THIS 20-1 CRACKER IS PROFITABLE: Daqman yesterday continued his five-day run of big-odds winners right through Punchestown to the Classics meeting at Newmarket. His latest big-hitter was appropriately Profitable (WON 20-1). His 16 wins in the five days have included:
WON 20-1 Profitable
WON 16-1 Elusive Ivy, (from BETDAQ 30)
WON 16-1 Maio Chinn Tire
WON 10-1 One Track Mind (BETDAQ 12.5)
WON 9-1 God’s Own (BETDAQ 14.0)
100% LAYS ON THREE FAVOURITES: During the five days he has opposed three losing favourites, giving him three lays up out of three and a total of 16 out of the last 17. Yesterday’s was Jack Hobbs (pulled up 8-13), losing favourite number 10 in the WHOLE sequence of 17.
GOLD GAMBLE TODAY: Now read on for Daqman’s 1,000 Guineas one two. A triple-value Pot-Of-Gold Bet, and a nap in the Dahlia Stakes. Current score: Daqman 22, Pricewise 8. With his main Guineas bet a French filly at 32.0, here’s a word from the layers: May Day, May Day, m’aidez!
BALLYDOYLE BLUE AFTER ONE FLOP..
Should have listened-1 Air Force Blue failed to top my ABC guide to the 2,000 Guineas because he was by a sprinters’ sire with a low stallion stamina index. It proved to be a warning worth taking.
Should have listened-2 Ultra actually topped the list but the Lagardere winner didn’t run, leaving the third horse home at Longchamp that day, Galileo Gold, to take the prize.
Should have listened-3 Hugo Palmer had warned that Galileo Gold’s lead horse, Strong Steps, had improved as he’d set the pace for the then Classic contender. I warned that a good run in the opening race by Strong Steps (beaten about a length) would highlight the stable’s Gold hopes.
..NOW A WARNING ABOUT THE 1,000
Should we listen now? It’s worth remembering that Aidan O’Brien doesn’t often get his fillies ready early. So it was that both Qualify and Tapestry flopped in their 1,000 Guneas.
Qualify was last of 13 before winning the Epsom Oaks. Tapestry was last of 17 in the opening Classic before running second in the Irish Oaks.
The warning is hammered home by Aidan’s having won the 1,000 twice only, one of them – Homecoming Queen – totally unexpected at 25-1. Another O’Brien filly, Maybe was 13-8 favourite that day.
Stallion stamina index? Blue Bayou and Mix And Mionhgle are the fillies in today’s Classic field who fall well short on breeding.
Is it also against Alice Springs, Ballydoyle, Midweek and Minding in that they have an SSI much higher than nine of the last 10 winners in the decade.
MAYBE MIDWEEK’S THE NE PLUS ULTRA
3.40 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas) I have suggested that the first Classic result yesterday boosts Ultra, and the French crop may well have more than one star. We’re already on Midweek for today’s fillies’ Classic.
I hear that Pricewise has tipped the filly today at 25-1 with a sportsbook-maker called Betfair.
This column made a fair exchange for Midweek at 32.0 on BETDAQ the day after she ran an impressive trial in the Prix Imprudence. ABC GUIDE:
A Winner over 7f or 1m
B Won/placed in trial or top 2yo race
C Won at least twice including Listed/Group
D Has raced this season
E Ran at least twice as 2yo
F Trained Criquette Head-Maarek (4 winners)
ABCDE Alice Springs
Could this be another Homecoming Queen, the outsider which won this race for Aidan O’Brien in 2012?
She was about the same distance behind Minding (Moyglare) and Lumiere (Cheveley Park) last season, and was not knocked about when (as have 7 out of 10 winners of the 1,000) she had a prep run for this in the Leopardstown trial, won by Jet Setting. She’s 21.0 on BETDAQ as I write, but Ryan Moore’s on Minding.
ABCDE Jet Setting
Adrian Keatley, better known for his raids on Scotland (three out of five at Ayr’s opening Flat meeting) took the Leopardstown trial with this Cork maiden winner and marked her down for the Germain Guineas.
She has continued to improve at home since then and, though 38.0, has the benefit of two (winning races) this year but needs rain, more than the ‘drizzle’ that is forecast.
ABCDE Nathra
She was 2-2 and supplemented to take on Minding in the Fillies’ Mile and finished four-and-a-half lengths adrift in second.
But she advertised the form – and her improvement – when she needed only one reminder with the whip to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes 19 days ago.
ABCE Ballydoyle
I was ready to back this one as the ‘O’Brien second string that surprises the favourite.’ She beat Minding on firm ground in August but Minding had her revenge on yielding in the Moyglare in September.
And Ballydoyle has the same black marks against her that Air Force Blue had yesterday: not had a run; wearing a first-time tongue-tie. Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice.
ABCE Minding
Had Ballydoyle and Alice Springs beaten off in the Moyglare and trounced Nathra in the Fillies’ Mile, so wins this easily. That is, if the race were run last October.
But, as we’ve seen with O’Brien fillies in this before now, she may not be as ‘ready to start’ as the trainer thinks. The stable’s current form consists of one or two handicap and maidens winners and yesterday’s hot 2,000 favourite flopped like a beached whale.
ABCE Turret Rocks
Gentleman Jim Bolger is on a lowly 6% winners (4-70), missing strike so badly he had a recent run of 10 placed from 13 without winning.
Turret Rocks was runner-up to Ballydoyle in the fillies’ Criterium at Longchamp and smacks more of an Oaks filly than for today’s test.
ABDF Midweek
This Motivator filly out of a dam related to Oaks winner Reams Of Verse was trialled in the Imprudence (7f) from the front, and I expect her to be in the van all the way here.
Trainer by the former Criquette Head, famous for dual Arc winner Treve, and who has won this English 1,000 four times. She doesn’t bother to catch the boat for nthis unless she has big fish to fry.
ABDE Robanne
Stayed on well, third to Nathra in the Nell Gwyn and so lightly raced, she can be expected to improve.
ACDE Epsom Icon
Another to have had an outing, but well behind Nathra, Robanne and Mix And Mingle. Relatives are of little account.
ACE Blue Bayou
Behind Minding, Ballydoyle and Alice Spring in the Moyglare and, with the stable out of form (0-11 turf), is hardly likely to close them down
ACE Fireglow
A tough typical Mark Johnston sort but, though a Teofilo, was only Listed level as a juvenile, and is bred for longer trips than this.
ADE Mix And Mingle
Nursery type as a two-year-old but has progressed over the winter and not disgraced behind Nathra and Robanne in the Nell Gwyn. Needs a sound surface and stable 0-10 on turf.
AD Aljaazi
One for your notebook: very lightly raced, fourth in the Fred Darling (transferred to Chelmsford) and will do better in time.
AE Sharja Queen
A Pivotal, so loved the soft-heavy when she won at the backend, after six-lentyhs second to Lumiere in her very first race at Newmarket, when trained Luca Cumani.
BCE Illuminate
Three sprints in a row as a juvenile, then beaten only half a length by Lumiere in the Cheveley Park and about two lengths behind Alice Springs when they were second and sixth in the Breeders Cup Mile Fillies, when the trip and the long season found her out.
BCD Lumiere
The Lowther runner-up turned the tables on the winner in the Cheveley park (Illuminate second, Alice Spoings fourth).
Half-sister to a 1m 4f winner, she has a high cruising speed, and has been quietly backed into second spot in the market behind Minding. Very highly regarded.
VERDICT: 1-2 LUMIERE AND MIDWEEK: No one of their right Minding could take the short price about the favourite with the stable’s record in this race, and with the demise first time out of Air Force Blue in the colts’ classic yesterday.
It’s one of those lays (2.48 in the BETDAQ green) we can stomach if she wins because we’ll be right more often than not.
With the bad winter holding fillies back, and the seven-out-of-10 winning record in this race of those who have prepped in their second season, Midweek and Nathra, effective in the two top trials, must surely get involved.
But I’m impressed with the form of, and the reports concerning, Lumiere. That she could show such speed as a juvenile, be so lightly raced as not to leave her form behind in her first season, yet be so bred that the Oaks could be within her compass.
I can see one of the O’Brien fillies leading Lumiere and Midweek and taking lengths out of the field as happened yesterday.
SNOANO A POT-OF-GOLD BONUS BET
1.50 Newmarket Winning stalls in the last four years – 10, 14, 11, 10 – reveal how this race is won, and it’s only to four and five year olds, with a big weight carried only once in the decade.
As with Strong Steps for Galileo Gold, Watersmeet would be a guide to the same stable’s Lumiere in the Guineas, but he likes to ‘do a Johnston’ and make all.
Stall 2 would be ideal if it wasn’t for another pace horse, Oceanographer, in gate 4, making for an intriguing contest.
But they could be vulnerable to a hold-up horse, Snoano, classy enough to run in the Racing Post Trophy and ran well at this level at Thirsk on the last day.
New trainer Tim Easterby has just struck some form and the clincher is the booking of Paul Hanagan. A tasty 8.6 in a 102% orange. Juicy with value.
In my view, Snoano should be around 5.0 here, which would cost me 7.5 points to win 30.
But I’ll go for triple value in a pot-of-gold bet. Value one is the 102% orange; value two is that the horse should be 5.0. Value three is the bonus I will gain by staking at the level required to win 30 if the horse really was 5.0.
FRANKIE TO COME OUT ON TOP AGAIN
2.25 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) If at first you don’t succeed, give up. I couldn’t get David Elsworth right if I asked him for the time!
And I did used to ask him, once upon a day. On the gallops at Whitsbury, I would say: ‘I like the look of that one, David.’ Answer: ‘Yes; he could be all right.’ Reassemble the words: granny his own tell wouldn’t!
So, Arabian Queen, the filly who beat Golden Horn in the York International, ‘could be all right,’ particularly as she won first time last season.
But this is a drop back in trip and the one that beat her over a mile on the July Course last summer, Amazing Maria is in opposition again, though four-year-olds are six in a row in this, and Maria took her time getting going last term.
Maybe the answer is Usherette, a rare visitor for Andre Fabre these days, but four lengths off Amazing Maria at Deauville at the backend, so this looks like a fishing trip.
Going back to Arabian Queen, I think Jazzi Top might have finished in front of her at Goodwood with clear run. She won first time out and finished her season only a head off winning the Opera at the Arc meeting.
With Frankie Dettori in such flying form, I think she is a worthy favourite at a trip which suits her best. No value at 2.88? Of course there is; the orange is only 102% again!
DAQMAN’S BETS (1,000 Guineas)
* ANTE-POST TON-UP BET (to win 100): 3.2pts win MIDWEEK at 32.0.
* TODAY: 4.5pts place (to win 20) MIDWEEK
* LAY to lose 10pts MINDING
* BET (to win 30) 4.8pts win LUMIERE.
DAQMAN’S NAP AND POT OF GOLD BET (to win 30)
POT-OF-GOLD BET: 7.5pts win SNOANO at 8.6 (1.50 Newmarket)
NAP: 10.5pts win (nap) JAZZI TOP (2.35 Newmarket)
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