THREE NAPS UP IN FOUR DAYS: Daqman landed another nap yesterday following back-to-back best bets earlier in the week to make it three out of four:
WON 6-4 Mixboy (Tuesday nap)
WON 9-4 Keeper Hill (Wednesday nap)
WON 9-4 Happy Diva (Friday nap)
DAQMAN IS 34 POINTS CLEAR: Daqman surged past Pricewise of the Racing Post with 20-1 Shantou Flyer on Sunday. As they go head to head at Sandown and Wincanton today, Daqman leads 9-4 in the value hunt, 34 points clear this Jumps season.
MORNING REGGIE IS A CD WINNER
12.10 Sandown We can’t do much with short-odds Coeur De Lion, except perhaps get a bit of leverage from him in our Daq Multiples.
Alan King’s four-year-old was beaten in his Cheltenham trial but the J P McManus–owned winner then hacked up 13 lengths in a Grade 1.
12.45 Sandown Those lugging penalties have shown their quality by taking this for five out of the last six seasons and, because she beat the subsequent winner of this race at Kempton 13 months ago, Morello Royale must carry the maximum today.
But, despite those stats, and the high esteem in which punters hold the Colin Tizzard stable, she was very easy to back at 19.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
Favourite was Lifeboat Mona, who was due to go chasing but proved that she didn’t need heavy ground over hurdles when hacking up on her return at Ascot in November. Not seen since which is a worry for a mare who has had her training problems.
Desert Queen is back to hurdles for a confidence boost as a Wincanton faller on the last day. Briery Queen came back well, winning at Cheltenham in December, which completed a hurdles hat-trick. While Midnight Jazz probably needs better ground, Tara Flow would want any amount of rain. Briery Queen (4.4 offers) looks progressive.
1.15 Sandown At the head of the morning market, Mercian Prince has to surmount a hike of 11lb and has done his winning left-handed. Mystifiable is also 11lb higher than his last winning mark.
Since Mystifiable is 9 and Mercian Prince 6, you would expect the Prince to find more, particularly after just two chases since being bought from France.
Another ex-French, Atirelarigo is the obvious alternative but, though he won at Chepstow on the last day, has made mistakes in all three chases in England. Gores Island is getting a bit long in the tooth and Ballycoe seems to prefer a sound surface.
The grey Morning Reggie (hi, Ronnie!) looks interesting as a Sandown CD winner at around todays mark: 50% place strike-rate so 9.4 win and place on BETDAQ might be a good idea.
ANOTHER ‘OSCAR’ FOR TIZZARD
1.50 Sandown Paul Nicholls’ recent record in this is 12131 and Ulck Du Lin went down a nose over this Sandown CD 11 months ago before being beaten out of sight, back over the same CD for the Celebration Chase in April but facing the one-two of Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux.
This is as easy as the win, off the same mark and in similar conditions, yet he is not wanted at 13.0 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write, and I prefer Paul’s chances with Orbasa (2.05 Wincanton) a few minutes later.
This one at Sandown is a bit of a pensioners’ Tingle Creek with four older horses, three of them 11, another 10. One of them, De Faoithsdream, is likely to set a strong pace, which could suit Hollywoodien and Bright New Dawn (first run for Venetia Williams), both winners over further.
Despite the steadier of 11st 12lb, Garde La Victoire headed the morning market, with his 50% career wins and is dropped in grade with the champion jockey in the saddle.
Hollywoodien is a bit in and out but was impressive at Wetherby and I’ll take him as the improver who could take advantage of any Garde La Victoire jumping errors.
2.25 Sandown (Tolworth Hurdle) The switch to front-running tactics worked well for Capitaine at Ascot, where a Grade-2 victory took his rating to 145, some 12lb in front of Finian’s Oscar on collateral form, 20lb ahead of Chalonnial, and 30lb better than Charlemar.
But these novice hurdlers can suddenly improve for racing, and last year’s winner Yorkhill shot up to a 156 for winning the Tolworth and now has multiple entries for the Cheltenham Festival.
Finian’s Oscar might benefit from the Capitaine keenness: he beat the highly regard Acting Lass seven lengths at Hereford, eased down, and is related to Champion Chase winner, Finians Rainbow, who had a 143 rating as a novice hurdler.
Chalonnial and Charlemar are both related to cross-councry winners and will more likely come into their own over fences but they are doing well enough, thankyou, on the hurdles stage,.
Celestial Path has run in a Guineas (fifth) and a Cambridgeshire (sixth) but this is a tall order on his NH debut. It’s first time, too, over hurdles for Global Stage, a big, strong sort, who has both decent chasing relatives (Out Sam) and a fairly good hurdler, Jubail, in the family.
CLOUDY VALUE ON RARE VISIT
3.00 Sandown (Veterans’ Chase Series Final): With nearly £62,000 to the winner, this is only 10 grand shy of the purse for the Grade-1 Celebration Chase on this course in April.
The handicapper has their entire careers in front of him, so we need to find edges from the soft ground, and from track and trainer form. Astracad, Court By Surprise, Baileys Concerto, Dynaste, Gas Line Boy Saint Are and Shuil R oyale have better form on better ground.
The return to 3m should suit both Aerial, who won the Southern National at Fontwell in November, and Cloudy Too, whose yard is on a hat-trick here, unless already with a winner at Newcastle, and rarely ventures to the southern tracks, except for major races.
Enthusiastic jumper and front-runner, Loose Chips loves Sandown. He will be hard to peg back but could have his old rival up there with him: Rocky Creek, who returned to form on the course when winning the London National a month or so back but drops in trip today.
Aachen was runner-up in this last year but is 13 now. The winner that day was a stablemate of Dynaste, who hasn’t scored since the Cheltenham Festival of 2014 and has slid 24lb down the handicap as a result.
But he was well behind Gas Line Boy and Cloudy Too at Kelso (Aerial fourth) and the former Peter Marsh and Rowland Meyrick winner Cloudy Too’s 13.0 on BETDAQ is value from that result. Rocky Creek (10.0) has been trained for the race.
3.35 Sandown The winning form of Kapstadt and John Reel is all left-handed. Discours de Roi ‘could be anything’ but has raced only on provincial tracks in Europe. Chocola is equally interesting on his handicap debut.
Some of these take a keen old (Robinshill will find it hard to last out, giving weight all round), and I fancy Krugermac to make his light weight tell: 5.7 offers.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers, unless otherwise stated)
BACK 3.5pts win and place MORNING REGGIE (1.15 Sandown)
BACK 8.5pts win HOLLYWOODIEN (1.50 Sandown)
BACK 5.5pts win ORBASA (2.05 Wincanton)
BACK (to win 20): 12pts win (nap) FINIAN’S OSCAR (2.25 Sandown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5pts win ROCKY CREEK and 4pts win CLOUDY TOO (3.00 Sandown)
BACK 6pts win KRUGERMAC (3.35 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Coeur De Lion (12.10 Sandown), Briery Queen (12.45 Sandown), Orbasa (2.05 Wincnanton), Finian’s Oscar (2.25 Sandown)
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