6-1 CHOIR KEEPS DAQMAN FANS SINGING: Gospel Choir (WON 6-1) is the right material for Sir Michael Stoute’s expertise, said Daqman yesterday. He also tipped Bally Longford (2nd 16-1) win and place at Punchestown at 21.0 on BETDAQ.
15 WINNING NAPS OUT OF 19: His naps tally is now 15 out of 19 in 20 days (one non-runner, eight winning bankers in a row) for 444 points profit, and his feature-race lead over Pricewise is 25-6 in the current season (64-18 overall).
HERE’S YOUR 1,000 GUINEAS ABC CHECK:
A: 9 out of 10 had won in the Pattern
B: 9 out of 10 by a Group-1 sire (not Galileo)
C: Had won at least two races (9 out of 10) and ran at least three times (9 out of 10)
D: Previously won at Newmarket (7 out of 10)
X: BLACK MARK: sire’s stamina index below 9.0
ALLEZ FRANCE! IT’S ANOTHER ‘TRIAL’ TWIST..
Trial gallops and trial races used to be different things. But we saw in yesterday’s 2,000 Guineas a turnaround of 10lb or more, as Night Of Thunder avenged his Greenham defeat by Kingman.
Now Andre Fabre is openly saying of Miss France’s defeat in the Prix Imprudence ‘it was only a trial,’ meaning her run was a racecourse prep.
She came over – seeking better ground – for the Oh So Sharp Stakes last year, beating Lightning Thunder a head but was not seen in public again.
The runner-up was fourth to the subsequent Fred Darling runner-up but the Oh So Sharp itself is a poor Classic guide.
Aiden O’Brien’s pair, Bracelet and Tapestry, are bred – by Montjeu and Galileo – for further; if they have the speed for this, they would be top fillies, indeed.
In their favour is that today’s race contains (my X factor) a lot of stamina doubts, and this morning’s markets are opposing good fillies like Princess Noor and Majeyda because of the ground.
A negative for Ballydoyle is that the most knowledgeable bookmakers, Ladbrokes, are laying them at prices bigger than most.
Ihtimal is 11.0 on BETDAQ, only 8-1 with Ladbrokes but it would be surprising to see a Guineas winner just back from campaigning at Meydan.
All in all, Miss France looks ‘the one most likely to’, clearly aimed at peak performance on the day, tipped for another trial turnaround (with Imprudence runner-up Vorda).
For a heady outsider, the big girl Lamar, beaten in the Nell Gwyn but desperately needing the run, is 172.0 on the Daq.
See what you think in this rundown of stats and form, which makes up my ABC Guide, runner by runner, but bear in mind the firm ground:
ABCD Majeyda
The May Hill runner-up and a Newmarket Listed winner on the soft, returned there on a sounder surface to finish third behind Sandiva in the Nell Gwyn last month.
Theoretically, she is the Godolphin second string to Ihtimal but Night Of Thunder was the Hannon ‘third string’!
ABCD Miss France
Winner of the Oh So Sharp Stakes on firm at Newmarket in September, disappointed in the Prix Imprudence at ‘Maisons’ last month, but the race was slowly run and trainer Fabre was happy that it was ‘only a trial.’
ABCDX Ihtimal
Supposed number one for Godolphin, and I’m surprised that his sire has only an 8.1f average when he’s got plenty of stayers, such as French Derby winner Lope de Vega. Beat Majeyda in the May Hill and won the UAE 1,000 Guineas in February.
ABCDX Sandiva
Exposed after five runs last season but trainer Fahey always had faith she’d do better, and duly won the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket (7f) in April from Euro Charline, Majeyda and Lamar.
ABCDX Vorda
Won the Cheveley Park Stakes (6f at HQ), and started the new season well, short-neck runner-up in the leading French fillies’ trial, the Prix Imprudence but race-readers said she hadn’t grown much over the winter.
ABC Bracelet
Montjeu filly who burst on the scene for Ballydoyle by the winning Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial (soft-heavy), though bred for further. Well behind Sandiva on good to firm last season but that was on her debut.
ABCX Joyeuse
Albany Stakes third at Royal Ascot in hood but only sixth of seven behind Vorda in the Cheveley Park, and held up a long way back when third in the Fred Darling trial at Newbury last month, with the hood refitted.
ABCX Princess Noor
Second only to Vorda in the Cheveley Park after winning the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot. Johnny Murtagh rode her at Newmarket, was ‘very impressed’ and marked her down as a Guineas filly.
AC Tapestry
Joseph O’Brien’s pick of the Ballydoyle duo, based presumably on her being beaten only about a length by Rizeena in the Moyglare. But by Galileo, so may do better in the Oaks.
ACDX Lucky Kristale
Behind in the Albany but slammed Rizeena in a Group 2 at the July Meeting and followed up in the Lowther Stakes at York. Form and breeding shouts 7f.
ACX Rizeena
Won the Sandown National Stakes and the Queen Mary at Rpyal Ascot before beating Tapestry at The Curragh and surprisingly demoted a couple of pounds when less than a length off the winner of the Fillies’ Mile, with Ihtimal third. Not far behind my best, says Clive Brittain.
BC Euro Charline
Split Sandiva and Majeyda when well backed for the Nell Gwyn. Can be temperamental.
BCX Lightning Thunder
Beaten a head by Miss France in the Oh So Sharp Stakes (7f) but odds-on flop in the Rockfel. Surely not a Guineas double with Night Of Thunder? Lightning can’t strike twice..
BD Lamar
A 66-1 shot when fourth to Sandiva in the Nell Gwyn after being hampered. A big filly by Cape Cross, she would have needed the race.
ALSO: B Betimes New Approach filly, BX Manderley Fred Darling fifth.
INTEGRAL TIPPED FOR NINTH BANKER IN A ROW
2.05 Newmarket The racecourse is the only place Van Percy can score right now. Though that was on AW, it proves his fitness and he’s won on firm ground.
Amralah looked the better horse when they met at HQ last autumn but Mick Channon has only a 6% strike rate since the start of the Flat (turf) and Amralah has needed a run in each of two seasons racing.
Van Percy beat Elhaame in October after that one had finished in front of Café Society at Ascot, when trying today’s trip for the first time.
We are not sure that Urban Dance, Miss Marjurie and Bancmuanaheireann will get this 12f, with Asbaab and Salutation expected to take them along at a decent clip.
Mighty Yar is favourite this morning, an unexposed Teofilo grey, racing last year as though 1m 4f is what’s required. Lady Cecil has had only one first prize this year (1-11) on turf but has a 50% strike rate on AW.
Amralah and Mighty Yar are the ones with the big Group-race entries, Ray Ward the dark horse said to have come on the proverbial ton over the winter.
But the BETDAQ market drifters this morning were Elhaame and Ray Ward, with Amralah easy to back.
Café Society has been gelded but used to get an awful long way behind in his races, so I will dutch Mighty Yar and Van Percy at 7.4 and 8.4 respectively.
2.40 Newmarket Whenever Stoute knight opens his stable door big time, you can expect a flow of winners and, where Gospel Choir stormed away from Trading Leather yesterday (sorry; should have laid him), Integral can follow today.
She leapt forward 27lb in the late summer and autumn last year, ultimately running 1,000 Guineas winner, Sky Lantern, to a length in the Sun Chariot Stakes.
Like Gospel Choir, her breeding shouts improvement as she gets older and, again as with Gospel Choir, Sir Michael is your man for the job.
The French send over their 1,000 runner-up Esoterique, who had the Fabre aisle seat alongside Miss France but – Treve apart – their three-year-old fillies were not as good as ours.
Zurigha has run and won but I doubt her AW Listed is up to Integral’s standard; in fact, the official handicapper says she’s only 6lb behind and she could improve.
But, if ‘improvement’ is the name of the game then we’ve seen it from Integral in spades. She can land my ninth consecutive banker.
3.10 Newmarket BETDAQ offers add up to a total percentage per race of 104, 103, 108, 104 in the first four on the card, as I write.
Compare, if you will, with Total SPs on the same course yesterday, always in double figures and up to 124 and 128%. So stick with the punter-friendly exchange.
Sprinters take turns to win, according to the ground and a few pounds difference in weight. Age (only four and five year olds win this) and class are major factors.
Only Baddilini, Ninjago, Secretinthepark, Tamayuz Star and Zanetto are up to this, by those tokens. Ninjago (12.0 on BETDAQ) has form, or collateral form, with them all, and has won first time for the last two seasons.
Roger Charlton has just hit form (current figures 1110121) and Secondo (8.0 for another dutching op), who also won first time last season, improved later on and, lightly raced, can continue on the upgrade.
Zanetto is close to Ninjago on form and likes Newmarket so I will have a saver but he’s drawn high and low numbers were winning everything up to a mile yesterday.
Zanetto’s trainer, Andrew Balding, has gone off the boil a bit. His three recent winners have all been favourite but, with Pricewise on Zanetto, money from the lemmings means that you can’t adequately judge whether a Zanetto plunge has an informed basis.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker, which was 2.2 this morning but takes its chance at SP. Savers are staked only to save the outlay on the main bets)
BET 3pts win MIGHTY YAR and 2.7pts win VAN PERCY (2.05 Newmarket)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) INTEGRAL (2.40 Newmarket)
BET 2.8pts win SECONDO, and 1.8pts win and place NINJAGO plus 1.2pts win (stakes saver) ZANETTO (3.10 Newmarket)
BET 3.7pts win MISS FRANCE, and 0.1pts win and place LAMAR (3.50 Newmarket)
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