169-1 JACKPOT DOUBLE ACROSS THE CARDS: Daqman doubles his Irish Lincolnshire fancies with two in one race at Lingfield this afternoon, aiming for a jackpot pay-out of up to 169-1.
GUARDS ON PARADE: He naps Guards Chapel at Lingfield and one of his early-bird horses to follow, Yellow Rosebud, runs in the Group race in Ireland.
Lightning can strike twice in different Lincolns. Sweet Lightning, winner of the 2011 Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, is on course for the Irish Lincolnshire at The Curragh this afternoon.
Quality horses have won this race off 97 and 102 in the last five seasons and ‘Lightning’ is on 100. He also has a perfect stalls start.
In eight of the last 10 years, the race has gone to a horse drawn 12 or higher. Six times in the decade, it has been won from stalls 12 to 19. Sweet Lightning is in 15.
Johnny Murtagh, who won the Doncaster Lincoln on this horse off a 4lb higher mark, took the Curragh equivalent for John Oxx last season from the adjacent stall 14, his third Irish Lincolnshire victory in the decade.
Sweet Lightning won at Doncaster for Michael Dods but was then switched to Tommy Carmody by owner Andrew Tinkler and was placed in a Group 3.
He was thought of as a good-ground horse until a superb handicapping effort in August when, on heavy ground over today’s CD, he was beaten about three lengths giving more than a stone to the first two in the Irish Cambridgeshire.
The second, Bold Thady Quill, was subsequently a mile in arrears – 17.5 lengths to be precise – when Inis Meain won on the heavy at Listowel but Inis Meain is up to an all-time high of 99 now.
Incidentally, the third horse behind Inis Meain that day off a rating of 85 was a three-year-old (then), trained by Dessie Hughes, none other than Our Conor, now a 160 over hurdles after his sensational triumph at Cheltenham.
No wonder then that Barry Connell, who owns Inis Meain, has bought Our Conor for an undisclosed sum.
Tom Dascombe switches Anton Chigurh from the Doncaster Lincoln (missed the cut) to run in this Irish version, with heavy ground the making of him last backend.
He joins Richard Fahey’s Our Boy Jack for a two-pronged English raid. This pair were second and third at Ayr last summer, with ‘Jack’ now weighted to turn around the placings.
Dermot Weld’s lightly-raced Tandem (stall 13) was also left in at Doncaster until the five-day stage. He loves the mud and Weld has won the Lincolnshire three times already.
Tommy Stack’s Croi An Or has something added (blinkers first time) and something taken away (first run after being gelded) in the hope of improving his chance. Stack has won this twice since 2004.
The young improver of the race must surely be Shifting, who didn’t race until July and broke his maiden in August, subsequently winning on heavy and getting within seven lengths of a Group-2 horse, Manieree: 15.5 this morning on BETDAQ is big.
LINGFIELD The market knew nearly everything at Southwell yesterday. This morning it said that Hedy (2.10) was a bigger rival for El Duque than the morning-paper betting forecast suggested.
But that’s filly against a colt and El Duque’s trainer, Bill Turner, won the Brocklesby (thanks, Bill).
Mia’s Boy (3.40) just failed to catch Aquilonius over CD in February and is weighted to do so now but neither has been able to score since.
John Biscuit is getting fit with the Epsom Spring Meeting in mind – he’s won twice on the course – and Swing Alone, though a good second on the last day, has been running off a similar mark without winning for three starts now.
I fancy Fennell Bay, dropped 7lb since he met John Biscuit in August. Trainer Mark Johnston has had two winners, a second and a third from four runners since Thursday.
After winning the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, Fennell Bay would have been long odds-on for a race like today’s but lost his way. We now know what was on his mind: he’s been gelded during the turf close season and this is his first run back.
Fennell Bay is 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning, with a treble-your money place offer. Nice one, win and place, for a nine-horse race.
His main rival could again be John Biscuit. You’d normally expect a Balding to need the run but the implication of a first-time hood is that he’s running for his life today and hoping to follow up at Epsom.
Guards Chapel (3.10) rates the nap. He scored in January and February and upped his game again last time – if his form with Scribe can be believed – but the concession of more than a stone to six-lengths Lingfield winner and improving four-year-old Hoonose proved too much.
Today Guards Chapel (4.0 on BETDAQ as I write) takes on two older horses. At nine, Sommersturm is unlikely to put back-to-back wins together off his highest mark since finishing last of seven in June. Likewise Llamadas, who is now 11.
Russian George hasn’t won for three years and there’s the prospect that Hi Note will bounce after a hard race behind Llamadas on the last day. Beat Route has never won beyond 1m 4f. So get on Guard!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points) 6.6pts win (nap) GUARDS CHAPEL (3.10 Lingfield)
BET (to win 20 points) 2pts win and place FENNELL BAY and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) JOHN BISCUIT (3.40 Lingfield)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.8pts win TANDEM, 2.6pts win SWEET LIGHTNING and 2pts win SHIFTING (4.30 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES JACKPOT DOUBLES (2 x 3 = 6 doubles to 1pt stake): Fennell Bay and John Biscuit (3.40 Lingfield) with Shifting, Sweet Lightning and Tandem (4.30 The Curragh)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Yellow Rosebud (3.30 The Curragh)
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