THREE WINNERS OUT OF THREE: Daqman came up smelling of roses, unbeaten yesterday, in time for more bouquets at his favourite meeting, Cheltenham, next week with three winning bets including his nap, Rathlin Rose. They were:
WON 7-4 Rathlin Rose (nap)
WON 5-4 Another Mattie
WON 4-7 Blushing Red
8.4 IMPERIAL BULL’S-EYE BET: Daqman’s had two winners out of three from his horses-to-follow so far, and he goes for a bull’s-eye bet aqt 8.4 on the fourth runner in the Imperial Cup today. He is 16-9 ahead of Pricewise, with 26 points between them (+12 to -14).
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME CASH AGAIN
1.50 Sandown (Novices’ Handicap Final) BETDAQ was betting 8.6 the field for a race with winners since 2011 at 8-1 (twice), 10-1, 14-1 (twice) and 20-1, Nicky Henderson scoring twice.
Gaitway (10.0) has been working with Nicky’s Cheltenham team. A glass horse on the track, and you have to trust that he can step up on his maiden hurdles win at Musselburgh, when Paul Nicholls’ Touch Kick tried to make all.
I was more impressed with Lithic at Huntingdon. But this time you have to trust that he can follow up only six days later, under a 5lb penalty.
Probiaphiliac, who ran Lithic legless at Lingfield, now has more weight and soft ground too deal with, not to mention the other front-runners, Full Irish and Tintern Theatre.
I fancy the shape of the race will set up the other Nicholls’ runner, Cash Again (9.6 offers), a stayer who has been keeping on well at the end of slow-run races and should appreciate today’s gallop.
Interesting that Cash Again and Touch Kick have schooled together, and Touch Kick has drifted this morning like a lonely dog on a raft, well over my betting weir for a Ditcheat runner, 24.0 outsider of the race.
SUPERSTA PRIMED FOR THE TRIAL
2.05 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial) This result is usually ‘known’ – we’ve had only one outsider win in the decade – and three of the last four have started 4-1, two of them favourite.
Better-quality horses of four and five years old have won it in the last five years (off 91, 92 twice, 94 and 97).
But Abareeq has a lot to find with Pactolus and the better-handicapped Steel Train (Chelmsford, November), and they were both well adrift of Holiday Magic and Nimr (ran too freely) at Newcastle last month.
Nimr dropped down a grade to get back into the winner’s enclosure on the last day (7f) but it was a better performance in terms of attitude.
Those drawn 2, 3 and 4 have filled five of the six stalls in the one-two of the last three years, and the stable of last year’s narrow runner-up (hampered), Supersta, is in form and has booked Silvestre De Sousa. A nice 10.0 on BETDAQ with Nimr 5.6.
3.15 Wolverhampton Keystrike won the Lincoln trial last year and this Pivotal five-year-old has been in good form on AW this winter.
My Target is up 16lb for a hat-trick, and we don’t know whether Eltezam is anywhere near his group form of 2015. In fact, Swift Approval and Naadirr are the only winners at this level.
But my threat to Keystroke (3.45 on BETDAQ) would be Yuften (5.6 offers), improved for the switch to Roger Charlton from Ireland, where he won on a man-made surface.
BONNEY BETDAQ VALUE IN IMPERIAL
3.00 Sandown (Imperial Cup) A race I have looked forward to over many years – the start of my season, I called it – has fallen through the floor today.
Last year’s winner on 10st 7lb, racing off a rating of 133, would get a stone more in today’s race, so desperately weak is this field.
In fact, two horses previously third, Gassin Golf (2015) and Spice Fair (2016), have 13lb and 8lb more.
None has won at this level, and only Disputed, Gassin Golf and William H Bonney have scored in a class below this.
William H Bonney turned around Kempton form with Bigmartre at Cheltenham in January, with the bridesmaid Disputed fourth, and Max Do Brazil pulled up.
Disputed is better off at the weights but, as a one-paced bridesmaid, is unlikely to reverse the form, though Max Do Brazil could improve for that first run in England and for first-time tongue-tie today (a breathing problem would explain why he stopped so quickly at Cheltenham).
London Prize hadn’t been asked when he fell in a Listed on the last day but the main threat to William H Bonney may be Fixe Le Nap, who hasn’t been see since running down the field in the Fred Winter at the last Cheltenham festival and is headed there next week in a longer race.
I put William H Bonney in my horses-to-follow list with the intention of winning this prize, despite his letting me down in the Newbury Hurdle, which came too soon after that Cheltenham win in January.
I can’t desert him now in such a depleted Imperial field, so I took 8.4 on BETDAQ in a 105% orange, the value we can expect – and more – at Cheltenham next week.
4.45 Sandown The 4.5 BETDAQ offer Alcala was third on this card last season in the novices’ final (1.50 race) and should be back to form here on the drying ground, and with Twenty Eight Guns hit for a 21lb rise for his back-to-back success.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 30 unless otherwise stated)
BET 3.5pts win and place CASH AGAIN, and 3pts win and place GAITWAY (1.50 Sandown)
BET 6.5pts win NIMR, and 3pts win and place SUPERSTA (2.05 Wolverhampton)
BET (to win 20) 8pts win KEYSTROKE and 4pts win YUFTEN (3.15 Wolverhampton)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 6.75pts win and place WILLIAM H BONNEY (3.00 Sandown)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) ALCALA (4.45 Sandown)
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