14.5 EVE-OF-CHELTENHAM OUTSIDER: New Year’s Eve is Daqman’s big Imperial Cup punt at 14.5 as Cheltenham looms large next week.
HE’LL WIN A BIG RACE THIS YEAR: That’s not our man talking about his nap, Gabriel’s Lad, in a Ladbrokes-sponsored race at Wolverhampton, but jockey Paul Hanagan after the horse ran in a Group race at Newmarket last backend.
AND THE SCORE: DAQMAN 25, PRICEWISE 9: Talking of big races, the score since Daqman challenged Pricewise last November 23 is Daqman 25 returns, Pricewise 9. Now read on.
2.05 Sandown (National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final) Six-year-olds have the right amount of experience for this (6 wins in 8 seasons), as the quality of the race has gone up.
Four of the last five winners were rated 128, 130, 132 and 128, a narrow parameter in which you’ll find just five horses, two of them six-year-olds, this afternoon.
You need to be with the big yards, which have quality in depth to choose from. So it is that only once in 10 years have the usual suspects (Henderson, Pipe, Nicholls, O’Neill and Co) been vanquished.
David Pipe and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers represented today with horses near the top of the markets for the big novice hurdles at Cheltenham
And only Caesar Milan (behind Champagne West) and Gone Too Far (rear view of Vaniteux) of this final field have taken on big-time Cheltenham contenders.
I’m opposing David Pipe – Doctor Harper and Knight Of Noir are both giving weight to all – who has managed to field six out of seven losing favourites in the last two weeks.
Caesar Milan’s quick runs worry me, and he’s a horse that’s bled, had ringworm, needs a tongue-tie. Gone Too Far needs the ground to dry out. He’s has not been jumping well on a sticky surface.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Mud-lover Horizontal Speed (8.4 on BETDAQ this morning) has more hurdles experience – six runs – than any other horse in the race and has had this as his target all along.
2.20 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes) I doff my barbisio (hat) whenever I pass West Ilsley, out of respect for that doyen of trainers, Major Dick Hern, who handled Troy to win the 1979 Derby.
I have to report that the galloping major, who was following in the illustrious footsteps of Jack Colling at the fabulous Berkshire base, never came to tea at Troy House, the home I bought on the proceeds of my hefty punt.
It’s an Irish time of year – yes, the invasion on Cheltenham has begun – and maybe Irishman Denis Coakley, who trains at West Ilsley, intends to win his festival wallet with Gabriel’s Lad in this Ladbrokes-sponsored Listed.
Gabriel’s Lad has landed a win – on Kempton AW – and a second in a big sprint at Newmarket first run back in the last two seasons. He climbed in distance from sprints to today’s 7f and in class from handicaps to run in a Group-2 last backend, again at Newmarket.
The 2010 and 2011 champion jockey Paul Hanagan, who rode him in that Group 2, afterwards declared: ‘This is a very good horse and there will be a big race in him next year.’
Marco Botti is 1001 in today’s race, and 11 of his last 19 runners have finished in the frame. Hasopop, who kept Listed and Group company on turf, had a promising recent run back at Lingfield.
Another Group performer, Highland Knight, usually needs a couple of runs, and Andrew Balding may do better with Listed placed Intransigent, just returned from campaigning in Dubai.
Bertiewhittle, Listed second at Kempton in November, and also back from Dubai to run a close third at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He is one of those much-loved horses who is forgiven anything by Joe Punter.
But I can’t forgive him a long run as a bridesmaid last season, with form figures 20200222303. I might still be interested if he hadn’t gone up in the weights without winning, 19lb higher than his last success way back in the summer of 2011.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I‘m a lay Bertiwhittle. I’d much rather take an early position Gabriel’s Lad. I mean not only early in today’s market – 6.8 on BETDAQ, as I write – but also early in the Lad’s 2014 career.
He’s had not a lot of racing for his age – 16 runs, with a very solid nine times in the first two – and he is the first of my horses to follow for the Flat 2014. In other words, whatever happens today, I think we’ll get out money back. And some.
2.55 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial Handicap) Third is the best the winner of this could do in the Lincoln itself in the last five years. Only one horse drawn lower than six has won in 10 years: gates 9 to 13 are six from 10.
Lincoln contenders are last year’s winner of this, Strictly Silver, the 2012 Victoria Cup winner, Global Village (well drawn in 12), Cambridgeshire third Tres Coronas (likely to need today’s run), Star Links, Tellovoi, Whispering Warrior, Postscript.
Alan Bailey, who’s won it twice in the last three years, goes for back-to-back wins with Strictly Silver, which doesn’t happen in this race, Silver has been out of form lately, including when visors were fitted last time, and is badly drawn in 2.
Older horses – past six – rarely have the speed for this (strike rate 1-15 in the last five years), and it’s time to oppose the nine-year-old Noble Citizen (drawn 4), who’s scooted to a hat-trick round Southwell but is up 18lb and his Wolver form is 00.
At the front of the BETDAQ market this morning, Alfred Hutchinson gives weight all round; Whispering Warrior (badly drawn in 3) has always struggled when raised above class 4.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Fashion Line, 7.4 on the Daq as I right, is up in grade, too, but lightly raced and well drawn in 10, getting weight from all bar Sky Khan, who is prepping for Cheltenham (four entries)!
Fashion Line’s trainer, Michael Bell, has started the year with a 50% record (4-8) on AW, 100% with four-year-olds-plus.
3.15 Sandown (Imperial Cup) The last 10 winners, and 27 out of 31, have carried less than 11st. Only four successful in those 31 seasons have been older than seven.
Olympian (1993 Coral Cup) and Blowing Wind (2002 Mildmay) for Martin Pipe and Gaspara (2007 Fred Winter) for David have all pulled off big bonuses by following up their Imperial Cup win at Cheltenham.
The Pipes’ Baltimore Rock looks ideally placed for the first leg today, if only the stable had been showing better form.
Champion bumper runner-ups New Year’s Eve (2012) and Regal Encore (2013) both have outstanding chances. Vibrato Valtat, runner-up to Supreme Novice fancy Vaniteux at Sandown, has to win this to get into the County Hurdle.
The form of his Exeter win would have been franked by the runner-up my nap, Tiqris, last Saturday, but he was brought down when making his challenge
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: What I like about Vibrato Valtat and New Year’s Eve (14.5) is that both jump out of the mud and can quicken in heavy ground. New Year’s Eve has won over further, also a good signd for Sandown, with that notorious hill finish.
3.50 Sandown (NH Flat race) A race of 10 previous winners but subsequent second in the Aintree Festival bumper is the best any winner of this has done. It’s a race for pinstickers and those with insider information.
Terrestrial-TV viewers have enough to put up with as punters with the plethora of small-field pattern races, without imposing mares’ bumpers on us. Back to the end of the card please, you breeders!
DAQMAN’S BETS (All win singles staked to win 30 points. Lays step up to 20-point bankers at Cheltenham and others will now be ‘lays of the day’)
BET 4pts win HORIZONTAL SPEED (2.05 Sandown)
BET 5pts win (nap) GABRIEL’S LAD (2.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 10pts win VIBRATO VALTAT and 2.2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) NEW YEAR’S EVE (3.15 Sandown)
BET 3pts win FASHION LINE (2.55 Wolverhampton)
LAYS OF THE DAY: Bertiwhittle (2.20 Wolverhampton), Noble Citizen (2.55 Wolverhampton)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: De La Bech (2.40 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win double Gabriel’s Lad (2.20 Wolverhampton) and Fashion Line (2.55 Wolverhampton)
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