DAQMAN SERVES UP SEVEN WINNERS IN TWO DAYS: Daqman finished in front again yesterday with Glen Moss (WON 5-2), Mandour (WON 9-4) and Altharoos (WON 7-4) following four winns on Thursday. His two-day profit is 40 points.
NOW FOR A HOT DISH CALLED THE ECLIPSE: There’s a feast of racing today at Sandown and Haydock, notably what Daqman calls a ‘classic Eclipse’, in which he sides with the Ballydoyle empire against the favourites.
Alakazam! Will the magic of Al Kazeem work again? Or has trainer Roger Charlton got it wrong, and should have skipped today’s Eclipse and waited for the King George after the horse’s hard race at Royal Ascot.
Al Kazeem, who cracked his pelvis last year, is one of the most sensational equine crocks returned to form since Aldaniti won the Grand National.
After a year off, he’s ripped through the Group rankings with a hat-trick that’s hiked his rating a stone and in which he’s seen off last year’s Derby winner, Camelot.
Camelot declines a rematch but Mukhadram, whom Al Kazeem only narrowly defeated in that Ascot ding-dong, is back with jockey Paul Hanagan vowing another catch-me-if-you-can attacking race.
And Camelot’s stable makes a twin assault: apart from their Declaration Of War, Ballydoyle hopes to find that 1m 2f is the right orbit for Mars.
That’s some heat in the sun at Sandown this afternoon.. and I’ve yet to mention the filly who’s the big tip of the race. Will Al Kazeem be feeling the effects of Ascot? If so, which colt – or filly! – will see him sawn in half on the Esher stage today?
1.30 Sandown (Malcolm Palmer Memorial) A great start by BETDAQ with a list of offers in the orange totaling only 104%, as I write. The bookies (no offence, Malcolm, on your star day of the year) took you for a 13% take out at SP last year.
Either you believe, as I do, that the favourite, Plover, can step up from a class-5 maiden at Kempton, or you back something each way (eight runners with three chances of a return).
Kyllachy Rise tried the exact same (tautology rules, ok) leap from oblivion but came unstuck, overfaced in the Britannia at Royal Ascot. His problemo today is the firm ground.
Pythagorean loved it firm at Leicester but didn’t get going in a slow-run race over today’s CD on the last day. But second and third in Plover’s maiden have both won, even though she was six lengths clear, and I can see her going on to better things.
2.05 Sandown Charge Not so much a cavalry charge, with only eight declared, more what the bookies will charge, with 116 and 117% SP Totals in the last two runnings (generous by their standards!), whereas BETDAQ offers on this race totted up to a punter-friendly 103% at the time of writing this morning.
We should be Tickled Pink to have a bet on those terms and, after Lady Cecil’s tremendous run, why not: she’s had 12 out of 20 starters in the frame since she took over.
Tickled Pink is back on terrain she loves and has the right stall to power straight to the front. The grey filly’s biggest headache would normally be the second-season contingent: three-year-olds have won the race four times in the last six years, but don’t look up to it today.
Bungle In The Jungle, also a fast starter, finished in front of Hoyam at Royal Ascot but he has the outside draw, while Hoyam and Dutch Masterpiece may both need some cut.
Of the older horses, Duke Of Firenze tries to step up from handicap company but the ground could be too lively for a son of Pivotal. Spirit Quartz also needs an easy surface, but it is ideal today for Kingsgate Native.
Mince acts on any going but the question-mark is whether this 6f winner will see her get going in time, hence the blinkers to sharpen the filly up.
Kingsgate Native is a good offer at 7.0 but seven winners in the last decade have come from stalls 1, 2, 3 so Tickled Pink will make him run.
2.40 Sandown Challenge Three-year-olds seem overpowered by the 6-1 drubbing handed out by four-year-olds in the last seven years but, heh, they have had very few runners: just seven of the 48 starters since 2010.
And only one or two have been of the calibre of Wentworth and Windhoek, both lightly raced, which goes some way to explaining why neither has even been placed on a right-handed track like today’s.
Lovers of a right-hand bend are Directorship, Rockalong and Roserrow. Directorship has nothing to fear from the two others (and, therefore, also Danchai), on a line through Tiger’s Tail, though he has to bounce back from his Royal Ascot flop (badly drawn in the Royal Hunt Cup).
The gallant grey Prince Of Johanne loves it fast, has won four out of seven right-handed, but hasn’t won since he was Hunt Cup hero of 2012.
Wentworth and Windhoek ran well on the fast ground at the royal meeting this year, fourth in the Britannia and sixth in a Group 3, respectively. Both runs would normally be good enough to win today’s race.
The concession of 6lb by Windhoek sways me in favour of Wentworth, with Directorship (13.5 on BETDAQ over my cornflakes) best of the older horses.
A lot is being said about the draw here but I find that as many come through from being dropped out as win from the rail advantage. Hughsie is nervous about it for Wentworth: don’t panic, Richard: read the stats, and ease to the outside; don’t try coming through the wall, as you did at Ascot.
In fact, I see that Ryan Moore is equally nervous, drawn one in the ‘coffin box’, on Windhoek. He says he has a ‘job’ on to organise him early, or he could get ‘chopped off’ and boxed in around a hectic pace.
2.55 Haydock (Lancashire Oaks) Whether or not John Gosden gets it right with The Figure in the Eclipse, he’s certainly had his fillies spot on for this weekend at Haydock before now.
Gosden is on a hat-trick in this Lancashire Oaks and has won it four times since 2003. His figures for the race are 1103011, two of the winners three-year-olds.
His Pivotal filly Wannabe Loved has won only a handicap and I’d expect her to need some cut in the ground (ditto Midnight Soprano). No winner of this has taken the handicap route (so that’s ditto Albasharah).
Another Gosden, Gallipot, favourite for her last three starts, came good in the summer last season. And, if you judge firm-ground-lover Banoffee on her Cheshire Oaks win, then this morning’s 9.8 on BETDAQ was clearly wrong. Kieren Fallon owes me a couple of bob, after his shocking run on Velox last night.
3.15 Sandown Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t been out of the first three (three winners) in the last seven runnings of this race and I shall do yesterday’s trick again.
I bet that Stoutie would surely get one of Auld Alliance and Altharoos home, and he did. I’ll do the same today with a pair of his with similar profiles. I think he’s bound to land either Plover or Integral in this one. Or both.
3.30 Haydock (Old Newton Cup) The four-year-olds in this have produced best figures of 112211131. There’s been only one clear favourite in the winners’ enclosure throughout the last decade but the norm is 7-1, 15-2, 8-1, 17-2, 9-1.
Sir Michael Stoute again has a star runner, Opinion, who comes from a Royal Ascot race which has been the key to this prize in the past. Snag is his weight from a rating of 103. Mad Rush in 2008 took it off 102 but eight of the last nine winners have come from within the narrowish parameter of 92-97.
I like Francisan but Opinion’s biggest problem may be Sir Graham Wade, sixth to him at Ascot but 10lb better here.
Mark Johnston’s season has been marked (it’s a short dictionary I’m using today) by poor placing of his horses and Sir Graham Wade’s forays over further have all come to nought. But that’s why I could get 14.5.
3.50 Sandown (Eclipse Stakes, see Archive for Thursday’s ABC) Roger Charlton must feel that Al Kazeem has taken the win over Mukhadram at Royal Ascot in his stride but I always look for something else when two or more horses are close together.
And, indeed, the Gosden filly The Fugue is entitled to be right up there with them now, since her third that day was her first run back. So I’m leaving this in the safe hands of Ballydoyle.
They have a one-mile fast-ground Ascot star in Declaration of War, but twice a winner over today’s distance, and they have a colt who showed his inexperience in both Guineas and Derby, Mars, who has raced as though the potential is there and that today’s in-between trip would be ideal.
If the line to this classic Eclipse is The Fugue, well they know all about her, having run Was three times against her (score 2-1 against Was) last season.
I see that Pricewise has chickened out of a bet, yet the bookies’ list on his spread claims an underround (best-price percentage 96).
If only he’d used BETDAQ, he needn’t have researched all those offers: I could get them all in one 101% ‘book’ this morning.
In fact, the only single, and singular, comparison for the first five Sandown races on BETDAQ this morning – 102, 103, 107, 104 and 101% – is last year’s total bookies’ SPs: 113, 117, 125, 118 and 114.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each)
VALUE BET 15pts win (nap) PLOVER (1.30 Sandown)
VALUE BET 7pts win TICKLED PINK and 5pts win KINGSGATE NATIVE (2.05 Sandown)
VALUE BET 6.6pts win WENTWORTH and 2.4pts win DIRECTORSHIP (2.40 Sandown)
BET 3.4pts win on each BANOFFEE and GALLIPOT (2.55 Haydock)
VALUE BET 6.6pts win INTEGRAL (3.15 Sandown)
VALUE BETS 6pts win OPINION, 3.5pts win FRANCISCAN and 2.2pts win SIR GRAHAM WADE (3.30 Haydock)
GOLD VALUE BETS 6.5pts win DECLARATION OF WAR and 5.5pts win MARS (3.50 Sandown)
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