NAP AND 13-1 DOUBLE LANDED: Daqman stepped out from under a cloud yesterday to land his nap, Thomas Brown (WON 7-4), and a double with Gonalston Cloud (WON 4-1) to pocket 22.50 points on the day. Is it the start of another winners spree which collected 226 points last weekend?
DAQMAN’S PRICEWISE PREDICTION: Going into today, Daqman leads Pricewise 22-8 (overall 268-104). Says Daqman: ‘By the time we get to Royal Ascot, I want to be 300 up.’ Last time Daqman made a prediction – about reaching 200 – he beat his target with 16 wins in hand on the due date.
SALAD DAY ON HEAVY GROUND: 13.0 BETDAQ
12.40 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) Winners of this, Katchit (won), Franchoek (2nd), Walkon (2nd), Grumeti (3rd) and Peace and Co (won last year), were all placed in the Triumph itself afterwards.
Who Dares Wins and Clan des Obeaux are the pair with strongest claims to Triumph at the festival this year and they are impossible to split in the BETDAQ market this morning.
1.15 Cheltenham Un Temps Pour Tout is consistent at Graded level over hurdles and fences (17 times placed out of 18) and has his preferred ground today, though you just feel that something up to nearly two stone below him can grab the bouquet again, after his 12 times placed as a bridesmaid
Venetia Williams’ form in this from 2007-9 was 121, with both winners gambled in to 3-1, one of them favourite.
Waldord Salad’s rating didn’t move much for the most part of 2015 but he turned over a new (lettuce?) leaf with back-to-back wins in December, shooting up 15lb., heavy ground playing to his strengths: 13.0 BETDAQ offers this morning.
Venetia’s other runner, Astigos, has won only once in 44 starts and blinkers first time are the blinds leading the blind.
Imagine The Chat is also hiked – 12lb – for beating a big field at Newbury but Javert was punished only 7lb for a 12-lengths win at Doncaster, with both second and third losing either side of it.
MASTER CLASS BY MULLINS AND DJAKADAM
1.50 Cheltenham (Gold Cup Trial) I was a Djakadam man for last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, and I still think that Ruby Walsh eased a tad at a crucial time, thinking Coneygree would come back to him. He didn’t.
The threat of Coneygree has gone but Don Poli, Don Cossack and Vautour – to name but three, as they say – lead a vanguard of angels in March, giving the race far more quality in depth than last year’s, all four sent from heaven.
And there at heaven’s gate, guardian of the golden fleece, Willie Mullins trains three of the big four. To mix my metaphors still further, he’s the man with the Midas touch right now, moreso than ever was Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, Michael Dickinson and Paul Nicholls before him.
Only O’Brien can match him from history, and I’m talking Vincent not Aidan. Vincent bagged four Gold Cups, three Grand Nationals and three Champion Hurdles in six seasons before he realised that the Flat had far bigger prizemoney to offer. So he won five Derbys instead!
Djakadam has old foes to face again here: Many Clouds and Smad Place (6th and 8th at Cheltenham last year), Sam Winner and The Giant Bolster (both pulled up).
Smad Place has since won the Hennessy and is a 7lb better horse, according to the handicapper but his Cheltenham record (033220) confirms his being just short of gold standard (I really do make metaphor pie, don’t I).
O’Faolain’s Boy, the 2014 RSA winner, and back to form on the last day, is officially a stone behind Djakadam.
With such a galaxy of stars (no more metaphors – Ed), we’ve learned this winter that every trial is a Gold Cup. What can you do, if you also have Don Poli and Vautour in your yard, but race every one on merit and decide the best two for Cheltenham. A banker, then, and more to come.
2.25 Cheltenham Annacotty took this 7lb lower on soft ground last year but has recently won the PP Gold Cup over today’s CD. His Cheltenham form is 201010.
Champagne West is a winner on heavy and has Cheltenham form of 112 at this sort of trip, but he has never won outside novice company, albeit lightly raced (12 runs, five wins) for an eight-year-old.
3.35 Cheltenham (Cleeve Hurdle) As last weekend, we’ll try for some Daq Multiples on banker-staked horses. Maximum stakes here are, of course on Thistlecrack, only 3.45 on BETDAQ for the World Hurdle.
SHANESHILL NEVER OUT OF THE FRAME
12.30 Doncaster This race always goes to the bottom half of the weights, but the handicapper has only 3lb between the best morning offers on BETDAQ: Le Legro (18.5), McCabe Creek (12.0) and Desertmore Hill (7.0 offers).
Charlie Mann, who won it in 2006 and 2009, sends out Le Legro suited by good ground.
The pair immediately behind McCabe Creek (12.0) when he ran second at Taunton in December were winners before and after the race.
Here at Doncaster over shorter, Desertmore Hill (7.0 offers) divided Graded player Le Prezien and hat-trick seeker Unbuckled. His DNA says he needs today’s longer journey
1.00 Doncaster This is a smart little collection of 2m chasers though, in fact, Bouvreuil could probably do with another half-mile on today’s surface.
But we know he’ll get a tow from front-runner Arzal, who had to take on the eponymous galloper, Ar Mad, at Kempton on the last day but with a chance of reversing the placings with the second horse home, Vaniteux, if he can get his own way this time.
However, the BETDAQ market sees a different result: it dictates (at 11.0 bar two) that Vaniteux – strictly 7lb in front of Arzal on that Kempton form –will fight out the finish with Shaneshill, another who will need a strong pace in the conditions and at the trip.
But Shaneshill, who has never been out of the frame in his life, also likes to front-run, and can blunt Arzal’s speed.
It’s a fascinating contest but, as runner-up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, a race that launches top-class chasers, and 2-2 over fences – not to mention his being trained by a certain W Mullins –his class and stamina is likely to prevail.
DRESDEN HAS DODGED THE DEEP GROUND
1.30 Doncaster Kim Bailey (Red Spinner) and Evan Williams (On Tour), both training steeplechase hat-trick-seekers here, are struggling for form, both with losing favourites among a blank for Bailey in the last fortnight and just 1-21 for Williams.
That doesn’t make their runners definite losers but it takes the edge off their prices (offers of 4.8 On Tour and 6.0 Red Spinner this morning on BETDAQ).
Dresden has dodged the deep ground since back-to-back wins at this level-2 in November, and a bit of win and place at 11.0 might be the bet. It won’t break much crockery.
Dandridge, sent over from Ireland by veteran Arthur Moore, and another looking for better ground, won a couple of chases at home last year but at equivalent lower levels.
Turn Over Sivola is seriously difficult to win with, bridesmaid form of six seconds and five thirds surrounding a solitary novice-chase success since he scored at Wincanton getting on for three years back.
2.05 Doncaster Intense Tango has failed to score since taking this race when in winning form last January while, at the other end of the form scale, Lily Waugh has had to switch from handicaps after being clobbered 21lb for a hat-trick in November-December.
Rock On The Moor has been cold-shouldered in good company and was lucky over Christmas to finish in front of an off-colour fellow Irish raider, Morning Run.
Another for Willie Mullins, she has won two out of three Grade-3s.
Her six successes out of seven came on all kinds of ground, and she might have remained unbeaten but for running a bit quickly in that Leopardstown race after having a cold over Christmas.
That she is 2.34 on BETDAQ this morning, with Rock On The Moor easy to back at 7.0 says it all.
Most trainers would give an arm and a leg to train Morning Run for Cheltenham but, such is Mullins plethora of festival horse, that her target is a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Easter.
MERCUREY RISING FOR PAUL NICHOLLS
2.40 Doncaster What price a Willie Mullins’ Town Moor hat-trick not to mention the big one at Cheltenham? Up For Review looks big at 3.15 in what appears to be an even-Stephen match with 1.77 favourite Barters Hill.
I took the Mullins on the grounds that, if he’s already scored twice, the favourites could flip-flop, with a heavy burden of Willie wonkers rolling up against the layers.
In fact, Mullins seems to be much more hopeful of Up For Review than he is of Shaneshill, so I reduced my stake on that one.
3.15 Doncaster (Great Yorkshire Chase) Betting on BETDAQ has gone more or less to the paper forecast, and without debate I’m cutting straight to the chase (pun intended), as I’ve just heard that Cheltenham is on.
Holywell has his ground but is still high in the handicap. Buywise and No Planning (from the Peter Marsh winning stable of last weekend) tend to make crucial errors. Like Buywise, Double Ross and Dolatulo are high in the handicap.
Court By Surprise is a lonely dog on raft, drifted bright over my betting weir at 30.0.
It’s still hard to have confidence in the Paul Nicholls stable but Le Mercurey (8.0) has done nothing wrong over shorter trips as a potential three-miler, and he and Ziga Boy are the youngsters who could beat the older soft-ground sloggers on this sounder surface.
Ziga Boy (10.5) beat nothing well here at Doncaster on the last day but is highly regarded by Alan King, who doesn’t make many mistakes down the handicap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated and except bankers)
BET 2.75pts win and place McCABE CREEK and 1.75pts win and place LE LEGRO, with 1.5pts win (stakes saver) DESERTMORE HILL (12.30 Doncaster)
BET (to win 20) 11.5pts win SHANESHILL (1.00 Doncaster)
BET (to win 20) 1.6pts win and place WALDORF SALAD (1.15 Cheltenham)
LAY 5pts TURN OVER SIVOLA and BET 3pts win and place DRESDEN (1.30 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 20pts win DJAKADAM (1.50 Cheltenham)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MORNING RUN (2.05 Doncaster)
BET 3.4pts win ANNACOTTY (2.25 Cheltenham)
BET 13.5pts win UP FOR REVIEW (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 4pts win LE MERCUREY and 3pts win ZIGA BOY (3.15 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 20pts win THISTLECRACK (3.35 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 3pt win trebles and 1pt win acca DJAKADAM (1.50 Cheltenham) MORNING RUN (2.05 Doncaster) UP FOR REVIEW (2.40 Doncaster) THISTLECRACK (3.35 Cheltenham)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
