DAQMAN HAS BETDAQ VALUE BEHIND HUGE BULL’S-EYE ODDS: BETDAQ value wins again and again but Daqman is hitting the wire! After Thursday’s third at 9-2 (BETDAQ 7.6) and second at 12-1 (BETDAQ 19.0), he yesterday landed places in the opening York handicap at 9-1 (Throne Hall from BETDAQ 16.5) and 11-1 (Dark Jedi from BETDAQ 14.0). Today he has more bull’s-eye bets 11.0, 12.0, 14.0, 20.0, 27.0 and 36.0.
Standings:
DAQMAN 50, PRICEWISE 29
SUPERNAPS 13-17 (76%)
LAYS LOGIC 12-17 (70%)
FORTUNE COOKIES 9-22 (40%)
WEATHER AFFECTS ORDER-IN FOR THE EBOR HANDICAP: The weather is a damper today – how much will the rain affect the ground? – but Daqman checks out his Ebor runners for going ability and adjusts his position. He also has a Fortune Cookie at York and a supernap at Sandown.
Headlines:
RAIN IS GLOBAL STORM WARNING
SUPERNAP’S GOING TO THE MOON
CASTLE ALL THE WAY FOR BUICK
STOUTE FILLY TO LAND THIS POT
RAIN IS GLOBAL STORM WARNING
⚠️ HEADS UP Rain (‘showers, heavy at times’) could change the good-to-firm ground in forecast ‘umbrella weather.’ This seemingly favours Tribal Craft, who moves up my order-in from fifth, and is a worry for backers of Away He Goes, moved down from second.
The chance of soft ground saw sustained support last night for Hamish (second to Trueshan on heavy) and Mt Leinster (all five wins on soft). William Haggas and Johnny Murtagh each have two strong contenders.
⭕ 3.35 York (Ebor Handicap) STATS: 16 of the 21 winners this century were aged five and six (except one of seven); four-year-olds won only three. Irish trainers have bagged six, including Johnny Murtagh, who saddles two today.
Andrea Atzeni has had four rides: a winner and two others placed. Draw: double-figure stalls 13 out of 15 places in five years.
1 ILARAAB Six wins in a row (two on soft) including 2-2 at York, where he easily won the Race-To-The Ebor Handicap in May over strong yardstick Raymond Tusk. Quickens extremely well. Trainer also runs Hamish.
2 TRIBAL CRAFT Modest form in 2020 but has taken off this year on soft ground; up 12lb, winning fillies’ 1m 6f Group 3 here at York in the Spring; second to Wonderful Tonight on soft in Group 2 at Goodwood.
3 GLOBAL STORM Beaten less than a length (1m 6f Newmarket), giving 6lb to the winner, Live Your Dream, who was Ebor favourite for today but missed the cut. Stable won the Great Voltigeur this week. Has won at the trip on soft.
4 HAMISH Very lightly raced; 2-2 at York including the 2020 Melrose, which is a three-year-olds version of the Ebor. Just one run last year, in the Hardwicke (hampered home turn, lost right fore shoe); clearly laid out for the race. Value probably gone but Ilaraab punters need to have a stable saver. The rest in ABC order:
Away He Goes Drops back to handicaps after four tries at Group level, including third to subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Subjectivist in the Dubai Gold Cup. Likes quick ground and trainer Ismail Mohammed won the Lowther on Thursday. Has 2lb more to carry in future races.
Fujaira Prince Last year’s winner; 6lb higher now but primed for the race again after third on the course in the John Smith’s.
Humanitarian Very lightly raced, seventh 2019 Epsom Derby, back to form at Newbury in September, has first try at 1m 6f in a first-time hood. Has swerved soft ground.
Mt Leinster You can never ignore a Willie Mullins runner (he won this in 2009), and this one is on a hat-trick today after winning on the soft at Listowel and the Curragh. Backed in to favourite spot this morning; value probably gone.
Shanroe Another Race-To-The-Ebor winner when he beat Group-placed Pondus at The Curragh in June. Likes soft ground.
Sonnyboyliston/Quickthorn/Mirann Sonnyboy was third behind Japan and Trueshan in the Ormonde (Group 3) in May and, after Listed success, ran too freely, sixth to Hukum in the York Silver Cup (this trip). That was a good ‘sighter’ but he seems to prefer top of the ground.
Trainer Johnny Murtagh also runs the classy Mirann, fourth behind Quickthorn at Royal Ascot on heavy. This pair are low drawn, and single-figure stalls are a positioning barrier only overcome on good ground in the decade.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE 12 Ilaraab, 14 Global Storm, 20 Tribal Craft
SUPERNAP’S GOING TO THE MOON
⭕ 1.50 York Royal Hunt Cup winner Real World, capable of stepping into Group company, is the Fortune Cookie today, and two-year-old filly Quick Suzy can score at Deauville tomorrow, so every chance of a double.
⭕ 2.05 Sandown (Solario Stakes) Harrow’s success at York on Thursday was his second strike since Reach For The Moon ran away from him at Newbury.
The Moon himself had been eclipsed by Aidan O’Brien’s Point Lonsdale (Great Max outpaced in third) but that’s still supernap status here.
Point Lonsdale seems high in the Ballydoyle pecking order after taking the Tyros, which has thrown up Gleneagles, Churchill and Anthony Van Dyck among 15 O’Brien winners.
CASTLE ALL THE WAY FOR BUICK
⭕ 2.25 York (Melrose Handicap) We’ll know more about the state of the ground after this, the three-year-olds’ Ebor, won in 2019 by Hamish for Willie Haggas, who also took it with Guarantee in 2012.
Haggis saddles Dhushan today, a sound-surface winner who ‘ran too free’ at Royal Ascot (Surrey Gold behind).
The Sea The Stars grey is clearly highly regarded, as favourite in every one of his five races, but is not bred to cope with soft ground.
Brother to the Irish Derby ‘fluke’, Serpentine, slow-maturing King Of The Castle, was runner-up in the Ulster Derby before breaking his maiden on soft ground the last day.
Imperial Sun improves as he is stepped up in trip but makes a big leap from class 5 for this, and King Of The Castle (William Buick), who likes to go with the pace, could stretch them in a ‘Serpentine’ Melrose.
True Courage and Ravenscraig Castle are sequence horses still down the handicap. Ravenscraig is a Nathaniel, so could improve again; True Courage has won on firm but his French Derby winning sire, gets colts who act well on the soft.
BETDAQ value 9.2 King Of The Castle, 27 Ravenscraig Castle, 36 True Courage
STOUTE FILLY TO LAND THIS POT
⭕ 2.40 Sandown (Atalanta Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute is not the force he was but developing fillies and mares is his forte and this is one of his favourite races.
There’s rain about at Sandown, too, but not so that Potapova will be as inconvenienced as when down the field in the Coronation Stakes (Royal Ascot, heavy) behind Alcohol Free, Snow Lantern and Mother Earth, three of the top fillies of this Classic generation.
She had won her two previous starts, more than six lengths at Chelmsford in November and eight lengths at Redcar on her return in the Spring.
Saffron Beach ran up to the sparkling filly star, Sacred, when they met in the Nell Gwyn, and was a length runner-up to Mother Earth in the 1,000 Guineas. Can she stage a comeback?
BETDAQ value 6.0 Saffron Beach, 11.0 Potapova
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 York
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win REAL WORLD
2.05 Sandown
SUPERNAP
BET 20pts win REACH FOR THE MOON
2.25 York (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, 10pt places)
BET 6pts win KING OF THE CASTLE
BET 2pts win and place RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE
BET 1.5pts win and place TRUE COURAGE
2.40 Sandown (win 20)
BET 4pts win SAFFRON BEACH
BET 2pts win POTAPOVA
3.35 York (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win ILARAAB
BET 3.75pts win GLOBAL STORM
BET 2.5pts win TRIBAL CRAFT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
