WINNING BANKER SPLIT BUT DOUBLE BOOSTS THE PROFIT: Saturday-king Daqman moved in the high stakes yesterday for a confident Sandown double on Integral (banker, WON 13-8, dd ht) and Kingman (WON 2-7) but the banker was forced to a dead-heat. He also scored with Sun Central (WON 4-1).
BALLYDOYLE TESTS THE GUINEAS FORM TODAY: Though John Gosden’s Kingman cemented his position as 2,000 Guineas favourite, the inevitable Ballydoyle response comes from Great White Eagle at The Curragh today and the 1,000 Guineas favourite, Charlie Hills’ Kiyoshi, is under a triple Aidan O’Brien attack.
DAQMAN MAXIMUM STAKES ON ARC FAVOURITE NOVELLIST: But you can forgive Daqman if his attention is elsewhere – in Germany – where his column’s 24.0 BETDAQ Arc bet, Novellist, now around 4-1 favourite with bookmakers, attempts a fifth consecutive success.
There’s a certain satisfaction in saying ‘I told you so.’ But I didn’t pay enough attention to my own advice yesterday in my analysis of what I called the ‘massive draw bias’ at all three main meetings, Beverley, Chester and Sandown.
In fact, the results by stall of the races I featured were 3 beat 2, 5 beat 1, 2 beat 4, and 1 beat 3. The rest of the fields may as well have stayed at home. In a field.
But I hope today that my ‘I told you so’ about Novellist can be sustained at my current lofty position, where I have 24.0 in this column – on BETDAQ, of course – about the 4-1 favourite for the Arc.
And my two-year-olds list, which has won with War Command and Kingman in the last five days, could land a double today with Kiyoshi or Tapestry and Great White Eagle as the hunt for next year’s Classic winners hots up.
GREAT WHITE EAGLE (2.40 The Curragh, Round Tower Stakes) By the sire of Ravens Pass, and entered in all the two-year-old ’classics’, up to the Dewhurst and beyond to the Racing Post Trophy.
If he runs as relaxed as on his debut maiden win in fast time at Naas, this should be smooth and easy, though three colts from that race have done nothing for the form since.
It was 11.5 bar one this morning on BETDAQ, with official top-rating, Boom The Groom, second in the market but not from a great family, which also applies to English raider, Free Code, who is by the same sire and comes to this race from a Haydock nursery.
Boom The Groom has already finished in front of the Ballydoyle second string, Expedition, but race-readers reckoned him ‘a decent colt but a bit tricky.’
Remember You – beaten by Great White Eagle at Naas – and Sign From Heaven have the fillies’ allowance but, though Sign From Heaven is rated second only to the favourite by the Racing Post, she was beaten in a nursery.
NOVELLIST (4.05 Baden-Baden, Grosser Preis Von Baden) This column had a big price about the Monsun four-year-old Novellist (24.0 to win 40 points) long before he romped away with the King George over five Group-1 winners, the form boosted by an International for runner-up Trading Leather.
Monsun is sire of Breeders Cup winner, Shirocco; Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner, Manduro; and Prix De Diane heroine Stacelita. Novellist could be his best.
At his best, Meandre, the dual Grand Prix winner (both Longchamp and Saint-cloud), would be a huge threat, but he’s run a good 7lb below that this season and is 10lb inferior to Novellist in Racing Post ratings.
Seismos and Empoli were one-two in a Group 1 in Munich but Seismos was well behind his stablemate, Novellist, on today’s course in the Spring.
This year’s Classic-season form is best represented by Quinzieme Monarche but that’s not saying a lot, since the American-bred was only fourth in the German Derby.
KIYOSHI (4.15 The Curragh, Moyglare Stud Stakes) Dubawi filly with speed on one side of her pedigree, stamina on the other, and reckoned ‘breathtaking’ by Jamie Spencer when she won the Albany at Royal Ascot.
The second home that day, Richard Fahey’s Sandiva, went on to win the Prix Du Calvados in the Deauville season from a filly related to Zafonic and Zamindar. The third, Joyeuse, is out of a Lancashire Oaks winner.
You have to go back to seventh place to find the Ballydoyle contender that day, Wonderfully, sister to Mars, who has since won a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Second at Leopardstown was Perhaps, who was afterwards runner-up to Tapestry in a Group 2 at The Curragh.
Wonderfully, Perhaps and Tapestry have three things in common: all are trained by Aidan O’Brien; all are by Galileo; and all run against Kiyoshi today in a massed Ballydoyle broadside against the 1,000 Guineas favourite.
Tapestry’s dam won this Moyglare test and the BETDAQ market this morning says that the Ballydoyle assault will succeed: it has Tapestry favourite over Kiyoshi, with 7.0 bar two.
But the history of the Moyglare sets up the stats in favour of experience: winners of this race have come to it with plenty of racing on their CV.
Recent stars have been Saorsie Abu (six previous runs), Miss Beatrix (five), Sky Lantern (four); Maybe (three, all wins), Misty For Me (three), Again (three) and Tapestry’s dam, Rumplestiltskin (four). Only one in among them, Termagant, had fewer than three races under her belt.
This in itself is a huge pointer to Rizeena, the Queen Mary winner who did so well against the colts in the Prix Morny last time out, when she looked as though today’s 7f was now needed.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: In a punter-friendly 105% list of offers in the BETDAQ orange, I’m raising my profit target from 20 to 30 points for this race, taking 3.1 Kiyoshi and 7.0 Rizeena.
A stakes saver Tapestry would plunge me deep into odds-on for the race, so I shall bet enough on Great White Eagle to support a double with Tapestry to get my Moyglare stakes back, should Tapestry be the great eagle among the fillies as Ballydoyle touts would have us believe.
I, personally, play like this throughout the day, but don’t normally burden this column by trying to predict all eventualities. I usually take an early position and leave you to effect the later strategy. But that 105% list gave me offers I couldn’t refuse.
I can’t resist a pound on a handicap like the Irish Cambridgeshire (4.45), particularly with winners at 25-1 (twice), 20-1 and 16-1 (twice) since 2007.
What did they have in common that will give us a lead? Five of those six carried 8st 13lb or less. They were drawn mostly very high (18 beat 17 and 12; 14 beat 15 and 16) or very low (first two home 6-2 and 2-4), with the middle squeezed out.
Strangely, these draw stats fit most of those set 8st 13lb or lower! Among them Target Acquired (46.0), Golden Shoe (27.0) and Mordanmijobsworth (22.0) are likely pace runners, and any one of them could get away from this field, since all are apprentice ridden, claiming up to 10lb.
In the last five years, claiming jockeys have finished 11122, so I’m splitting my stakes among those three at the bottom, two of them three-year-olds, like last year’s winner, Punch Your Weight.
DAQMAN’S BETS
SPECIAL BET (no profit target) 12pts win GREAT WHITE EAGLE (2.40 The Curragh) and DAQ MULTIPLES 6pts win double the same one with TAPESTRY (4.15 The Curragh)
MAXIMUM-STAKES BANKER (NAP): 20pts win NOVELLIST (4.05 Baden-Baden)
BET (to win 30 points) 14pts win KIYOSHI and 5pts win RIZEENA (4.15 The Curragh)
BET (to win 20 points): 1pt win and place MORDANMIJOBSWORTH, 0.75pts win and place GOLDEN SHOE and 0.45pts win and place TARGET ACQUIRED (4.45 The Curragh)
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