DAQMAN’S NAP LANDS THE GAMBLE: HOME FOR ALL MONEY: Daqman, who landed his nap yesterday, Sea The Shells (7-10 to 2-5 favourite), a gamble which covered all other bets, takes an entirely different view of favourites for Cheltenham next week, as he revealed in his previews of the last four days. He launched Lays Logic, in which he tries to expose the favourites’ flaws. Today’s headlines:
🔹 TRUE VALUE (IMPERIAL MEASURE)
🔹 PATROCLUS CLIMBING THE LADDER
🔹 OH BOY! MOORE IS ON A MISSION
🔹 BETDAQ 12.0: IS IT A STRATAGEM?
BIG VALUE THE PROMISE OF GREAT CHELTENHAM ON BETDAQ: Today and tomorrow, Daqman reveals that it’s not only the favourites you might want to oppose but horses which are ‘overbet’, too short for what they’ve done. Look at them alongside the value in BETDAQ. And look at that value alongside the promise for next week: CHELTENHAM % COMMISSION ON BETDAQ
TRUE VALUE (IMPERIAL MEASURE)
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Imperial Cup) Favourites 1-10. Only four winners above the age of seven since 1983. Only one carried more than 10st 13lb in 16 years (7 out of 9 won off 10st 7lb or less).
Trainers: David Pipe (3), Paul Nicholls (2), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2); one each for Lucy Wadham and Ian Williams.
LAYS LOGIC: Natural History Connections thought he might have to run and win again to get in but the handicapper clobbered him 16lb for scoring at Plumpton in a five-horse race.
Group-3 second on the Flat but I’m no fan of the Gary ‘Goshen’ Moore stable with its in-and-out form, far too often missing strike.
In fact, the word right now is ‘out’ after The Flying Sofa flopped at 15-8 favourite yesterday, giving the yard three-day form figures of PPP030P3032. BETDAQ 3.5 orange (3.8 green). Daqman’s order in:
1: HASANABAD Big, strong sort off a featherweight. Needs further, and expect him to be staying on off a likely good pace. Stable knows how to place them and had five winners last weekend.
2: MIRANDA Unbeaten in four mares’ hurdles including Grade-2 defeat of Christmas Hurdle fourth Floressa, who was at one time thought a good thing for this.
All Paul Nicholls runners in this have been easy to back this morning, and the saver to my front two will be the one that makes a late market move.
3: MALAYA Won this last year 2lb higher and now 8lb below penalised mark for her last-gasp strike that day, after blundering badly two out.
4: Natural History Third fourth or fifth is where I’d expect to find an inexperienced hurdler who won what the trainer describes as ‘a terrible race’ at Plumpton.
5 Eamon An Cnoic CD scorer on heavy and well handicapped if the rains come down. David Pipe also runs Leoncavallo
6: Langer Dan Finished close up in the Fred Winter last year and one of several entered for Cheltenham next week. Wind ops need to have found him a few pounds.
BETDAQ VALUE 11.5 Hasanabad 16.0 Miranda, 20.0 Eamon An Cnoic. OVERBET 3.5 Natural History, 5.8 Langer Dan, 7.5 Leoncavallo.
PATROCLUS CLIMBING THE LADDER
⭕ 1.50 Sandown (NH Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final) You can go through the form half a dozen times and get half a dozen answers.
But to me it’s always been a race about the future, and Paul Nicholls gave us As De Mee and McFabulous to win this and reveal big futures for themselves as top chasing prospects.
Nicky Henderson has won it twice in the decade and you can’t stop Nico De Boinville talking up Patroclus, whom I’ve tipped for Daqman in both his wins. Tasty 9.6 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as he climbs the ladder.
OH BOY! MOORE IS ON A MISSION
⭕ 2.40 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial) The one thing winners of this don’t do is win the Lincoln! In the last decade they have finished no closer than seventh at Doncaster: Lowther 7th (2011), Strictly Silver 8th (2013), Whispering Warrior 11th (2014), Big Country 16th (2018); Zwayyan 7th (2019).
Zwayyan is back for more, aged eight now and winners have been four and five in eight of the last nine years. But there is no other CD winner in the field.
Man Of The Night ran a cracker on the July Course but 40-1 says his place that day under today’s rider, Sean Levey, was unexpected.
AW debut today and hasn’t won since his very first race (at odds on), always a bad sign. Levey swerves his usual ride, The Gill Brothers.
Tadleel is 3-4 on Tapeta but his recent double at Newcastle has been over 7f. Ex-Irish On A Session has won only sprints. Milltown Star has not won at a mile but is a course winner here.
Mission Boy is 6lb better off for three lengths with Born To Be Alive (a surprise winner at 18-1 after 12 defeats) but both are drawn wide in 10 and 13.
However, Mission Boy is a rear runner, so the draw may actually be beneficial, and he looks big at 7.7 on BETDAQ this morning.
The Boy has done well enough in his first two races in UK, switched to Marco Botti, who calls on in-form Ryan Moore (seven winners for him) first time this year.
BETDAQ 12.0: IS IT A STRATAGEM?
⭕ 3.35 Sandown Gary Moore has ‘done a Mark Prescott’ with High Up In The Air; a sequence of five wins, stepping up from class 5 to class 3, costing 35lb on the scales, as the handicapper tries to take back control.
The seven-year-old has stayed on a High through all the Moore trials and tribulations but this is his biggest leap of all in grade, trying to take a class-1 Listed off the back of class 3 success 9lb and 15lb lower.
Up The Straight is living off his Fontwell second to Umbrigado and could be placed again in an open race.
Findon to me is still about mighty men, Ryan Price and Josh Gifford, but Josh’s son, Nick, is himself on a bit of a high just now (two wins out of three).
He tries again at 2m 4f with Belargus, after an impressive win here at Sandown over the minimum three weeks back.
No Getaway was also impressive at the same meeting over today’s trip and stepping out of novice company. Hit for a 10lb rise. Annsam (12lb) also feels the handicapper’s cosh.
But he may be wrong in thinking he’s nailed Stratagem, first time in a handicap today and very impressive on good to soft at Doncaster.
Like the Nicholls runners in the Imperial Cup, he’s a drifter this morning (out to 12.0) which may be worries about the ground, so I’ll just have a bit each way.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Sandown (win 50)
BET 5.75pts win PATROCLUS
2.25 Sandown (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win HASANABAD
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win MIRANDA
2.40 Wolverhampton (win 50, nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7.5pts win MISSION BOY
3.35 Sandown (win 30, place win 10 )
BET 2.75pts win and place STRATAGEM
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