SURPRISE! PLEASANT ENDING TO THE DAY: It was a nasty surprise yesterday when Daqman’s even-money banker was the gamble of the day, in to 4-7, but only third. Then a Pleasant Surprise (WON 2-1) got him out of trouble on the same Doncaster card.
NO SURPRISE! PRESSURE ON PRICEWISE: It will be no surprise if Daqman today extends his 47-8 winning-bets lead over Pricewise (he’s currently 200 points in front) on a day of big races across England, including the Eclipse at Sandown and the Old Newton Cup and Lancashire Oaks at Haydock.
CLIFFS OUT ON TOP IN THE ECLIPSE
3.35 Sandown (Coral-Eclipse) ABC Guide Thursday, Daqman Ratings Friday. It’s all in the Daqman Archive.
Three-year-olds are on a hat-trick here but had scored only once in the previous eight seasons of the decade. So how good are they this time around?
The BETDAQ market says that they dominate the field, with Epsom Derby runner-up Cliffs Of Moher and the fourth, Element, split by Royal Ascot winner, Barney Roy.
FAITH Sir Michael Stoute is very forgiving of champion Jim Crowley to let him keep the mount. I thought he came too soon on Ulysses and got into an unnecessary fight with Highland Reel at Royal Ascot, and can now turn around the short-head deficit with runner-up Decorated Knight, though five-year-olds have a very good record in this, with five wins in the last 10.
HOPE If you back Eminent you have to hope they’ve tethered his gusto (whatever image that conjures up), or he’s likely to use his energy far too soon. He broke 40mph on the gallops and his lad broke bones.
If you are a Barney Roy fan, you hope he will stay beyond the mile of his Royal Ascot win but you are probably wondering why he is stepped up to this trip before the Sussex Stakes. Laid back though he is, it’s guesswork that he’s versatile.
CHARITY Ryan Moore has to give nothing away. He’s sitting pretty. He knows he’s on a horse that gets the trip and has the stamina to win a Derby, or almost (again, hindsight shows he came a fraction too soon and was mugged on the line at Epsom).
And trainer O’Brien is merciless in giving the field a thorough test, with Taj Mahal to keep them honest and dictate his terms.
VERDICT: Two furlongs to go. How has Eminent behaved? Can Crowley on Ulysses time it right? Has Barney Roy got anything left? Cliffs Of Moher has the answers
ORDER IN: 1 Cliffs Of Moher, 2 Ulysses, 3 Barney Roy.
BETDAQ BETS: Everyone’s saying it’s impossible to choose between the generations. In a punter-friendly 105% BETDAQ orange, why not back one of each with Ulysses ‘big’ at 9.0 and Cliffs Of Moher (around 2-1) the safe pair of hands at this trip among the Classic colts.
I hope to land two bets, a win and a place, maybe even three if I have a small reverse forecast with Ladbrokes.
MARVELLOUS 7.6 BETDAQ OFFERS..
1.50 Sandown (Coral Charge) Horses aged three (6) and four (3) are nine out of 10 in the decade which, if you bet those stats blind, means you can eliminate more than half of this field.
But, in the eight races run on firmish ground in the decade, the low four gates – stalls 1 (once), 2 (twice), 3 (twice) and four (twice) – have won them all, seemingly letting in old-timers Line Of Reason (in 3) and Mirza (in the one stall).
Line Of Reason had three races in June (two wins) and tries to leap two grades here, so I pass on him. Mirza is 10 and was behind Line Of Reason at Musselburgh.
Muthmir loves the ground and kept on well behind the ‘machine’, Lady Aurelia at Royal Ascot but, on that form, giving, 5lb today, he and Alpha Delphini are very close together, though Alpha might struggle to cope with stall 11.
The stats say that Battaash (works extremely well at home) and Tis Marvellous (drop back from 6f will help) have every chance of winning another battle of the generations. Tis Marvellous (7.6 BETDAQ offers) has more experience and I am a big Gerald Mosse fan.
I’ll bet the place Tis Marvellous as my win-stakes saver but wouldn’t blame you for having Battaash on your side in an even better BETDAQ ‘book’, 104%.
FOX TO OUTRUN THEM IN MARATHON
2.05 Haydock A lot of non-stayers here on breeding but Cribbs Causeway goes back on the dam’s side to a St Leger second, and Zenon also has quality stayers in his background.
Jukebox Jive (I see him winning hurdles) and Mister Manduro (has the form but also has the weight!) will get the trip.
The one they want, because of his Great Voltigeur entry, is Humble Hero, hence the 3-1 or so this morning. At the weights and the prices, the 8.4 Cribb’s Causeway looks worthwhile win and place.
2.40 Haydock (Lancashire Oaks) John Gosden’s form figure in this in the last six seasons are 114102, and you have to bear in mind that he is dominating with his fillies this year (Enable, Coronet etc).
Unfortunately Gosden runs two. So does Sir Michael Stoute. Tricky one. But Abingdon is 8lb in front of Dubka on official ratings and Dubka has beaten Ajman Princess and Lucy The Painter.
So I’ll do what I did in the Eclipse. I’ll take one three-year-old, 6.0 offer Hertford Dancer (only a length or so behind Coronet at Royal Ascot ) and one older horse, Abingdon, the 2.76 BETDAQ favourite as I write.
3.15 Haydock (Old Newton Cup) Four-year-olds usually win this (7 in 9 years) and high numbers have captured six from eight. But Shraaoh (around 6.0) could be a lot better than these.
4.10 Sandown (Coral Marathon) Despite a 2m trip, it is essential to be drawn in the low four stalls. I think Oriental Fox will try to run them into submission.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated)
1.50 Sandown
BET 5pts win and place TIS MARVELLOUS
2.05 Haydock
BET 4pts win and place CRIBB’S CAUSEWAY
2.40 Haydock
BET 6pts win HERTFORD DANCER
BET (to win 20) 11pts win ABINGDON
3.35 Sandown
BET 3.75pts win and place ULYSSES
BET (to win 20) 10pts win CLIFFS OF MOHER
3.15 Haydock
BET 6pts win SHRAAOH
4.10 Sandown
BET (to win 20) 8pts win (nap) ORIENTAL FOX
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