DAQMAN WRITES HIS OWN HEADLINES: Goshen’s first chase. Ahoy Senor v Bravemansgame (score 1-1 over fences). Gary Moore farms the Ascot meeting. Twiston’s two-pronged London Gold Cup attack. Just some of the stories behind the headlines at Ascot and Wetherby today. Daqman’s tips, up to win-50 level, usually write their own Saturday headlines!
GOSHEN FORM FLAW: JUST WATCH
PROSCHEMA PLAN FOR REVENGE
MAJOR CHANCE OF TAKING GOLD
BRAVEMAN CAN RAISE HIS GAME
9.0 NOBEL PRIZE BETDAQ VALUE
NEXT WEEK: Monday guide to Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup
GOSHEN FORM FLAW: JUST WATCH
⭕ 1.30 Ascot The quirky Goshen, 157 over hurdles, launches his chase career at a meeting his trainer, Gary Moore, loves to exploit: Moore has won this novices’ handicap chase twice and the London Gold Cup (see below) three times since 2016.
Goshen’s downfall at Cheltenham has been a strong tendency to hang right, and Goodwood on the Flat and Wincanton over the sticks are his favourite tracks. You’d think Ascot would suit: he won there as a juvenile but his hurdles form against the grown-ups there last year was 40. Watching brief.
⭕ 2.40 Ascot Goshen is trying to follow stablemate Nassalam, Moore’s third chaser bidding for glory this afternoon. Nassalam won the opening novice chase last year, going into his own fencing launch off just 140 over hurdles.
Gumball, back to form on the Flat a month ago, hasn’t won over Jumps since 2019 but is a stone below last season’s mark at this time, and Fergal O’Brien has had eight placed in a row, still standing.
Monsieur Lecoq, winner of this last year, is 2lb lower, and is the only other horse in the race to have been on the track recently (in a Chepstow hurdle early this month), clearly aiming at a repeat. He won last year on the disqualification (banned substance) of Amoola Gold but that one has done nothing since.
And Before Midnight, who scored three times in 2021 after breaks, completed a four-timer when beating Amoola Gold a short-head over today’s CD (good). Amoola Gold is 10lb better off now so, in theory, Before Midnight has no chance with Monsieur Lecoq at a difference of 17lb.
BETDAQ value 4.7 Gumball, 9.3 Monsieur Lecoq
PROSCHEMA PLAN FOR REVENGE
⭕ 3.00 Wetherby (West Yorkshire Hurdle) A three-miler which has a poor record for favourites (1-10), despite small fields.
Even Paisley Park was beaten favourite, third, in last year’s race; the one-two, Indefatigable and Proschema, meet again with Proschema 6lb better off for two-and-a-half lengths.
Proschema, a novice-hurdle winner at Wetherby on the soft early in his career, was given a tough task in the Haydock Long Distance Handicap in May, but came from the back to finish third, giving 21lb and 27lb to the placed horses.
Sporting John returned to hurdles last November with winning form at Cheltenham and Warwick. His record after a break is: 11311.
But his stable form is currently poor: 1-10, the win in a three-horse race (two finished), with the stable’s last three favourites all missing strike, including a void race: PV2.
Adrian Heskin always rides Threeunderthrufive, Paul Nicholls describing their form together as ‘phenomenal’. Chase form up to Cheltenham last season: 21111. But he has not won outside novice company over hurdles.
The ratings have Sporting John narrowly ahead of Thomas Darby, the Newbury Long-Distance Hurdle winner of 2021, who has to bounce back after a wind op.
Oscar Elite was third in the Ultima at Cheltenham, not quite seeing it through (bled from the nose and needed wind surgery): he’s patched up now on both those fronts but may need looking after today.
His trainer, Joe Tizzard, has had a couple of hurdles winners (favourites) in the last fortnight but his chasers have been missing strike: 02242P22UP.
BETDAQ value 5.6 Proschema
MAJOR CHANCE OF TAKING GOLD
⭕ 3.15 Ascot (London Gold Cup) This 3m chase has gone three times in six seasons to Gary Moore, who lines up Full Back to defend the CV, assuming more rain.
Full Back, who scored at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day (3m 2f) on the soft, faces the Scottish Grand National third, Major Dundee (Alan King), who won after the summer break last season.
Nigel Twiston-Davies swerves the Grade-2 Charlie Hall Chase for this Class 1 with Good Boy Bobby, who is marginally top-weight in this one but would have been bottom-rated in the non-handicap at Wetherby.
It must have been a hard call because Bobby’s chase form started with a win at this Wetherby meeting over shorter a year ago.
It blossomed with second in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, then winner on Boxing Day of the Rowland Meyrick, which is also at Wetherby, and was his first chase over 3m.
LAYS LOGIC: Our Power drops from Graded level – fifth in the Ultima – but is a stuffy horse who has only ever won small-field novice chases over fences and his winning jockey, Sam Twiston-Davies, rides Poppa Poutine, a strong stayer who is not out of it for the Good Boy Bobby camp.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.4 Major Dundee, 11.5 Poppa Poutine, 17.0 Good Boy Bobby
BRAVEMAN CAN RAISE HIS GAME
⭕ 3.35 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) Paul Nicholls has Bravemansgame and Secret Investor trying to follow his success in this three-miler with Silviniaco Contio (2012) and Cyrname (2020).
Bravemansgame, who landed four novice-chases in a row starting last autumn, flopped behind Ahoy Senor in the Mildmay at the Grand National meeting, so the score over fences between them is 1-1.
The Senor had also beaten him in the Sefton Novices at Aintree during their time over hurdles, so it may be that Braveman bottles it at Aintree!
The pair, both aged seven, are locked on 161 in the ratings, just a pound behind Eldorado Allen but each getting 5lb from the Denman Chase winner.
What may create a gap is Bravemansgame returns after a wind op, which could make him braver in a finish.
BETDAQ value 3.0 Bravemansgame
9.0 NOBEL PRIZE BETDAQ VALUE
⭕ 4.33 Newmarket (James Seymour Stakes) Three-year-olds usually take this and both Lord North and Bay Bridge, winner of the Champion Stakes recently, landed the 1m 2f Listed at that age.
Ottoman Fleet and Jack Darcy are just a pound apart at the weights, but the unbeaten Nobel (2-2) could bridge the gap.
Tightening things up even further, Ottoman Fleet races off similar ratings to the older Migration and Algiers but both have to give him a pound.
Royal Fleet has to concede weight all round but is Charlie Appleby stable companion to Ottoman Fleet, so it’s all going to get tactical.
BETDAQ value 9.0 Nobel
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.40 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win GUMBALL
BET 2.5pts win MONSIEUR LECOQ
3.00 Wetherby (win 20)
BET 4.25pts win PROSCHEMA
3.15 Ascot (win 50, win 20 x 2)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3pts win GOOD BOY BOBBY
BET 3pts win MAJOR DUNDEE
BET 2pts win POPPA POUTINE
3.35 Wetherby (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win BRAVEMANSGAME
4.33 Newmarket (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win NOBEL
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