DAQMAN PUNTS 15.5 SHOT IN THE IRISH DERBY: Pricewise of the Racing Post, who is 45-8 down in returns against Daqman, swerves the Irish Derby today as too difficult. So Daqman’s punt on an outsider is not going to affect his level-stakes lead of 198 points. Daqman’s win-and-place bet opened at 15.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
THREE WINNERS BUT GABRIAL GAMBLE BUST: Daqman landed three winners yesterday, but would rather have clawed in the big cash from one of the gambles of the day, 8.8 BETDAQ offer Gabrial The Tiger (3rd 4-1), a bull’s-eye bet at Chester. There’s another bull’s-eye target today in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.
WON 5-1 ZEFTAN
WON 2-1 CENTURY DREAM
WON 8-11 HAPPILY
DOUGLAS JOOSTE DANDY AT 15.5
5.20 The Curragh (Irish Derby): See ABC guide yesterday.
The big two questions about Aidan O’Brien answer each other. How does he have so many good horses? How does he win so many Classics? Success breeds success, money goes to money, and his owners – The Lads – are still counting the cash in terms of future stallion-fees after Wings Of Eagles won the Epsom Derby.
But, for the first time this year, another question is raised as the Ballydoyle maestro saddles five in the nine-runner Irish Derby today. How does he please The Lads’ new pal, Markus Jooste?
Markus, the man who sponsored Poundland Hill at Epsom, has a stake with The Lads in only one of the five, Douglas Macarthur.
Did Aidan tell Markus it was Jooste one of those things when Douglas Macarthur acted as pacemaker, searing round Epsom like the proverbial scalded cat? Or did he say ’your turn next time’?
Imagine it! Douglas Macarthur races in his own right today and The Lads – not forgetting M Jooste – end up with TWO super stallions instead of one. It’s not a great year for the colts and different tactics can produce different results.
Everyone’s been trying to second guess what the Ballydoyle plan will be today, and that’s my take on it. A win-and-place Douglas Macarthur, who opened 15.5 on BETDAQ early mouse.
You could argue for Wings of Eagles again after his last-gasp Epsom triumph when Douglas Macarthur had run most of the field into the ground.
You could argue that the Epsom third, Cracksman, is having only the fourth run of his career today, so can make the big step forward.
You could argue that Waldgeist, in the Hurricane Run colours, is the one guaranteed to stay and that the Ballydoyle pacesetters could inadvertently set it up for him.
What you can’t argue you with is that The Curragh is a different track. It’s much harder to claw back the lead that Douglas Macarthur had at Epsom, if he can just hold fire a bit and then make his charge from the turn-in.
Had any one of the first three forced it at Epsom round that demanding track, he would have faded up the hill as Douglas did.
I thought him a must for the Eclipse but O’Brien has earmarked Derby second, Cliffs Of Moher, for that race instead, and reckons Douglas Macarthur has a better Derby chance today as brother to an Oaks winner out of a half-sister to New Approach.
ANGEL HAS ROYAL CONNECTIONS
2.40 Newmarket Elizabeth Bennet has a date in the Moyglare. No others in this have pretentions to Group-1 play, but this is a race farmed by the Hannons (four wins in nine years) and Tajaanus’ sire was unbeaten as a two-year-old including in the Prix Morny.
Karl Burke won it in 2015 and Ellthea beat nothing well at Carlisle. Richard Fahey gives himself two chances: Dance Diva won at Haydock despite being very green, but the Maggie’s Angel form is much more interesting.
The three behind her when she was fourth at York are all winners, and in front of her was the Albany Stakes fourth and Queen Mary fifth at Royal Ascot. Gerald Mosse rides this 10.5 BETDAQ offer.
2.45 Windsor My man in the long grass at Henry Candy’s watched African Friend fly past class-4 winner Noble Peace. Always highly regarded but has had his problems. Now ready for better things for the Limato stable from this lowly class-5 starting point.
HOT DISH IS ON A PLATE AT 23.0
3.30 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate)
TRENDING: Though nine of the 12 placed horses behind them came out of double-figure stalls, the winners of this in the three years of Tapeta have been drawn 1, 3 and 3.
Only younger horses (two aged four, one of five) have scored in the three seasons. The top three on today’s card and the bottom five are all outside the winning-ratings parameter.
TURNKEY FORM: 93% of winners had scored at 1m4f or further and 66% had been successful at Ascot. Flymetothestars, Gavlar, Good Run and Natural Scenery are the only runners to have won on this Tapeta surface.
ANALYSIS: Hot Beat couldn’t get a clear run when third over CD in February and is now 13lb better off to make up around three lengths on the winner, Natural Scenery, yet is three times the price.
Hot Beat is a hidden horse. A one-time German Derby contender, before gelded and switched to David Simcock, showed an ‘unbelievable turn of foot’, according to jockey Martin Harley after the combo won at Wolver.
Like Natural Scenery, Flymetothestars is a Newcastle-Tapeta CD winner, his form boosted when the runner-up ran second in the Ascot Stakes, with the Chester Cup fourth in third. Solid stuff.
Locally-trained Seamour has struggled to cope with a rating of around 103 since winning the 2015 Brown Jack Stakes at Ascot, including runner-up in this last year and second in the Ebor. Doesn’t need to improve much but can he really find any more at the age of six?
Jaameh has shot up the handicap and Good Run, a Godolphin like Natural Scenery, is another CD winner but has failed to cope with his rise in the handicap.
It’s a similar story with Higher Power but it’s cherlish to describe him as a nearly horse after his Henry 11 Stakes (Sandown) defeat by Big Orange with the Ascot Gold Cup fourth, She Is No Lady, just behind, receiving weight.
VERDICT: Higher Power has the class but he also has the weight, a stone higher than his last winning form! Seamour is 10lb high and a couple of years too old, so my short shot is Flymetothestars (around 6.0 on BETDAQ) and my long shot Hot Beat, early-mouse 23.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless otherwise stated)
1.50 Newcastle
BET 5pts win AMAZOUR
2.40 Newmarket
BET 3pts win and place MAGGIE’S ANGEL
2.45 Windsor
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) AFRICAN FRIEND (2.45 Windsor)
3.00 Newcastle
BET 11pts win LONDON PRIZE
3.15 Newmarket
BET 6pts win BRETON ROCK
3.30 Newcastle
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.25pts win and place HOT BEAT
BET 6pts win FLYMETOTHESTARS
5.20 The Curragh
BET 2pts win and place DOUGLAS MACARTHUR
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