‘ANOTHER FRODON’ AT AINTREE TODAY, WARNED DAQMAN: Daqman warned in an earlier preview of today’s big race at Aintree that Paul Nicholls aims to produce ‘another Frodon’. Charlie Appleby’s amazing season could continue in the stayer’s Group 1 in Paris, as could Philip Hobbs’ fine start to the Jumps campaign.
LOOK OUT FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS OF 2022: What did you think of Luxembourg? Daqman is wary of the two-year-olds’ form and will reassess his ratings next week as Three Years Olds Of 2022.
NOBLE TRUTH ABOUT LUXEMBOURG
Who would be a racing tipster? Angel Bleu and Ancient Rome, winner and third in the Lagardere on Arc day, were running early on the Saint Cloud card yesterday (12.58) ahead of the second horse, Noble Truth, who was in the Horris Hill (2 o’clock Newbury).
I tipped Noble Truth, running at Newbury in similar conditions to the Lagardere race, and I was, of course, delighted to see the Lagardere form upheld when Angel Bleu and Ancient Rome were one-two, separated by a head, in that Saint-Cloud event, the Criterium International.
Didn’t it seem to make Noble Truth an absolute certainty, at least to place, in the Horris Hill on ground at Newbury, which often does a fair imitation of French mud?
Not a bit of it. Noble Truth, at 5-4 favourite, pulled hard and was only fourth behind the comparatively unfancied (at 4-1) Light Infantry, a new kid on the block.
In the Futurity, 75 minutes later, another new kid, Luxembourg, also whipped the accepted top two-year-old form of Bayside Boy (3rd), Imperial Fighter (5th) and Royal Patronage (7th).
Light Infantry and Luxembourg were living off potential more than form in the book, and now both go to winter quarters with the same spoilers hanging over them.
Will they see the winter out and train on next year; will something come along in the early Spring trials and snuff them both out in the same way that they dissed the established form yesterday?
Trainer Aidan O’Brien described Luxembourg – head up and putting a high action into his stride – as ‘a big, big baby’, and he of all people will know that babies can grow into Classic winners or simply throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to play the game.
Betting on the Guineas and Derby now solely concerns the son of Camelot, of whom O’Brien also said: ‘You have to be delighted with him really.’
That word ’really’ translates as ‘what else can you do; only time will tell whether this is a forever champion or just the glimpse of a monster.’
Look out this week for my character assessment of all the two-year-olds seen this season, which will be the three-years olds of 2022.
I shall not be recommending a short price about Luxembourg in Guineas or Derby.. at least not for six months!
KEMARI TO CAPTURE ROYAL OAK
⭕ 2.50 Longchamp (Prix Royal Oak) The stayers wind up their Group-1 season on very soft ground just short of 2m. Five of the runners are raiders from these islands.
Scope Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old had issues during the summer, not being seen again until fifth in the Great Voltigeur won by Ybir (second The Mediterranean) and sixth in the St Leger.
He returned to winning form in a lower grade, eased down to win an Ascot Listed.
Kemari Queen’s Vase winner for Charlie Appleby but stone last in the Great Voltigeur, was beaten three-parts of a length by stablemate Manobo in the Chaudenay over today’s course and distance on very soft.
Search For A Song Second in the 2020 Long Distance Cup to Trueshan, Dermot Weld’s five-year-old was only sixth in last month’s targeted Irish St Leger but recovered to beat The Mediterranean nearly 10 lengths at the Curragh (Group 3). Needs better ground.
Quickthorn (Hughie Morrison) was just touched off in the Ebor but failed at Group-3 level before and after that race.
Skazino v Valia is an ongoing challenge match among the home team, Skazino leading 2-1 Valia; he won over today’s course and distance in very soft conditions in the Spring but Valia got her revenge over a furlong shorter in July when Skazino had to give her 7lb.
I expect Skazino (BETDAQ 7.0) to have the edge at today’s revised weights but will find the three-year-olds Kemari (5.2 offers) and Scope a handful, both in receipt of 8lb.
ROLLING’S TONED UP FOR THIS..
⭕ 2.25 Aintree Follow 10-year-olds in veterans’ chases (they are nine out of 10 in this one). Here’s one for a trainer in top form, Philip Hobbs:
Rolling Dylan has had time out pointing and comes here a stone lower than when he last appeared in a Graded race at Cheltenham: BETDAQ 10.5 is too big.
Black Op did well in the autumn two years ago and has been highly tried at Graded level but has to give Rolling Dylan 18lb. Captain Chaos prefers the mud.
⭕ 3.00 Aintree (Old Roan Handicap) I warned in my preview that Paul Nicholls’ Tamaroc Du Mathan was ‘expected’ in this, following in the hoofprints of the same stable’s Frodon (2018). BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 4.6.
Decent two-miler Allmankind has to give him 12lb but, after wind ops and a recent reappearance over hurdles, is out to prove his stamina – that the Ayr win was no fluke – and that he settles better. If he doesn’t, the stamina might give out.
Nuts Well cracked it first run back but last year’s winner of this is 10 now and higher in the handicap without Danny MacMenamin’s claim.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Aintree (win 20)
BET 2pts win ROLLING DYLAN
2.50 Longchamp (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win SKAZINO
BET 4.75pts win KEMARI
3.00 Aintree (win 20 nap)
BET 5.5pts win TAMAROC DU MATHAN
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
