DAQMAN’S DAILY AFFAIRE WITH BETDAQ VALUE: Here’s another one for the file marked ‘BETDAQ value revealed again and again.’ Daqman spots the value and, when the horse wins, as it so often does, we record yet another one well over the bookmaker SP. Yesterday (for a profit on the day):
WON 11-2 ARCHI’S AFFAIRE (9.8 BETDAQ taken)
HE LEADS PRICEWISE 65-22 AFTER 28.0 GAMBLE: Saturday is very often Daqman’s big day and last week he took his value hunting to new heights with a 189-point gamble on the Ebor Handicap winner, Muntahaa. It hiked his score against Pricewise of the Racing Post to 65-22 (plus 95 to minus 93 to single-point level stakes at SP).
WON 11.0 MUNTAHAA (28.0 BETDAQ taken)
APPLAUSE BUT MUST MAKE IT GLOBAL
1.50 Sandown Though the experts will tell you to be with the low draw, stalls 7 to 14 have won in the last four years. Three-year-olds have a poor record.
A top juvenile career, in which he won the National Stakes over today’s CD, has kept Global Applause (gate eight) high in the ratings.
But interesting now that he has been moved to ace sprint trainer Robert Cowell for only his third run of the season, which started with a narrow defeat a grade higher than today.
Not to be confused with Rapid Applause, who is up in grade here for his hat-trick bid. Royal Applause is Rapid’s daddy but Global’s grandad.
The 9.2 BETDAQ offer Haddaf’s form here in handicaps is 11 and he looks set to bounce back before the end of the season. Soie De l’Eau is likely to use up his early pace for a position from stall 11, and was lucky to finish in front of a hampered Global Applause (11.0 offers) when they last met.
JOHNSTON APPRECIATION SOCIETY
2.05 Chester Beverley and Chester are usually reliable for stalls bias, but that Chester cutaway has cured a lot of it, more’s the pity for a greedy punter who likes everything in his favour.
They go pretty fast to that point and are likely to leave behind Shady McCoy, who was 10 lengths off Baraweez on his only visit to the track.
Baraweez is 2-2 at Chester. Arcanada’s form here is 101 and he’s dropped 11lb since the Spring.
But all three – Arcanada, Baraweez, and Shady McCoy – were well adrift of Poet’s Society (made all at York, 1m) in separate races in August.
Mark Johnston’s other candidate, Lake Volta, is a front-runner but rarely lasts out and is 1-12 this year, albeit running well for third in a big-field handicap at Goodwood on the last day. Lake Volta, Muntadab and Lualiwa could do with some rain. Daira Prince has to bounce back.
So the big threat to Poet’s Society (BETDAQ 10.5) may be Oh This Is Us (9.8 offers), a winner of a Listed over this CD (lake Volta fourth and still with some catching u p t o do at the weights).
GROUP HISTORY IS IN THE MAKING
2.25 Sandown Is there a Group horse in this handicap? There certainly was in two of the last three seasons, when the winners went on to score at Group-2 level.
Last year’s winning stable tries to do the trick again with History Writer, who has to be forgiven his last run but could have more to come now stepped up in trip.
They clearly thought something of him when he won on today’s course over a mile on the first of last month, settling well and showing a change of gear.
The drying ground may be against Almoreb, Billesdon Bess, Master Carpenter, Mountain Angel, Not So Sleepy and Restorer.
Like the Chester race, Mark Johnston runs two, with Communique clearly best but he’s had trouble in the stalls and this is his first run after passing an official test. Has to give 11lb to History Writer.
THE TRACK SHOULD SUIT MYTHMAKER
2.45 Beverley (Bullet) Draw bias or what! Only one winner in the decade has scored from outside the four lowest stalls.
But punters picking from the four rarely get it right (2-10 favourite), and there have been winners at 10-1 (twice) and 16-1.
In the good old bad old days, you just backed the first four blind to a fixed-profit yield, without even looking in the form book.
And, if you knew a flying machine, you lumped on. Tangerine Trees, Borderlescott and Take Cover could satisfy that label, yet they have started, and won, at 10-1, 8-1 and 3-1 since 2011.
I shall take the one stall occupant, Mythmaker (BETDAQ 9.4), whose form suggests that he’s well suited by the stiff Beverley five.
VERACIOUS IS SANDOWN SUPERNAP
3.00 Sandown (Atalanta Stakes) Three-year-olds are 7-3 up in the decade, among them three for Sir Michael Stoute, whose Coronation Stakes and Nassau third, Veracious (1.8 on BETDAQ), should be good enough for this Group 3.
3.15 Chester Stakes Andrew Balding is in fabulous form, culminating in figures of 1011321, and Duretto, a Group-3 winner and third in. the Grand Cup at York behind Marmelo, is a stone or so in front of most of these.
3.35 Sandown (Solario Stakes) The race which threw up Irish Guineas winner Kingman for John Gosden, who now saddles Too Darn Hot, brother to So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar.
Too Darn Hot, a daughter of Dar Re Mi, maintains the musical note as a Cole Porter song often associated with Ella Fitzgerald.
A seven-lengths winner over a mile on today’s course, the colt runs here instead of the stable’s unbeaten Beatboxer, and is second favourite for the Epsom Derby behind Anthony Van Dyck.
LOW STALL CRUNCH FOR CRESCENT
3.55 Beverley (Silver Cup) Stalls bias almost as strong as in the Bullet: the last seven winners have all come from the four lowest drawn.
Richard Fahey, going for a hat-trick in the race, has Delph Crescent (7.0 BETDAQ) in the three stall.
4.00 The Curragh (Irish Cambridgeshire) Eight winners out of 10 were between 10-1 and 25-1 SP, all sorts of ages, weights and stall positions.
Last favourite to win was 19 years ago, last Brit to raid successfully was in 1929. Sounds like one for pinstickers when you’re up against this kind of ‘form’: Master Speaker runs here because he missed the cut at Chelmsford! My pin fell on Zorion (37.0 BETDAQ)
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Sandown (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win HADDAFF
BET 3pts win GLOBAL APPLAUSE
2.05 Chester (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win OH THIS IS US
BET 2pts win POET’S SOCIETY
2.25 Sandown (win 30)
BET 7.25pts win HISTORY WRITER
2.45 Beverley (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win MYTHMAKER
3.00 Sandown (SP)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win VERACIOUS
3.15 Chester (win 10)
BET 12pts win DURETTO
3.35 Sandown (win 10)
BET 11pts win TOO DARN HOT
3.55 Beverley (win 10)
BET 1.6pts win DELPH CRESCENT
4.00 The Curragh (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.35pts win and place ZORION
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