HISTORY 1: UNIQUE BETDAQ CHAMPION: Yesterday’s Betdaq Punchestown Champion Hurdle will go down in history as the first hurdles title to go to a six times steeplechase winner. Vroum Vroum Mag has the world of jumps racing at her feet.
HISTORY 2: THE FORCE IS WITH AIDAN: On the Flat today, another Irish hero, trainer Aidan O’Brien, could become the first trainer since 1848 to win more than seven Newmarket 2,000 Guineas with another odds-on shot, Air Force Blue.
HISTORY 3: RECORD-BREAKING TIPS: After Daqman’s winners at 16-1 (twice), 10-1 and 9-1 in the week, Pricewise got one back against Daqman yesterday, and it’s now 21-8 to Daqman, who has also landed 15 lays out of 16. His Classic record in 2015 was:
WON 4-1 Gleneagles (English 2,000)
WON 2-5 Gleneagles (Irish 2,000)
WON 11-2 Pleascach (Irish 1,000)
WON 3-1 New Bay (French Derby)
WON 13-8 Golden Horn (Epsom Derby)
WON 10-11 Jack Hobbs (Irish Derby
A BETDAQ-VALUE START TO BOTH GUINEAS
Vroum! Vroum! What a time to change gear.. Just when we thought we’d seen it all in a trio of great festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, Vroum Vroum Mag stole the headlines in the BETDAQ Champion Hurdle.
It’s a case of ‘follow that!’ To be asked to close the curtains yesterday on an amazing March-April’s jumping and open the Classic season this afternoon is mind-blowing. That the powerful play goes on. And BETDAQ played a phenomenal part.
Meanwhile, we’ve got some overs! Our bets on the Guineas – one on today’s 2,000 one on tomorrow’s 1,000 – have both shortened up, so the purpose of ante-post betting is achieved. We’d like more!
The 3.5pts (to win 50) at 15.0 Marcel may yet allow us a trade later on, and the colt’s 12.0 this morning has just about engineered us a 100-100 nil-overround market, credit due in the large part of course to the BETDAQ orange which is a fabulous punter-friendly 103%.
As for the 1,000 Guineas, I have seen 18.5 and 22.0 offers for tomorrow about Midweek, which nicely puts us ahead of the game with 32.0 taken on April 8 to win 100 points after she ran well in her trial.
We need some interest in her in the next 24 hours to give us stronger trade possibilities but, again I’m sure, we shall have a tasty value orange.
Today: 2,000 GUINEAS verdict below (ABC in the Archive on Monday)
Tomorrow: Final analysis of the 1,000 GUINEAS
HUGO FIRST! TAKE STEPS TOWARDS GOLD..
2.00 Newmarket The 2014 winner, Niceofyoutotellme (13lb higher and needs fast ground), meets last year’s fourth, Knight Owl (3lb higher, but claimed off 7lb), but both are likely to succumb to a four-year-old (six winners in the last nine seasons).
James Fanshawe knows this so, as well as Knight Owl, he’s running Arthenus, on whom Freddie Tylicki is bidding for a four-timer.
Sir Michael Stoute runs two four-year-olds, and he knows is that seven out of 10 winners in the decade carred less than 9st. But the eyecatcher is Strong Steps (17.0 on BETDAQ this morning). He has improved in the close season and for being gelded.
What is fascinating is that he’s lead horse to Galileo Gold, who has been punted for the Guineas in the last few days.
It is often the case that such a role disappoints the home-gallops pacesetter but Hugo Palmer insists that it’s raised Strong Steps’ own game.
Galileo Gold and Strong Steps belong to Sheikh Joaan, who has five-time-winner Shalaa with John Gosden.
Strong Steps swerved the Spring Cup when Newbury was abandoned (moved to Chelmsford). Victory in this handicap would be a big omen for Galileo Gold’s attack on Air Force Blue.
HILLS RATES COTAI FOR TOP SPRINT GLORY
2.30 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes) Last year’s winner came fresh to this but the five who scored before him had all raced, including Sole Power (2013-14) for his back-to-back wins. He swerved this last year and won a Group 1 at Meydan instead.
Sole Power is one of nine horses running today who would break the record for the winning age for over 40 years at least; nothing over seven.
We haven’t had such a big field for the Palace House since 2012 when stalls 2, 4 and 6 were the first three home. The year before 3, 10, 11, 5; and in 2009 the result by stall was 4, 1, 14, 9, 7, 5, 2, 3, just the one highish number getting involved.
If the Abernant is any guide (April 14) the sprint-draw pattern continues: stalls 8, 3, 1, 4, 10, 2 finished in that order, albeit with only 11 runners.
I’m discarding the high numbers (15 and over) so that, after the age deletions as well, I am left with just a lucky seven, among them the hold-up horse, Aeolus, fourth in a blanket finish to the Abernant but probably needing another furlong though the potentially fast pace will help.
Cotai Glory has never won before July but has not been well enough to do so. Charles Hills has him right now and is thinking about Group 1 and the Kings Stand Stakes.
Today is probably aiming too high for Justineo but Goken has had a run and won a Group 3 at Maisons second time out last season, while Line Of Reason wasn’t far behind Sole Power in the Flying Five at The Curragh in the autumn and should be fighting fit after two AW starts. Lancelot Du Lac also has to step up but has also raced twice this year.
York Listed winner Profitable, from the in-form Clive Cox stable of sprinting stars, ran the race of his life in the Group-1 Commonwealth Cup at Ascot.
John Gosden’s Waady – possibly badly drawn today in 22 – won the Sandown Charge and beat Profitable in the Scurry there, though Profitable was hampered and giving 3lb.
Jungle Cat had Waady behind at Newbury last Spring but is also in the high numbers (18) today
VERDICT: There are some cracking four-year-olds here heading for Group glory somewhere along the line. Cotai Glory has his big chance today from stall 10; Goken isn’t badly placed (13); but, unless something breaks fast on the far-side stars, Profitable and Waady will be struggling.
Bet I’ve probably mentioned three Group winners in those four! I took Cotai Glory at 11.0 and Profitable at 21.0
FIFTYSHADES PREPPED FOR THIS REPEAT ON AW
2.50 Goodwood Sinfonietta (had breathing problems last year) must have had an op during the winter, as he absolutely hacked up first run back. Still has the ease in the ground he needs and well drawn: 9.4 offers are tempting.
Right Touch should be ready now but is best at 6f and I prefer last year’s winner, Fiftyshadesofgrey, who prepped for this on AW three weeks ago: nice 10.5.
YOU COULD DO WORSE THAN BACK VERSE..
3.05 Newmarket (Jockey Club Stakes) A fascinating contest in which odds-on Jack Hobbs looks vulnerable, failing to win above Group-3 level after a slowly-run Irish Derby, from which the runner-up then lost five out of six starts and the third horse proved to be a dud.
I hope a five-year-old, Big Orange, doesn’t win it; that would be one in the eye for last year’s three-year-olds. He certainly should be fit enough.
Sir Michael Stoute could easily improve Exosphere this season but today’s underfoot conditions are perfect for St Leger winner and British Champion mare, Simple Verse. Huge at 6.2 in a 102% BETDAQ orange this morning.
MARCEL TO TONGUE-TIE TALKING-HORSE BLUE
3.45 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas) The air will be blue in the Ring this afternoon if the massive gamble on Vroum Vroum Mag is followed by another bookie-bashing Irish celebration should Air Force Blue win the 2,000 Guineas.
Unlike yesterday there are not two good horses to choose from, according to the market. There’s clear Blue sky between the favourite and the next best, as I write.
But I declared Marcel the ‘wrong’ price as very lightly raced winner of the Racing Post Trophy, with form lines that suggest he is as good if not better than second-favourite, Stormy Antarctic.
If Air Force Blue continues at the level of his Phoenix, National and Dewhurst Stakes hat-trick, then he is a giant, but he still has some barriers to break through.
His sire, War Front, has not yet produced a single Group-1 three-year-old winner in England and Ireland, and his last Dewhurst scorer, War Command, was only ninth in Night Of Thunder’s 2,000.
Air Force Blue is breaking records on the gallops, which means he’s a very fast sprinter or another Frankel. But which?
One worrying answer is that he’s been fitted with a tongue-tie, as if the mile on softened ground will take all the getting for such a speedster.
The money horse is Galileo Gold and you will know by now whether his lead horse, Strong Steps, has given him a boost.
Galileo Gold is strictly only a length or so behind Marcel on the same two-year-old lines so, as ever, much depends on which colt has grown up best over the winter.
You always have to be looking ahead in this game and, if Galileo Gold does well, it will be a pointer to the French Classic chances of Godolphin’s Ultra (Andre Fabre).
After a breathtaking few weeks, we now have a new jigsaw of stats and facts, but currently with many pieces missing. I’ll start off with Marcel; at least we know he’ll stay. Pricewise has two chances, so I’ll put Air Force Blue in my Daq Multiples.
ORDER-IN: 1 Marcel, 2 Air Force Blue, 3 Galileo Gold, 4 Stormy Antarctic
THE LAST IRISH FLING: CAN YOU SORT IT OUT..
5.35 Punchestown I’m putting Apple’s Jade (4.25) in my Saturday yankee today but, challenged by Pricewise, I can’t say goodbye to Punchestown and the jumps without a finsl fling at a handicap puzzle.
Sort It Out has been kept fresh to repeat his last year’s win and is tough as old riding boots -12.5 on BETDAQ – while Desoto County (8.6) has been crying out for this trip and has a future champion, Jack Kennedy, as his claimer.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 3pts win and place STRONG STEPS (2.00 Newmarket)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 5pts win COTAI GLORY, and 2.5pts win and place PROFITABLE (2.30 Newmarket)
BET (to win 20): 2.3pts win SINFONIETTA and 2pts win FIFTYSHADESOFGREY (2.50 Goodwood)
LAY to lose 10pts JACK HOBBS and BET (to win 30): 5.75pts win (nap) SIMPLE VERSE (3.05 Newmarket)
ALREADY ANTE-POST: 3.5pts (to win 50) MARCEL, plus today 5.5pts place (win 20) MARCEL (3.45 Newmarket)
BET (to win 20): 2.5pts win DESOTO COUNTY and 1.75pts win SORT IT OUT (5.35 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee STRONG STEPS (2.00 Newmarket), COTAI GLORY (2.30 Newmarket), AIR FORCE BLUE (3.45 Newmarket), APPLE’S JADE (4.25 Punchestown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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