10-3 NAP TO BACK UP HIS BANKER: Conditions were ‘spot on’ for Astracad, said Daqman yesterday. And his nap was spot on. Astracad (WON 100-30) had been selected at 6.4 on BETDAQ, and was his second successive winning nap, following a banker hit on Thursday:
WON 4-5 Tara View (banker nap, Thursday)
WON 100-30 Astracad (nap, from 6.4 Betdaq, Friday)
29-1 WINNER IN 79-1 FORECAST! Daqman completed a great day at Cheltenham with Wildmoor Boy (WON 16-1 from 30.0 on BETDAQ), also selecting Tudor City (2nd 4-1) in the same race for a forecast of 80.64 with Ladbrokes. Daqman says he’ll try to bowl another one up today.
FORTUNE COOKIES start their season with Thistlecrack (1.15 Cheltenham), More Of That and Frodon (2.25 Cheltenham) but horses to follow is a long-term game: what are their chances on the day?
WEALTH WARNING: RAIN THE BIG TEST
What catches the layer off guard? His biggest Test is the ground, as we’ve seen in India, where the pitch is flat and dead and the air is similar; no spin, no swing.
Some lucky punter – that should read ‘astute punter’ – cleaned up by betting there would be 1,000 runs total in the two opening innings; the only way a man is out on such a batting wicket is by error or lbw.
My tip for Astracad yesterday (‘conditions are right’) hardly rivals that but both are a warning for racing today that turf long firm is now being drenched, sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly; and strange results will occur. I’ll try to bowl one up, but I shall keep stakes down as yesterday.
12.40 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) The usual suspects have won this – Hobbs, Nicholls (3), Henderson – but none in the decade surpassed the back-to-back success (2006-7) of Alan King with a Triumph winner and a second, Katchit and Franchoek.
Kingy runs French Flat winner Dino Velvet today from the same source, having given him a run here at Chester.. and welcoming the rain.
Katchit and Franchoek had had two or three hurdles runs each before today’s test. And there are two more ex-French, one for Philip Hobbs, Defi Du Seuil, who won pulling a bus at Ffos Las, and Wealth Des Mottes for Paul Nicholls had already scored over hurdles before crossing the Channel and the penalty may not stop him.
1.15 Cheltenham Tim Vaughan and Aqalim are gluttons for punishment. They risk a fifth consecutive defeat at the hands of Thistlecrack, including when both made their chasing debut here 18 days ago.
Marinero has been kept on the go all year, and heavy-ground winner, the 27.0 offer Ballycross could be the one for the forecast with an unbackable Thistlecrack, as the rain gets in.
PADDY CAN OUTGUN THEM AS 12.0 SHOT
1.50 Cheltenham Seven-year-olds have won 4-5, but there’s been just the one winning favourite in nine seasons. Eight out of 10 winners had won at 3m and been placed at Cheltenham.
That would put a line through Viconte Du Noyer, Un Ace, Doctor Harper, Fourth Act and Warrantor, with Any Currency deleted on the softening ground.
Jonjo O’Neill (Minella Rocco and Beg To Differ) continues in very poor form, and the odds of some of his 58 losers (only seven placed) in the last 23 days tell an alarming story of zero faith in the outcome of their races: 12-1 five times, 14-1, 16-1, 25-1, 33-1, 40-1, 50-1 (twice), 100-1 (four times), even 200-1.
Positives? Alvarado, who won this three years ago, was second in the Scottish Grand National in the Spring (Midnight Prayer pulled up). Goes well fresh.
Last year’s winner Sausalito Sunrise (12lb worse off with Cogry and 19lb with Shotgun Paddy) was also a narrowly beaten third in the Sandown Gold Cup off a similar mark.
As well as putting in a finish in this race last year, Cogry (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning) was thereabouts until weakening close him in the NH Chase and Shotgun Paddy (12.0 best offers) was runner-up in the Eider Chase, and third in the Welsh National.
Unioniste and Le Reve have solid-stayers’ form but neither is fancied, lonely dogs on a raft over my betting weir out to 22.0 and 50.0 respectively, with both trainers pleading that they are too high in the handicap.
MEE IS SO FAR AHEAD ON THE RATINGS
2.25 Cheltenham (Gold Cup Handicap) This is a young man’s game: there’s been only one winner in the decade over the age of seven. Only one with more than 11st 2lb in the saddle.
I put up Frodon for the race before he won his prep (see Archive) and my stable report which prompted that – ‘’he’s a jaw-dropping jumper’ – has been borne out on the racecourse. Frodon remains backable at 9.8, though a four-year-old has never won this race.
But I’m also openmouthed here at the handicap position of his stablemate As De Mee. He ran up to More Of That at level weights in the Steel Plate And Sections last year (won impressively by O O Seven yesterday) but now gets 15lb with More Of That’s stable badly out of form with a zero strike-rate.
For More Of That to be favourite (6.2 this morning) is ludicrous, with As De Mee bigger at 7.8. More Of That was a place lay at 2.34 in the Betdaq green this morning.
2.50 Uttoxeter Special Wells has been in great form at Uttoxeter – first, second and third there in the last three runs – and Sue Smith thinks that the 6.8 Betdaq offer will be even better stepped up in trip.
3.00 Cheltenham Youth again; lightweights again. Only one has won above the age of seven; none with 11st or more.
I wouldn’t put you off Supreme Vinnie (14.5) and Very Extravagant (15.0) if the ground has not become too soft but Will O’the West (10.0), who wants the rain, ran a cracker over 3m here three weeks ago.
3.35 Cheltenham The cream rises to the top here, with no winner in nthe decade set to carry less than 10st 10lb and only one older than six.
The luckless bridesmaid For Good Measure was a nervous favourite this morning. I couldn’t have Black Corton until I know he gets the trip. I fancied Midnight Shot (10.0 Betdaq) to continue his improvement, as long as the ground doesn’t get too deep.
Charles Byrnes, who won this last year, has brought over Top Of The Town for the better ground but the going could turn soft on him and, potentially, ruin his chances. That’s where I came in. Good luck!
DAQMAN’S TIPS (staked as stated)
BET (to win 10 points) 4.44pts win WEALTH DES MOTTES (12.40 Cheltenham)
BET (to win 30) 3.8pts win COGRY and 2.75pts win SHOTGUN PADDY (1.50 Cheltenham)
PLACE LAY to lose 10pts MORE OF THAT and BET (to win 30 points each) 4.4pts win AS DE MEE and 3.4pts win FRODON (2.25 Cheltenham)
BET (to win 20): 3.4pts win (nap) SPECIAL WELLS (2.50 Uttoxeter)
BET (to win 20) 2pts win and place WILL O’THE WEST, and 1.4pts win and place VERY EXTRAVAGANT (3.00 Cheltenham)
BET (to win 20): 2pts win and place MIDNIGHT SHOT (3.35 Cheltenham)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
