DAQMAN FINDS THE BIG ODDS BIG RACE: What’s the only horse that can follow up a three-year-old win? Which race has had recent winners at 50-1, 28-1, 25-1 and 20-1? Which race has three place lays? Where will you find the no-hope piggies in the middle?
AND THE JACKPOT OFFERS ARE ON BETDAQ: It’s all in Daqman’s column as the Saturday-king picks up huge jackpot-size offers on BETDAQ this morning at 64.0, 23.0, 19.5, 16.0, 14.0, 12.0, 11.0 and 10.5. Wow!
2.05 York (Queen Mother’s Cup) Crackentorp and Jaqueline Coward go for a hat-trick in this, having won it off today’s mark last season – beating Eagle Rock – and with 10lb lower in 2011.
His trainer, Tim Easterby, loves to win on home ground, and has Body And Soul in the big sprint later on, also looking primed for the target, but Crackenthorp may need rain.
There are two other Yorkshire horses with top-class lady riders, Sirvino and Cosmic Sun, and southern raider David Pipe has booked a leading Irish amateur for War Singer, whose form also suggests that rain would help.
War Singer looks the business but back-to-form Cosmic Sun is too big at 14.0, and I shall also have a stab in the dark at firm-ground American winner, Pulpitarian (64.0). That’s sure to make it rain!
2.20 Sandown The only three-year-old in this race a year ago won it! And there’s just one again this time around, Ashaadd, impressive over 7f on today’s course.
Ryan Moore says he’s got ‘a pretty tough task’ but, then, so have horses aged six to nine (half a dozen of them), surely too slow for a fast mile at Sandown, unless the going softens up with rain.
Danchai stepped up to this grade well at Newmarket and is unexposed. Roserrow is also lightly raced and has improved since failing at this level a year ago.
George Guru is consistent but that’s cost him the vital few pounds between a place and a win. Trader Jack drops back in trip, and the faster pace should enable him to settle better, but he has been known to miss the break and that could be curtains on fast ground.
2.40 York (ladbrokes.com Stakes) Four of the last five winners have been weighted 9st 11lb to 10st., but none in the decade has been older than six.
Westwiththenight will be suited by the wide drawn, as he likes a rear view of the field before challenging, but a rise of 11lb and two grades to this level caught him out on the last day.
Lord Aeryn holds Suits Me and Ginger Jack but, like stablemate Brae Hill, is not certain to get the trip, so that’s two more likely to drop out early on.
Clayton has been thereabouts at this level but hasn’t won since his debut maiden, which is always a bad sign.
Silvery Moon’s last run was excused on medical grounds; Fluidity and Swiftly Done need rain; so I’m just wondering if the unexposed Fort Belvedere (William Buick booked and 12.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) can take them on from the front and get home.
2.55 Sandown Only two fillies have won in eight years – one with, one without, a penalty – suggesting that we pick from the top five.
But balancing that out is the stalls stat: of the eight, three came from stall 7, one from 8 and one from 9. And that’s where the bottom three fillies are!
Too many imponderables (and ponderables) for me. But, with Smoothtalkinrascal out, Morawij for Roger Varian is hot and his jockey, Ryan Moore seemed most worried about the non-runner!
Since I’m big on Varian’s Ashaadd in the previous race at Sandown, and Morawij is a short price, I’ll use him as my stakes saver, on the grounds that at least one of Roger’s two jollies will score.
3.15 York Hughsie says he’s going to York for Baltic Knight (they are 3-3 together), though Lady’s First, Stipulate, Questioning and Sir Patrick Moore have all won or been placed in the pattern.
The BETDAQ market is wide open at 4.8 the field in a big-value orange totaling only 105%, so we’ll have a go on a day when finding a nap is like panning for gold in sand.
3.35 Musselburgh (Scottish Sprint Cup) Winners at massive odds: 50-1, 28-1, 25-1 and 20-1 in the last seven years. Yet the stats say the race is not that hard to solve.
Seven of the nine winners came from stalls 10 to 17, five of them being drawn 15, 16 and 17.
Starters from the three lowest stalls always fail to reach the frame, making Kingsgate Choice, Long Awaited and Bajan Tryst strong candidates for place lays.
Cheviot (23.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and Barnet Fair (10.5) should go close if the ground remains firm, and eyepieces may lift Confessional’s game: 19.5 was big.
3.50 York (Macmillan Charity Sprint) Omg, not another big-field sprint! That’s texting language to show that I keep up. It’s short for ‘what chance has the poor punter got, with cavalry-charges like these?’
Even those most hardened against stats, will be trying to use them to find an edge. First of all, winning weights suggest that the top seven in the handicap will find it tough, if not impossible, to take the pot.
And, second of all, results by draw give us six out of nine winners from stalls 1 to 5, and three from 15, 16 and 18. The 10 piggies in the middle seemingly have no chance.
Similar outcomes occurred at York yesterday: the 5f sprint had traps 19 and 18 first and third, and the 6f ‘seller’ had 4 beating 2 from 3. The middle stalls again hit the bacon-slicer, in both races.
Adding the weights and stalls stats together, we are left choosing from Odooj (stall 1, blinkered for the first time), Heaven’s Guest (3), Hairy Rocket (4), Lewisham (15), Barracuda Boy (16), No Jet Lag (17, first-time hood), Rivellino (18), Vincenti (19) and Mary’s Daughter (20).
What we now need is a touch of class, a trainer in form, and a liking for firmish ground. Straight into the swill bucket, unless it rains muchly, are Heaven’s Guest and Vincenti (both won only on soft) and Hairy Rocket (ditto, and a Pivotal to boot).
Lewisham has been seen only in low-grade races, while Rivellino’s form is AW only, which leaves us fancying Odooj (holds Mary’s Daughter).
Odooj is lightly raced, is dropping down from the pattern, and is from the in-form William Haggas’ yard, which has had a terrific 24 horses in the frame from its last 26 starters, seven of them winners.
Barracuda Boy is well held by Body And Soul, not badly drawn in 14, and looking primed for this, after a May reappearance run, for local trainer, Tim Easterby, who won this race back to back in 2002-3.
The now-hooded 7f winner No Jet Lag will enjoy the strong pace and goes in the van. So no jet over 6f, but no lag either.
With eight horses on offer in the orange between 10.5 and 14.5 on BETDAQ, we know what we’re up against it but, in the belief that we’ve cut out the fat, our prime cuts at the race are Body And Soul (11.0) and Odooj (16.0).
We’ll ‘leave a pound’ on No Jet Lag but his 41.0 this morning is a peculiar price, normally to be regarded as damning but he’s a class-2 animal targeting the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win WAR SINGER, 2.3pts win COSMIC SUN, and 0.4pts win and place PULPITARIAN (2.05 York).
BET 6.3pts win ASHAADD and 5pts win DANCHAI (2.20 Sandown) (2.20 Sandown), plus 6pts win (stakes saver) MORAWIJ (2.55 Sandown)
BET 2.7pts win FORT BELVEDERE (2.40 York)
BET 8pts win (nap) BALTIC KNIGHT (3.15 York)
BET 3pts win BARNET FAIR, 1.6pts win CONFESSIONAL and 1.3pts win CHEVIOT (3.35 Musselburgh)
BET 3pts win BODY AND SOUL, 2pts win ODOOJ and 0.75pts win and place NO JET LAG (3.50 York)
BET 3.5pts win VALMINA and 3.3pts win ANNE’S ROCKET (5.15 Bath)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: A better day, though tricky sprints, with singles all staked to win 30 points.
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