidden horse.’ Headlines:
29.0 AINTREE BET WINS 98
THIRD TIME LUCKY LUCKI
FORTUNE COOKIE LAUNCH
NUB OF TWO-MILE FORM
BRIDGE DOUBLE BOOSTED
JUST THE JOB FOR METIER
29.0 AINTREE BET WINS 98
⭕ 2.40 Aintree (Becher Chase) Only one winner in the decade has carried more than 10st 12lb but the weights this year are compressed by the appearance off 11st 12lb of Chris’s Dream.
So it is that ‘Chris’ has created a big field by his presence and pushed eight of the runners out of the handicap. But does he have the class to give weight to them all?
Chris’s Dream swerved the Ladbrokes Trophy to take this route to Aintree next April via the National fences. Trainer Henry De Bromhead feels that he enjoyed them this year but this 3m 2f version may be more suitable than the four-and-a-half miles of the 2021 National.
The nine-year-old was disputing fourth (as a 40-1 outsider) and going well when blundering and unseating rider four out, leaving stablemates Minella Times and Balko Des Flos to finish first and second.
His Troytown win at Navan (3m) in November, 2019, is his longest winning trip.
Vieux Lion Rouge Blaklion (sixth) and Walk In The Mill (fourth), winners of this in 2017-18-19, all found the National just too far. Vieux Lion Rouge (2016 and 2020 Becher scorer and back for more today) has tried the National five times; nearest 6th and 7th.
Kimberlite Candy was Becher runner-up in 2019 and again last year to Vieux Lion Rouge, leading four out but losing a shoe. The rain is in his favour.
Le Breuil was third that day, having been 7th in 2019. He has slid down the handicap since winning the NH Chase (when it was 4m) in March of that year but hasn’t been effective elsewhere.
Snow Leopardess was a modest fourth in the NH Chase (reduced to 3m 6f) in March this year, after being outpaced early. The Martaline grey mare has done well at Haydock and Wetherby and had some ‘National-type fences’ built for her at home.
Mac Tottie won last month’s Grand Sefton over the big fences but is not guaranteed to make the move up from 2m 5f to 3m 2f.
Mighty Thunder has won the Edinburgh National and the Scottish National at Ayr and prepped well enough for this season’s targets at Wetherby in October.
Achille sixth, staying on, when Mighty Thunder was runner-up, in the Midlands Grand National, was pipped half a length by Lord Du Mesnil in the Haydock Park Grand National trial in February, and is weighted to get revenge today.
He is ultra-consistent and deserves this chance at the big fences, with his trainer, Venetia Williams, in great form.
Ravenhill won the 2020 NH Chase at Cheltenham (3m 6f) by a clear margin from Lord Du Mesnil, and Gordon Elliott has stayers in strength.
Ravenhill is now a ‘hidden horse’ after running in four consecutive Graded races. I think he should be 15.0 and shall back him accordingly, 3.5 to win 50, even though I could get 29.0.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 11.0 Achille, Kimberlite Candy, 29.0 Ravenhill (bonus value 15.0)
THIRD TIME LUCKY LUCKI
⚠️ HEADS UP: Spot the missing horse! Chacun Pour Soi, Greaneteen and Nube Negra run in the Tingle Creek today; Allaho, Energumene and Envoi Allen are in action at Cork and Punchestown tomorrow in the Hilly Way and John Durkan. Only the champion Shishkin (‘he’s not quite ready’) is missing from the trials weekend of top two-milers.
⭕ 1.50 Sandown (Henry VII Novices’ Chase) Al Ferof, Altior, Allmankind are three of the best winners of this in the decade. Il Ridoto’s price was pounded last night, as if he’s among such elite.
That’s despite another of Paul Nicholls’ precocious four-year-olds (Halo des Obeaux) tumbling off his perch here yesterday.
Il Ridoto made a mistake two out at Newbury but, getting weight all round, won readily from 133 and 130 placed.
His hike to 143 as a result still has him behind Third Time Lucki (152) and Edwardstone (149). Getting the 4yo allowance puts him in line but not in pole position.
I hope Third Time Lucki (BETDAQ 3.0) takes to a right-hand roundabout track after a double going left–handed on the hill rides at Cheltenham.
He’ll find War Lord not giving up but Donald McCain sends Minella Drama down to tackle him again: they were a short-head apart at Carlisle.
Stolen Silver is not out of it, but they didn’t want to know when 10-1 and 11-1 was offered last night and he was 13.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook this morning.
FORTUNE COOKIE LAUNCH
⭕ 2.05 Aintree (Many Clouds Chase) A Grand National winner, Tiger Roll, and a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Native River (winner of this race in 2019) – both now aged 11 – could both fall to the improver Protektorat.
I talked up Protektorat in my Fortune Cookies previews, and we find out today whether he will stay 3m, after he finished late in the 2m 4f Autumm Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November.
Simply The Betts, who holds Imperial Aura on last year’s form, is another who has never won beyond 2m 4f, weakened out of it at the finish to be sixth in that Autumn Gold Cup..
Native River, winner of a £1m in prizemoney, has won four times after a break and will be hard to peg back,, assuming he can still paddle his canoe
Fortune Cookie 4.3 Protektorat
NUB OF TWO-MILE FORM
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase) See Daqman preview on Tuesday.
1: Nube Negra Came to fame when beating Altior at Kempton (2020) before being placed in two Champion Chases, at Cheltenham and Punchestown. Seemed, at seven, to be better than his Punchestown Champion Chase third to Chacun Pour Soi when, on his reappearance, defeated Politologue six lengths at Cheltenham in November.
2: Chacun Pour Soi Never out of the frame in 10 chases between winning the Punchestown Ryanair and the Champion Chase there in two years of seven strikes in all, but beaten in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham after veering off a line and now nine years old, 10 on January 1, coming back after 221 days off the track.
Greaneteen may yet take a hand in the two-mile titles. Runner-up to Politologue in this last year and beat Altior over the same Sandown CD in April. Only fourth in the Champion Chase and ran too keenly the last day on his appearance at Exeter.
Hitman was beaten just a length in the Haldon Gold Cup, with stablemate Greaneteen only fourth. Captain Guinness came back to form in a Grade 3 at Naas a month back.
BETDAQ value 4.3 Nube Negra
BRIDGE DOUBLE BOOSTED
⭕ 3.15 Aintree Olly Murphy won this in 2019 and Tamar Bridge (BETDAQ 3.4) has beaten next-time winners in both his victories.
Midnight River has failed to complete the last twice and his Grade-2 conqueror in January has failed to complete the last three starts!
Pounding Poet’s yard won this last year; back-to-back winner in the Spring, he’s had a run back.
If David Pipe would only hit form (he’s 1-21) I could fancy some of his, including Martinhal. Anything over the age of six is an unlikely winner according to the stats.
JUST THE JOB FOR METIER
⭕ 3.35 Sandown Benson is 8lb higher than when winning this race on heavy ground last year, when the first two finished clear.
Gary Moore has been missing strike badly in the early days of December (33030323) but Hudson De Grugy hasn’t been missing out at Sandown!
After second on his debut on this day in 2020, his form on the Esher course has been 2111.
Elham Valley beat him on this card a year ago and went on to be third in the Fred Winter. While Hudson has eased in the market, Elham has come in from double-figure opening offers.
Grade-1 Tolworth Hurdle winner over the Sandown CD, Metier didn’t take to Cheltenham in the Supreme but is back on his stamping ground, dropped down to Listed level with the rain a bonus.
BETDAQ value 5.3 Metier
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Sandown (win 10)
BET 5pts win THIRD TIME LUCKI
2.05 Aintree (Fortune Cookie)
BET 10pts win PROTEKTORAT
2.25 Sandown (win 20, nap)
BET 6pts win NUBE NEGRA
2.40 Aintree (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win ACHILLE
BET 5pts win KIMBERLITE CANDY
BET 3.5pts win RAVENHILL (bonus win 98)
3.15 Aintree (win 10)
BET 4pts win TAMAR BRIDGE
3.35 Sandown (win 20)
BET 5pts win METIER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
