DAQMAN FLARE LANDS 60 POINTS FROM 16-1 GUINEAS WINNER: The three Irish horses dicing in the markets for favourite yesterday – Wembley, Battleground and Thunder Moon – finished 11th, 13th and 14th in a huge 2,000 Guineas upset. Ireland still won it with a power drive by 54-year-old Kevin Manning on Poetic Flare for Jim Bolger (aged 79). That was Daqman’s outsider for 60 points as a bull’s-eye bet, poetic justice after places in the afternoon at 9-4, 11-2 (hampered) and 12-1.
WON 16-1 POETIC FLARE (from 18.5 on BETDAQ), 2,000 Guineas)
Standings
DAQMAN 13, PRICEWISE 6
LAYS LOGIC 5-6 (83%)
NAPS 8-16 (50%)
SUPERNAPS 4-5 (80%)
NOW A 20.0 BETDAQ OUTSIDER FOR THE FIRST FILLIES’ CLASSIC: Daqman has a 20.0 win-and-place outsider, plus a straight-win bet, for the 1,000 Guineas today. His nap is at Salisbury. Headlines:
FIRM GROUND MAKING A STATEMENT
CITY BOWL ANOTHER BALDING GIFT
GOSDEN IS YOUR GUARDIAN ANGEL
FIRM GROUND MAKING A STATEMENT
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas) PREVIEW, April 19: Lays Logic to oppose the 1,000 Guineas favourite: ‘she’s a present for the layers’.
No Sunday lie-in today but an early lay! The 7-4 and 2-1 favourite, Santa Barbara just has to be opposed. She must surely ease in the market after doing all the talking based largely on a remark by her trainer.
It may well be true that ‘nothing can live with her at home’ (quote unquote, Aidan Patrick O’Brien) but none at home has competed with her over a mile at racing speed in a Classic.
Even if they had, and she had thrashed the Ballydoyle boys in a full dress rehearsal, what’s that worth when the colts were between seven and 20 lengths behind the 2,000 winner yesterday .
Barbara has raced only once and has no official rating and, on stable Classic form yesterday, is no gift-bearing Santa for the punters!
With the exception of Minding, O’Brien’s 1,000 Guineas winners in the decade have been easy to back at 4-1, 7-1, 9-1, 14-1 and 25-1.
Their secret was experience. They had learned a lot about racing well before the Guineas: Homecoming Queen ran 11 times at two; Hermosa and Love each seven times; Minding five, Virginia Waters four and Winter three.
Of the O’Brien jockeys, Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori, left trailing on Wembley and Battleground on the firm ground yesterday, Dettori now seems to have the better chance today as he lines up on Mother Earth, with Moore on the ‘talking horse’ Santa Barbara.
But, unless the showers are heavy and sustained, punters will be searching for the filly equivalent of Poetic Flare who has made the winter improvement and can eat up the fast ground. ABC form check:
Alcohol Free has won on good ground already this year but only just held on in the Fred Darling (7f).
A daughter of No Nay Never, who has sired Arizona, Ten Sovereigns and Wichita to be ace at 6-7 furlongs.
Mother Earth has the experience and the provenance: third in the Fillies Mile and second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Statement ran second to Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling, closing at the line. By a French Derby winner, Lawman, out of the daughter of a French Guineas and Derby winner, Lope De Vega.
Sacred/Saffron Beach Sacred comfortably took the Nell Gwyn Stakes from Saffron Beach, who won the Oh So Sharp Stakes as a two-year-old.
Sacred is a 7f filly who has a chance of lasting the trip today because of the ground. Saffron Beach hasn’t got the smart pedigree but should relish the mile.
Thunder Beauty Finished close up in the Moyglare (7f) on good ground at the Curragh and is bred to get the Oaks trip! May be short on pace but will be running on and the BETDAQ offers are generous for a win and place.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE Daqman 1-2-3: Statement 9.8 to win from Thunder Beauty 20.0 and Mother Earth 11.0.
CITY BOWL ANOTHER BALDING GIFT
⭕ 2.05 Salisbury (City Bowl) Andrew Balding landed a treble yesterday and Opera Gift looks the type to improve this year after being gelded.
Prince Alex won five handicaps in a row for three different jockeys. This is his first time ridden by Hector Crouch, who has a near-40% strike rate for Ralph Beckett.
The Frankel colt Boss Power is another gelded over the winter, winning at Wolverhampton but turned over at odds on the last day; has to give weight all round, including 12lb to Ispahan, a third newly gelded.
BETDAQ value 3.0 Opera Gift
GOSDEN IS YOUR GUARDIAN ANGEL
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) You can follow the twists and turns of filly form but the winner is likely to have to show improvement and that means coming from the stables of Sir Michael Stoute or John (and Thady) Gosden.
Stoute has won this six times and, when third on firm at Salisbury last August, the Nassau Stakes fourth Queen Power was giving weight to the subsequent Yorkshire Oaks runner-up, Alpinista.
Lavender’s Blue, who had finished fifth in the Nassau, beat Fooraat on the Kempton AW in April but had been well held by the Gosden grey filly Indie Angel in a Lingfield Listed last October.
Queen Power, too often the bridesmaid, was runner-up in the Dahlia last June, soundly beaten by Gosden’s Terebellum before that one was pipped by a head in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
BETDAQ value 11.0 Indie Angel
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Salisbury (win 10, nap)
BET 5pts win OPERA GIFT
3.00 Newmarket (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5pts win and place INDIE ANGEL
3.15 Hamilton (win 10)
BET 2pts win SIGNIFICANTLY
3.40 Newmarket (win 50 and place win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.5pts win STATEMENT
BULL-S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win and place THUNDER BEAUTY
Stakes saver BET 1pt win MOTHER EARTH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
