SUPER THREE NAPS IN FOUR DAYS: After a treble up on Tuesday, back to back naps on Wednesday and a 14-1 strike on Thursday, Daqman’s first Hot Spot to run this season won as a designated supernap yesterday; no drama at all. Two more Hot Spots today.
Friday: Supernap; first Hot Spot
WON 4-9 NO DRAMA THIS END
Thursday: BETDAQ 17.5 taken
WON 14-1 PILSDON PEN
Wednesday: 17.50 points profit
WON 11-10 WYLD BILL (nap)
WON 5-4 MORROPHORE
Tuesday: 30 points profit
WON 100-30 PARNELL STREET
WON 5-6 LIKEALOT (nap)
WON Evens UP THE AGENDA
BEST OF NATIONAL TRIALS..
⭕ 1.36 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National Trial) In its last four runnings – there was no race last year – this has been the best trial of any I know!
Secret Reprieve (2020), Iwilldoit (2021) and Nassalam (2023) all won today’s race and then all won the subsequent Welsh Grand National itself.
The trial in 2020 produced two winners for the price of one: The Two Amigos, runner-up to Secret Reprieve, won the 2022 National.
Three of the last four results could also be a strong indication of where to look for the winner.
They were victories for Sam Thomas, Evan Williams and Venetia Williams, two of them training within 30 miles of the Chepstow track, and Evan 44 miles away. All play again today:
Jubilee Express (Sam Thomas) was runner-up in last year’s Welsh National and clearly targets the race again but today is his very minimum trip. Betdaq Betting Exchange 8.4
Minella Blueway (Evan Williams) won back to back in the Spring. Struggled on his reappearance but cheekpieces back on now. BETDAQ 6.4.
Supervisor (Venetia Williams) and Collectors Item have never won off their high marks. Makin’yourmindup will need the race after 615 days off, and another run before the Welsh National on December 27 is planned.
Only one outright favourite has won in the decade (1-10) and Aworkinprogress has done all his winning on heavy ground.
.. AND THE WORST OF THEM!
⭕ 2.40 Aintree (Becher Chase) Blacklion, Snow Leopardess, Vieux Lion Rouge. Did you back them for the Grand National after they won over this 3m 2f of the course? Thousands of long-faced punters did.
They got further proof that the Becher is a good test for jumping the Grand National fences but the big race next Spring is another mile and a quarter!
Blacklion finished fourth with Vieux Lion Rouge sixth in the National itself (2017). Snow Leopardess, first mare to win the Becher, pulled up in the 2022 National.
Front-runner who loves the mud, Mr Vango won the London National, Peter Marsh and Midlands National but that hiked him 20lb in a year. He’s giving weight all round after 266 days off.
Galia Des Liteaux is 12lb lower than when eighth in the 2024 Grand National, and Newbury gold winner, Tristan Durrell, takes off another 3lb. BETDAQ 8.4.
Gaboriot, a winner at Cheltenham over 4m, was second in the Grand Sefton over these fences last month (third last year) with Excello third. BETDAQ 8.7.
Val Dancer is a Welsh National winner still well handicapped but can he jump these big fences?
KIKIJO CAN OUTSTAY MOB
⭕ 1.20 Sandown Kikijo won his way on to the Hot Spots list when he showed speed and stamina to control a 3m handicap at the Cheltenham mid-November meeting.
Philip Hobbs had targeted a return to fences (he won a novice chase at Newbury in February) but today’s Pertemps qualifier opens up possibilities in a hurdles test the trainer won back to back in 2021-22.
Supremely West was 24 lengths behind in Kikijo’s Cheltenham race from the ‘wrong’ side of the track.
Another recent Cheltenham winner, Lavender Hill Mob, is raised 8lb but still has improvement in him on his Flat rating.
SUD’S BURSTING BUBBLES
⭕ 3.00 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase) A second Hot Spots runner today, Dan Skelton’s L’ Eau Du Sud, is also from the high end of the ratings but was a tasty 4.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
L’Eau Du Sud went 15 lengths clear in the Cheltenham Chase last month, and today the runner-up, Jonbon, may even lose his 24-race record of always finishing in the first two.
Willie Mullins is seeking to dismiss L’Eau Du Sud as a money-maker for Dan Skelton in the trainers-championship race.
His weapon is Il Etait Temps and he’ll be looking for the kind of late charge he produced in Celebration Chase here at Sandown in the Spring when he went five lengths ahead of Jonbon up the hill.
He came from behind in the 2m 5f Grade-2 at Clonmel last month in similar style and today is clearly all about who plays their cards at the right time and with the right amount of engine left.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.20 Sandown (win 20)
BET 8.5pts win KIKIJO (Hot Spot)
BET 3pts win LAVENDER HILL MOB
1.36 Chepstow (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 6.75pts win JUBILEE EXPRESS
BET 5.5pts to win 30 MINELLA BLUEWAY
2.40 Aintree (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.75pts win GALIA DES LITEAUX
BET 6.5pts win GABORIOT
★ 3.00 Sandown (win 30, nap; Hot Spot)
BET 8.5pts win L’EAU DU SUD
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