GUINEAS-DAY BANKER AND 26-1 TREBLE: Daqman was in victory mode on 2,000 Guineas day with a banker bet on the winner, which was part of three winning doubles and a 26-1 plus treble, and would be the first of two Classic successes on the day:
WON 6-1 AJMAN PRINCESS
WON 6-4 CHURCHILL (Guineas banker and nap)
WON 4-7 SEVENTH HEAVEN
THEN DAQMAN LANDS A DREAM DERBY: Ajman Princess and Churchill, his 10th banker up from 14, sent him 14-5 clear of Pricewise of the Racing Post in his value challenge. But the day was not done. He stepped up to 15-5, and went some 20 points ahead to a level stake, by naming the winner of the Kentucky Derby.
WON 47-10 Always Dreaming (Kentucky Derby)
VERDICT ON FIRST FILLIES’ CLASSIC: Today Daqman argues the negative and positive points to solve the 1,000 Guineas puzzle (ABC in Friday archive).
CHURCHILL PUNTERS SWEATING
Joint worst of the decade. After all the ballyhoo ‘home is the hero’ headlines, the Racing Post declares a modest rating – in their own strange poundage – for Churchill after his Guineas ‘steal’. I have to agree.
His heavy sweating-up frightened off many hitherto loyal punters. He then had the run of the race (all credit to Ryan Moore), and staved off by only a length challenges in a slow-run race from two still-developing colts, Barney Roy and Al Wukair.
In my opinion, Churchill didn’t have a prep run because he would have left his Guineas behind on the racecourse.
No way can I back him for the Derby, and I would want to see whatever are his problems – mental or physical – seen to be cleared up before I consider him for the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Yesterday may go down as a great feat of training and jockeyship to get him first past the post. The first seven were covered by only four lengths at the line, another sign that we don’t have a champion.
Churchill won off their 121, says the Post, well short of the likes of Gleneagles (124), Dawn Approach (127) and Sea The Stars (124).. and, of course, ‘a stone’ behind Frankel (133).
WINTER OF LAYERS’ DISCONTENT
3.35 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas)
A sweaty Churchill landed the first leg. But it’s less of a sweat for Ballydoyle to complete the Guineas double with a blooming strong hand: Rhododendron, Hydrangea and Winter.
You still have to sift the positives and the negatives, and hope to find an edge, but I think two of those three O’Brien girls will lead them home at Newmarket this afternoon.
Negative Only one winner of this in the decade had more than six starts, and Hydrangea has been around so long she is exposed as a yardstick.
Her form and that of Rhododendron and Intricately are closely tied together (see ABC guide on Friday). From that, you’d normally delete the one among them with more than six starts (Hydrangea’s had eight) on the grounds that the others still have potential for improvement against her.
Positive It certainly looks likely from the way the race was run – and the market move for her since – that Winter will reverse the form of her head defeat by Hydrangea at Leopardstown in the Trial a month back, and she seems to be the emerging star.
Negative Intricately was a shock winner of the Moyglare but beatings by Rhododendron (before) and Hydrangea (after) that race suggest that it was a ‘funny’ result, best now overlooked.
Positive It was Rhododendron who emerged a good couple of lengths clear in the Fillies’ Mile and had the last laugh on the fillies’ juvenile season.
But, as I said at the time, they’d all been beating each other and something seemed sure to come along this Spring to run them down.
Negative Poet’s Vanity was said to badly need the run when third to Daban and Unforgetable Filly in the Nell Gwyn but Daban was eased down close home and, since it was only her second run, she also seems sure to find more.
Queen Kindly and Frankel filly Fair Eva need to improve an awful lot on form, since last year they were closely involved with Kilmah (a 50-1 shot today), Roly Poly (taken out by Aiden O’Brien) and Glitter Girl.
Queen Kindly and Glitter Girl finished down the field in the Fred Darling, won by Dabiyah, another to miss today’s Guineas.
VERDICT: Yesterday’s Guineas result by stall was 3, 5, 7, 4, and it will need another great ride from Ryan Moore on Rhododendron (from 9) or from Frankie Dettori (in the coffin-box one stall on Daban), so I go for the better-drawn improver, Winter, at 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
ORDER IN: 1 Winter, 2 Rhododendron, 3 Daban, 4 Fair Eva
NEZWAAH’S DAHLIA BOUQUET
2.20 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) I marked down Elbereth as an Early Bird but was a bit surprised she was earmarked for this Group 2.
She may be better than her globetrotting runs since winning the Nottingham Oaks last July, and we have 22.0 in the BETDAQ orange to justify a tickle.
It’s not a hard race to win, with Muffri’ha become something of a bridesmaid, and Somehow’s quick reappearance raising a question mark, while the French runners are likely to need rain
It suggests that Elbereth has an each-way chance and that 5.8 offer Nezwaah (goes well fresh) can take advantage and step up again on an excellent three-year-old career.
2.55 Newmarket No outright favourite has taken this in years but with winners’ SPs usually hovering around 10-1 and 12-1, up to 16-1 at most (five out of seven).
To say four and five year olds win is to deny seven of these, including Eastern Impact who won it in 2015.
Last year’s high-draw domination was matched by the Palace House result by draw yesterday when 12 beat 11, 14, 8 and 10.
Whatever you think of those stats, you can’t deny that the grey 8.6 offer Gunmetal (in gate 8) is fit from a fine start over CD last month, has won on the ground and, as a 7f winner, would benefit from the likely fast pace.
Intisaab (12.0 on BETDAQ) also qualifies as a 7f winner who beat several of these in the Coral Sprint at York and earlier at Ripon. Drawn 15
It remains to be seen whether Hakam can translate his AW form to turf. On his last turf start, he was slow away, and the same thing happened on the last day at Lingfield. You really need to hit the traps running at Newmarket.
2.45 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial) I shall not be betting in the Irish trials but keeping a watching brief. Winners of this, Now Or Never (2016) and Just Pretending (2013), went on to place in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
3.20 Leopardstown (Derby Trial) Irish Derby and Arc de Triomphe hero Dylan Thomas (2006) was the best winner of this in a decade which also threw up Fame And Glory (Irish Derby, too) and Fascinating Rock (Champion Stakes later on in his career)
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win NEZWAAH, and 1pt win and place ELBERETH (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 2.6pts win GUNMETAL, and 1.8pts win and place INTISAAB (2.55 Newmarket)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5pts win and place (nap) WINTER, and 7pts win (stakes saver) RHODODENDRON (3.35 Newmarket)
EARLY BIRD: Elbereth (2.20 Newmarket)
