IT’S THE MUD-L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE WITH RACES 10 SECONDS SLOW: Only the victorious camp will claim today’s Arc as ‘the greatest’ or the ‘race of the century’ in Longchamp going described as ‘very soft’ and with three of yesterday’s races run around 10 seconds slow! More’s the pity because it’s certainly fielding one of the greatest line-ups. Headlines:
LOVE MISSES THE ARC AGAIN
DON’T GO IN DEEP ON RIVER
FAITH IN THE DERBY WINNER
MOORE v DETTORI GLORY MATCH
SOFTLY, SOFTLY WITH SLIPPERS
KINROSS WILL LIKE THE GROUND
ODDS-ON LONGCHAMP WINNER 5.0 IN BETDAQ MORNING OFFERS: Not much to update in the records after yesterday, with Daqman now on 55 and Pricewise 34, and a run of Daqman seconds to report: 2nd 8-1 Swoon, 2nd 76-10 Kemari, 2nd 11-4 Stradivarius, 2nd 11-4 Mother Earth, 2nd 2-1 The Revenant.
WON 7-10 MANOBO (from BETDAQ 5.0)
WON 17-10 REAL WORLD (Fortune Cookies)
LOVE MISSES THE ARC AGAIN
⚠️ HEADS UP Frankie Dettori is without a mount in the Arc de Triomphe after Love was withdrawn for the second year running; in 2020 it was because of ‘deteriorating conditions’ and today after showing ‘a slightly elevated temperature reading last night.’
Heavy rain today could lead to more defections, with the Prix Marcel Boussac market wide open until the time of the race because trainer Andre Fabre ‘could take Raclette out at the last minute’ and switch to the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket next week.
⭕ 1.15 Longchamp (Prix Marcel Boussac) One mile for 2yo fillies. Launched Arc winners Zarkava (2007) and Found (2014), one of four Marcel Boussac winners for Aidan O’Brien.
A clash of two Frankel fillies. Andre Fabre’s Raclette, who beat three previous winners with ease at Chantilly on the soft, is favourite with Team Gosden’s Natasha, half-sister to a French Derby winner, among the outsiders.
Fabre has two others in the race, the one-two here at Longchamp last month, Fleur d’Iris and Zellie.
George Boughey’s Oscula, third in the Albany at Royal Ascot, controlled Zellie all the way at Deauville in August (soft), but was only third in both the Calvados – Fleur d’Iris second – and in the Rockfel.
Agartha (Joseph O’Brien) has won on the soft in Ireland and was runner-up in the Moyglare to Discoveries, whom she’d earlier beaten at the Curragh.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 12.0 Natasha
DON’T GO IN DEEP ON RIVER
⭕ 1.50 Longchamp (Prix Jean-luc Lagardere) One mile for 2yo colts. Aidan O’Brien has won it eight times, most recent with Happily (2017). Andre Fabre has won four.
Fabre’s Ancient Rome has landed a hat-trick, stepping up each time at Deauville and Longchamp but in races which have not supplied any top form links.
Stone Age, a son of Galileo racing as ever for O’Brien, is still a maiden and has also no obvious connection with the top juvenile form. So you are betting on potential in the top two yards.
Ebro River, on the other hand, has fought five battles in Group 1 and Group 2, in Coventry Stakes, July Stakes, Richmond, Phoenix and National Stakes around the top tracks of England and Ireland and, just when you think he’s fully exposed, he grits his teeth and gets involved with the likes of Native Trail and Point Lonsdale.
That was the National Stakes and he came off worst of the three in his eighth race of the season. In his favour is that he hasn’t had the soft ground that brought him two Springtime victories.
🤔 LAYS LOGIC But there are three or four unbeaten or nearly so against Ebro River after his very tough season; that and the mud of Longchamp surely make him lay material (3-1 or less), particularly if he tries forcing tactics in the conditions. He was 3.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
FAITH IN THE DERBY WINNER
⭕ 3.05 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe). Check out the full profiles of Daqman’s five Arc aces in the Archive: Adayar (Monday’s Daqman), Chrono Genesis (Tuesday), Hurricane Lane (Wednesday), Snowfall (Thursday) and Tarnawa (Friday).
1: ADAYAR Taken to be the first Epsom Derby winner since Golden Horn to win the Arc.. and the first to be drawn in double figures since Golden Horn!
Very lightly raced during a sensational season for Charlie Appleby, is the stuff of dreams on breeding, by Frankel (Galileo) out of a Dubawi mare related to winners up to 2m, and is the big, strong galloper needed for today.
There will be two races with Broome and Deep Bond leading the low numbers, where Snowfall will fail for class and Hurricane Lane for the close proximity of his win in the St Leger.
Alenquer better than his position in the market but Mojo Star swallowed up from the one stall.
2: TARNAWA Mares have won eight times in 13 years and Tarnawa has the cruise control, Christophe Soumillon the positioning skill on this track, and his mount the power to take that rail group on and beat them to the line.
3: CHRONO GENESIS But sitting and waiting out of stall 14 in the late outside charge led by Raabibah (stall 15) is another mare, the pride of Japan, ridden by Oisin Murphy.
Sired by an Arc winner and, like Adayar, kept fresh for battle this afternoon. Adayar’s youth and relentless gallop may just beat her, so a fifth Arc place for the Japanese without winning.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 4.5 Adayar
MOORE v DETTORI GLORY MATCH
⭕ 3.50 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) Followers of last year’s winner of this, Tarnawa, will by now know their fate in the Arc. She is the only Opera star in the decade to defy the dominant low draw.
Aidan O’Brien (Joan of Arc) won with Rhododendron in 2017, James Fanshawe (Audarya) with Speedy Boarding in 2016 and Roger Varian (Zeyaadah) with Nahrain (2011). All three have favoured single-figure stalls.
Audarya was third to Tanawa in 2020, beaten only a length in heavy ground (Ambition fifth) and went on to win the Breeders Cup Fillies And Mares on firm. She’s had only three races this term and should be spot on for another end-of-season double bid: the Opera followed by the British Champions Middle Distance in two weeks’ time.
Joan Of Arc had Burgarita (third) and Sybilla Spain (fourth) behind when she won the French Oaks eased down in June, after being pipped in the Irish 1,000 Guineas on heavy.
While Zeyaadah and Joan of Arc were second and third in the Nassau Stakes, Audarya was being short-headed by Grand Glory at Deauville (Thundering Nights third).
I see today’s race as Ryan Moore on Joan of Arc just getting the better off Frankie Dettori on Grand Glory, with Audarya third.
BETDAQ value 8.2 Grand Glory, 8.8 Joan Of Arc
SOFTLY, SOFTLY WITH SLIPPERS
⭕ 4.25 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye) With Real World scoring yesterday, I am looking for a Fortune Cookies double through Glass Slippers in this 5f European-championship sprint.
Single-figure stalls are seven from nine and the honour of the three-year-olds (they’ve won four of the last five) is left to Suesa and Winter Power.
Suesa is drawn 12 and has already been well beaten by Winter Power, whose success this season has all been at York and all on good ground.
Irish raider Romantic Proposal has also been seen at her best on a sound surface and she has been drawn 13.
Glass Slippers won this in 2019 on very soft ground and has suggested behind Suesa at Goodwood (unfancied at 22-1) and Romantic Proposal at the Curragh on good ground that today at Longchamp has been the target all along.
BETDAQ value 5.6 Glass Slippers
KINROSS WILL LIKE THE GROUND
⭕ 5.00 Longchamp (Prix de la Foret) You’d have to call this the 7f championship of Europe because the trip has no other Group 1. It’s a specialist’s game, witness the triple success of One Master (2018-2020).
Space Blues and Pearls Galore have not won on ground worse than good to soft.
Kinross won the Group-2 Lennox at Goodwood in soft going, and Sagamiyra just failed to give Mother Earth 7lb at Deauville (Speak Of The Devil third) before winning a Longchamp Group 3 at this trip.
BETDAQ value 6.4 Kinross, 7.2 Sagamiyra
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 1pt win NATASHA
3.05 Longchamp (win 20, nap)
BET 5.5pts win ADAYAR
3.50 Longchamp (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win GRAND GLORY
BET 2.5pts win JOAN OF ARC
4.25 Longchamp (win 12)
BET 2.5pts win GLASS SLIPPERS
5.00 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 1.85pts win KINROSS
BET 1.6pts win SAGAMIYRA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
