FIRST ‘HIDDEN HORSE’ WINS 5-1: After tipping ‘disguised’ horses that won at 16-1, 10-1 and 9-1, Daqman decided to launch Hidden Horses as a value bet in its own right yesterday, and was rewarded first time with an easy success for Portage (WON 5-1 from 8.0 on BETDAQ) on a day of 52 points profit.
ONE-TWO PRICEWISE THUMPING: There was more big value on BETDAQ, as Daqman hit Pricewise for the old one-two in the York Dash, naming winner and second for win and place success, going 66-10 up, including a lay (207-83 overall). His one-two was:
WON 11-2 Tanzeel (from BETDAQ 8.2)
2nd 10-1 Shore Step (from 15.5)
NOW IT’S 13 LAYS UP OUT OF 14: Daqman’s lay was a place lay on the morning-paper favourite, Rene Mathis, beaten into eighth as a big drifter out to 14-1 in the International Stakes at Ascot. It was successful lay number 13 from the last 14.
GOODWOOD WEEK: NEW TARGETS: Daqman today looks at new targets for his feature-race bets in a week which sees two major meetings, Goodwood and Galway, in England and Ireland.
PRICEWISE CHALLENGE A POINTED WALKOVER
I got the 123 yesterday. No, not the first three in the King George, but 123 wins ahead of Pricewise of the Racing Post. Plus the lay equals 124.
At first my challenge was exciting, then it was rewarding. Lately, it’s become a landslide. Finally, pretty much a bore. So much so that, when I did the tally yesterday, I forgot I’d beaten him 2-0 last Sunday.
So thumping him 3-0 yesterday actually took me to 207 successful bets in races he has nominated against the 83 he has scored in them. This is since the start of the 2013-14 jumps season.
I need just four more wins to pass my best total of 69 on the Flat. That particular season (2014), Pricewise hit back with 47.
This season, he’s throwing the ‘race’ away with just 10 successes, hardly punching at all, just dummies like yesterday’s unplaced trio.
These tips are all winners for ‘the other side,’ the bookmakers, nothing better than bait laid for lemming punters.
I hope Pricewise reads this and puts some beef into his betting burgers, and that Channel-4 stops adding its limp lettuce-leaves of routine praise. At least, the biggest burger of them all, Big Mac, used to know something about value!
From now on I shall relate the Daqman v Pricewise walkover to my own targets in those feature races: if the challenge has become pointless, let’s make it worthwhile again with some points targets of our own.
100 WINS:
I want to land 100 wins in total by the end of the season – that means 34 more than my current 66 – sticking to the Pricewise nominated races.
200 POINTS:
I want to make 200 points profit to my recommended stakes in those particular races from now until the end of the season. I shall show that the BETDAQ value returns in those races are just as good as the odd outlandish odds that Pricewise flags up from a run-for-cover bookie.
300 TARGET:
I also want to make 300 points by the end of the season at 10pts win on each of my Hidden Horses, counting only from yesterday’s 5-1 (SP) starter. I shall be making comparison with BETDAQ offers there, too, which yesterday gave me 7-1 about that winner.
LAY DOWN:
The Pricewise challenge that became a Daqman lay-down has also produced a string of successful lays. I’m currently on 13 out of 14, which has paid at least 120 points to 10-point level stakes.
1,000 POINTS:
Add them all together, and the pie-in-the-sky would be 1,000 points profit for Flat 2015. Together, let’s grab as big a slice of that as we can!
PUNTER IS RACING’S FORGOTTEN BENEFACTOR
Yes, I actually missed Big Mac yesterday. Probably because I hadn’t seen him for yonks; he’s a man you need a rest from.
As I’ve said above, he didn’t let the punter down on value, and yesterday would have fumed at the Channel-4 cameras after Speculative Bid ran riderless in the International Stakes, amid chaos as to the consequences for betting.
Surely, it’s simple, a basic tenet: if the horse doesn’t run, all bets are off: the horse is a non-runner by definition.
All would-be participants that fail to come out of the stalls, whether riderless or not, or any which are so tardy – left 20 lengths, say – as to have no chance, should be deemed non-runners.
Any horse more than once slow away, left at start, playing up in the stalls, dislodging rider, blah blah, should be disqualified from racing for a fixed period.
Without going into the details of yesterday’s race – I simply note from the Press the words ‘shambles’, ‘fiasco’, ‘confusion’ and ‘farce’ – we need a piece of machinery put into place on behalf of the punter; he is once again the forgotten benefactor of racing.
PAPIN: SOUMILLON STAR BOOKING FOR AJAYA
2.40 Maisons-Laffitte (Prix Robert Papin): England is two out of three in this, with Team Hannon going for back-to-back wins after Kool Kompany a year ago.
Kool Kompany had already won a Group 2, though down the field in the Coventry, but Gutaifan has to step up three grades from narrow victories at Salisbury and Chelmsford.
Areen (Kevin Ryan) ran second in the Windsor Castle Stakes but disappointed in the July Stakes. His stable is in good form right now, with 11 out of 15 placed.
Bolting, Italian front-runner Fly On The Night and North End are bred for today’s dash. Venecia Style and Yakaba are entered for the Cheveley Park.
I fancy Ajaya and Yakaba. Ajaya, representing William Haggas, with Christophe Soumillion’s booking a wise move. Ajaya didn’t get a clear run in the Norfolk Stakes but trotted up at Epsom on the last day.
Like Ajaya, Yakaba needs the rain to stay away. Though she is a Medicean filly, she is very fast, if inexperienced, and this is often a fillies race.
Rolly Polly, Never A Doubt, Much Faster, Divine Proportions, New Girlfriend, Boccassini, Natagora, Special Duty and Vorda have all won for the ‘girls’ this century, Natagora and Special Duty going on to win the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas.
BIRDMAN LOOKS BIG VALUE AT 8.4 ON BETDAQ
4.00 Pontefract: There’s just a few pounds between the official best and worst in this tightish Listed. The likes of Birdman and Let’s Go have to move up into the Pattern because they’ve blown their handicap marks.
Biggest sufferer to the system is ‘nearly horse’ Mondialiste, who lost his handicap chances through being second (in the Lincoln), and still has only a minor race in France on his CV.
Rain could come to the aid of previous winner Fire Ship and to Top Notch Tonto, who long ago moved into the Pattern. They have together won five Listed or Group 3.
Short Squeeze was the moral in a Windsor Listed, beaten less than a length, giving the allowances to a three-year-old.
Favourites have a zero record in eight seasons, but Let’s Go’s stable has won the race twice since 2010.
I’ll stick with the improvement shown by Birdman. I like him because he’s won in a small field and in a big handicap, so clearly can quicken up when required. And because he’s 8.4 on BETDAQ as I write.
4.30 Pontefract: Though still running green, Beardwood won a CD maiden from the impressive Ascot winner Dawn’s Early Light and 5.6 on BETDAQ early mouse looked nap value.
DAQMAN BETS (each one staked to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win YAKABA and 4pts win AJAYA (2.40 Maisons-Laffitte)
BET 2.7pts win BIRDMAN (4.00 Pontefract)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) BEARDWOOD (4.35 Pontefract)
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