STEP BY STEP TO THE BIG WINNER: Daqman today presents his step-by-step Grand National guide to the facts and factors that will decide the winner of today’s big race.
Stamina
Never fallen
Track ability
Stables in form
CREATE YOUR OWN VALUE MARKET: There are deductions for horses in blinkers and for those with fewer than 10 chase starts or 18 or more, leaving you to add up the points. Relating each score to the others, Daqman then creates his own market and compares it with the value in the Betdaq orange.
WHO’S GOT THE FIRST FOUR TO FINISH? Daqman is leading Pricewise 3-1 at the Aintree meeting, bringing their overall scores to 300-117. Each will have four live bets in the big race this afternoon. Don’t forget it’s put back to 5.15 pm
NATIONAL: THE BOOKIES’ DAYLIGHT ROBBERY
Don’t listen to tips; you can do better yourself! Check out all the horses for stamina and jumping ability, plus knowledge of the Aintree track.
It’s your own spot-the-value game because, at the end of it, you can add up the points you’ve awarded and create your own market. From the percentage totals compared, make up your own odds.
Of one bet, I’m sure: you won’t beat the BETDAQ market. There was value galore in this morning’s 103% overround orange, certainly more than last year’s staggering 165% Total SP, for which there is only one other name: daylight robbery.
In this case, probably twilight robbery, with the race not due off until 5.15. Plenty of time to study the form book. Be a winner this year. Swerve those swindling bookmakers: Betdaq gives you the value and wants you to win!
Check out my ABC Guide from Wednesday (see Archive in Daqman icon). All 40 declared have stood their ground. I’ve reduced all the information and given each horse marks for stamina; jumping ability; and knowledge of the track, and made up a market from the overall result.
You can follow that or study the form and facts yourself, and make sure today that you bet at YOUR value price in YOUR value market that you and the BETDAQ community create every day of the week.
CLOUDS CAN LIFT HIS GAME OFF TOP WEIGHT
5.15 Aintree (Grand National, 4m 2f 74yd)
STAMINA ASSURED (won or placed 3m 4f plus): Staying ability proven in marathon events, with marks for stamina linked to quality of event
10 Many Clouds Won Aintree Grand National and Hennessy Gold Cup but must now carry top weight and would have to be another Red Rum
09 Saint Are Second Grand National; second Murphy Gold Cup; third Becher Chase.
08 Shutthefrontdoor Won Irish Grand National; fifth Aintree National; sixth NH Chase, Cheltenham
07 Goonyella Won Midlands Grand National; second Scottish National
07 Hadrians Approach Won Sandown Gold Cup
07 Just A Par Won Sandown Gold Cup
07 Vics Canvas Won Cork National; second Sandown Gold Cup
06 Home Farm Second Irish Grand National
06 Rule The World Second Irish Grand National; third Kerry National 06 Triolo d’Alene Won Hennessy Gold Cup
05 Holywell Fourth Cheltenham Gold Cup; winner 3m 2f
05 Silviniaco Conte Fourth and seventh Cheltenham Gold Cup; won Aintree Bowl
05 Sir Des Champs Second Cheltenham Gold Cup
05 The Druids Nephew Second Murphy Chase; leading four out in National, fell
04 First Lieutenant Third Hennessy Gold Cup
04 Rocky Creek Led until closing stages 2014 Grand National; finished fifth
04 The Last Samuri Won Grimthorpe Chase (3m 2f)
RULE THE WORLD IS A SAFE CONVEYANCE
NEVER FALLEN: Jumping and strong staying ability as a prominent racer put me in mind of both Rule The World and Kruzhlinin for my ante-post bets.
Now I need two more today to go with them for my 1-2-3-4. Here are marks for horses that hav never fallen or refused. Two unseated riders = one fall. Five points deducted for more than 18 chases, fewer than 10.
10 Just A Par Placed six out of 15
10 Kruzhlinin Placed eight of 16
10 Many Clouds Placed 11 times in 15 chases
10 Rocky Creek 10 places out of 17 chases
10 Rule The World Placed eight times from 13 chases; slipped up once
05 Double Ross 10 out of 21
05 First Lieutenant Placed 18 times in 29 chases
05 Shutthefrontdoor Placed four of eight
05 Soll Placed seven out of 20
05 Unioniste 13 out of 21
SAINT HAS JUMPED THE FENCES FOUR TIMES
TRACK ABILITY: The National, the Topham Trophy and the Bechers Chase all have those giant fences. Here are the runners with previous records in them:
10 Saint Are second and ninth Grand National; third and seventh Becher Chase.
09 Many Clouds Won Grand National
08 Rocky Creek 5th and 17th in the National
07 Soll Got round in Topham and Becher Chase: 9th in the National
07 Shutthefrontdoor Fifth Grand National
05 The Druids Nephew Leading four out in National
05 Kruzhlinin Headway second circuit in the National; mistake 25th
04 First Lieutenant Got round last year
04 Triolo d’Alene won the Topham; pulled up in the National
04 Vics Canvas Fifth Becher Chase
03 Double Ross Fifth in the Topham Trophy
01 On His Own Fell in the National twice
01 Unioniste Fell in the National
BACK-TO-FORM O’NEILL OPENS THE DOOR
TRAINERS IN FORM: Jonjo O’Neill (Shutthefrontdoor and Holywell) pulled off one of the training coups of the century yesterday when he prepared two-miler Eastlake to win the Topham Trophy, 2m 5f over the Grand National fences, with the form figures 4030P32PP0P0.
Also back to form: P Hobbs. Others in top gear: T George, N Henderson, M Morris, D Pipe, N Twiston-Davies, W Mullins.
TOP TRAINERS (RACE): K Bailey, G Elliott, W Mullins, P Nicholls, J O’Neill, D Pipe, O Sherwood, N Twiston-Davies, E Williams, V Williams
TOP JOCKEYS (RACE): L Aspell, B Geraghty, D Jacob, R Johnson, P Moloney, R Power.
DEDUCT: Don’t forget I’ve been deducting for horses in blinkers; those under nine and over 11; or carrying more than 11st 6lb. I shall also have to deduct five points from Rule The World as a chase maiden (not a chaste maiden, a chase maiden).
HUGE VALUE IN THE TOP TEN ON BETDAQ
TEN-BEST MARKET COMPARISONS: These are the top 10 in my estimation with their points total and odds wanted, based on their overall percentage chances.
26 Kruzhlinin 16-1 wanted; 25-1 with bookmakers; 41.0 Betdaq
25 Shutthefrontdoor 16-1 wanted; 16-1 bookies; 19.5 Betdaq
24 Many Clouds 16-1 wanted but 9-1 average bookies; 11.0 Betdaq
24 Saint Are 16-1 wanted; 14-1 bookies, but 20.0 Betdaq
20 Rule The World 25-1 wanted; 33-1 to 50-1; but 52.0 Betdaq
18 Rocky Creek 25-1 wanted; 66-1 bookies; 104.0 Betdaq
17 Just A Par 25-1 but 50-1 mostly bookies; 64.0 Betdaq
15 Holywell 28-1 wanted; 16-1 bookies; 19.0 Betdaq
15 Triolo d’Alene 28-1 wanted; 33-1 average bookies; 62.0 Betdaq
13 First Lieutenant 33-1 wanted; 40-1 avergae; but 48.0 Betdaq
BALLYCROSS COULD BE A 25.0 POT OF GOLD
1.45 Aintree Jonjo O’Neill’s Join The Clan may tell us more about the stable’s current form. Its horses have won this three times and been placed three more from 12 starters.
David Pipe is on the premises with two wins and three places, while Philip Hobbs clearly wants to be, attacking with three contenders.
Lightweights don’t have a big say in this (only one win below 10st 9lb) but the softer the ground the more advantage they have.
And Ballycross rings alarm bells off rock bottom, a lightly-raced Twiston-Davies improver just like Ballyoptic yesterday. He’s a clever man but will be hoping for more rain.
Join The Clan finished well adrift of Arpege d’Alene and if In Doubt in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham but that was fast ground and he’s won all his races on soft.
Long House Hall, the Coral Cup runner-up, and Willie Mullins’s Children’s Drift, have seemed to need a sound surface, though Children’s Drift was the moral at Leopardstown when second on soft, stepped up to today’s trip, giving a cartload of weight to the half-length winner.
Rock The Kasbah was down the field that day when Philip Hobbs’ stable was out of form; he’s doing better now and the ground has come for this dual winner over shorter, though if In Doubt seems to be the stable’s number one.
Mydor has been a bridesmaid since being thumped by the handicapper at the beginning of last year and Tony Martin is still struggling to find a spot in the bigger picture this term, while Squouateir, a lightly-raced improver before he found the going too fast at Cheltenham, could be J P McManus’s best of four starters, all with different trainers.
POT-OF-GOLD VERDICT: What a start to National day with a 102% BETDAQ orange! When the market is punter-friendly like that, you can afford to have a flutter or two. I shall take 29.0 Join The Clan.
But for best value I can’t resist a bit of 25.0 win and place Ballycross and the way Barry Geraghty’s riding, no doubt If In Doubt will be thereabouts. Looked unlucky at Cheltenham.
I think Ballycross is a 14-1 chance who may have got in under the radar here. That would cost me seven points to win 100 and I’ll stick with that stake to add to the value of the 25.0 offer.
2.25 Aintree Back to the unbackable! Willie Mullins’s Yorkhill looks like a hub for your Daq Multiples
3.00 Aintree Another walk-over for Willie? Without Ruby to tip him up, Douvan should consolidate your doubles and trebles.
3.40 Aintree (Liverpool Hurdle) A hat-trick of long-odds-on winners could be supplied by World Hurdle winner Thistlecrack.
4.20 Aintree Grand National punters will be looking for a lift for their big bets. Band Of Blood was behind Holywell and The Last Samuri on his last two starts. Cloudy Too was fifth to Many Clouds at Kelso. Maggio fifth to Sir Des Champs at Thurles.
I would go Cernunnos if it’s soft; Knock House if it’s been drying out. That’s the missing link in all my efforts. We don’t really know the ground. I’ll listen to what the jockeys after the first. I just don’t want my day spoiled by Emma’s ‘it’s patchy’ or Mick The Fitz’s ‘it’s the same for everybody.’
I’ll save a few pounds for a nap bet that Mark Johnston gets yet another two-year-old winner with Accladora (6.50 Wolverhampton). George Cinq (2.35 Lingfield) should get a place.
DAQMAN’S GRAND NATIONAL BETS
ANTE-POST: TON-UP BET (to win 100): 4.5pts win KRUZHLININ
ANTE-POST: TON-UP BET (to win 100): 2pts win RULE THE WORLD
TODAY’S BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 2.7pts win SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
TODAY’S BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 2.5pts win SAINT ARE
PLACE BETS: 3pts on each Kruzhlinin, Rule The World, Saint Are and Shutthefrontdoor
PLACE LAYS: each to lose 10pts SILVINIACO CONTI and THE LAST SAMURI
REST OF THE DAY
POT-OF-GOLD TON-UP BET: 7pts win and place BALLYCROSS for bonus return of 168 points, plus (to win 30 points) 6pts win IF IN DOUBT, and 1pt win and place JOIN THE CLAN (1.45 Aintree)
BET (to win 30) 4.8pts win CERUNNOS and 2.4pts win BAND OF BLOOD (4.20 Aintree)
BET (to win 30) 2.4pts win and place GEORGE CINQ (2.35 Lingfield)
BET (to win 30) 10pts win (nap) ACCLADORA (6.50 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win treble Yorkhill (2.25 Aintree), Douvan (3.00 Aintree), Thistlecrack (3.40 Aintree)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
