20-1 ARC BET TO BEAT THE CHAMPIONS: England (Postponed), Ireland (Harzand and Found) and Japan (Makahiki) line up for the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly this afternoon. But the winner isn’t among those three, says Daqman, whose bets for the race hovered around 11.5 and 20.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
POT-OF-GOLD 200-POINT PUNT: You can’t win it if you’re not in it, says Daqman, who didn’t have a great Saturday but is boldly stepping up the stakes with pot-of-gold bets to win up to 200 points on the Arc.
BANKER BET ON ENGLISH RAIDER: He has banker stakes on an English raider and takes on Pricewise of the Racing Post for value in the 1.10, 3.05 and 5.15 with the score now standing at 74-33 in Daqman’s favour.
PROMISE OF SPRING O’BRIEN IRONY
1.10 Chantilly (Prix Marcel Boussac; fillies’ criterium) Promise To Be True would give Aidan O’Brien a hat-trick in this – and his fifth win in the race – after success for today’s Arc contender Found (2014) and Ballydoyle (2015), who won a star-studded renewal last year (Qemah third, and another Arc hope, Left Hand, fourth).
Like Alice Springs yesterday, an Aidan O’Brien filly can put in a bad run, then bounce back and win. And you don’t know whether she will keep that new-found form or not.
Group-3 winner at Leopardstown, Promise To Be True flopped in the Moyglare at The Curragh, evens favourite after a six-week holiday.
It will be ironic if France’s O’ Brien, champion-trainer Jean-Claude Rouget, wins this with one of two fillies very close to the Ballydoyle bloodlines.
First of Spring, by Galileo, is out of a mare related to Dylan Thomas, and Toulifaut, already a CD winner at Chantilly (beat Normandel), is closely related to Ernest Hemingway, though his sire is Frankel.
But don’t forget Dabyah and Frankie Dettori, despite a wide stall, adjacent to Toulifaut. Dabyah, daughter of a champion Australian two-year-old, has bags of stamina on the dam’s side.
I’ll go with a low draw and the unbeaten and superbly-bred First of Spring under Christophe Soumillon (9.6 offers early mouse on BETDAQ).
WHY IGNORE FORM-CHOICE SALOUEN
1.45 Chantilly (Prix Lagardere; colts’ criterium) Aidan O’Brien has won this seven times but the prize has stayed home in France for the last three seasons.
And here we go again with two Ballydoyle horses which won their penultimate starts but which were beaten on the last day: the War Front colt Whitecliffsofdover, and yet another Galileo, Utah, who is only a handicapper on form.
Kontrastat is the sole Group winner in a field which is a Group 3 dressed up as a Group 1. It would be anathema to breeding fans if this hurdles-related colt won, even if it is a sub-standard renewal. The only English stable represented is Sylvester Kirk’s with Salouen.
National Defense was third to highly-regarded Akihiro over today’s CD, with the fourth home Sea Fox, who had just been beaten half a length by Salouen at Saint-cloud.
Sea Fox was just a length off the winner of the Royal Lodge, so Salouen looks slightly better, though they’re all of a heap, and it’s a question of which one improves on the form.
Why not Salouen, who is being ignored in the market at 11.5 this morning, probably because he’s with an unfashionable trainer.
SO MI DARLING! YOUR TURN AT LAST
2.20 Chantilly (Prix de l’Opera) England have won the Opera five times this century and three-year-olds are seven out of eight, a stats double which pays out on So Mi Dar (pictured).
The John Gosden trio in my horses to follow at the start of the season were Shalaa, Jack Hobbs and So Mi Dar, with So Mi Dar the money-spinner from only a couple of runs.
That’s how thin on the ground was success for the established Gosden’s stars.
But So Mi Dar came back after four months’ off and won at Yarmouth last month; Shalaa hit the Champions Day road with a fabulous Frankie Dettori ride yesterday; and Jack Hobbs’ Champions Day path to glory regained is going ‘good; galloped impressively round Kempton the other day’, says Gosden.
Frankie’s refusal to wield the whip as Shalaa was challenged at Ascot, scraping home by a neck, should pay more Gosden dividends on Champions Day.
Meanwhile, it would make my day today if So Mi Dar could at last pay me my Oaks winnings that never wuz! Banker.
NEW BAY A BETTER HORSE THIS YEAR
3.05 Chantilly (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) I’ve been through a dozen Chantilly races at 1m 4f and can’t find a winner drawn higher than 9; and 10 of the 12 were won by stalls 1 to 5. Yesterday, albeit in a small field, 4 beat 1 at the trip.
Found, who had little chance last year drawn out wide in 15 at Longchamp, has now been smacked in the eye with gate 12 at Chantilly. Unlucky for some.
Indeed, potentially unlucky for Aidan O’Brien all round; his two other candidates, Highland Reel and Order Of St George are in 11 and 16.
Granted a strong pace, St George could actually benefit from covering more ground than the others, as a 14f-plus horse who won the Gold Cup. The morning 20.0 on BETDAQ is huge.
English and Irish Derby winner Harzand and Japanese Derby winner Makahiki, top two in my ABC Guide (see Archive earlier in the week) have had mixed fortunes. Harzand likes soft ground but is in stall 6; Makahiki likes top of the ground but is in stall 14.
Postponed in 7 will surely be hard to beat with the draw in his favour and the ground not a problem. But five-year-olds have a very poor record.
The one I fancy was unlucky in the race last year, is well enough drawn and has been saved up for the race, after only three starts in the whole of 2016.
Additionally, New Bay (11.5 on BETDAQ) will enjoy the ease in the ground, and has the jockey find of the season in France, Vincent Cheminaud, in the saddle.
The winner of the 2015 French Derby was my big shout for the Arc. He finished third, little more than two lengths off the magic winner, Golden Horn, and just in front of the marvellous Treve, but is now ‘a stronger horse,’ says his trainer.
ORDER IN: 1 New Bay, 2 Order Of St George, 3 Postponed (saver), 4 Silverware.
20-1 ARDAD PUNT COULD SURPRISE
4.35 Chantilly (Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp) British raiders are 7/10; older horses are 7/10. But the draw? Usually the biggest clue to a sprint but we’ve switched tracks from Longchamp and there are very few big fields to go on at Chantilly, so it’s only a tentative ‘low stalls’ verdict.
Just Glamorous beat last year’s Abbaye winner, Goldream, over today’s CD last month, with Marsha splitting the pair. The result by stall that day was 3, 7, 4.
Today Marsha (in 12) is the loser of that trio, if indeed there is a bias. Profitable, who wants a bit more cut is in 11, and the majority from these islands are pushed out to 13 (Take Cover), 14 (Cotai Glory), 15 (Washington DC) and 16 (Duke Of Firenze).
It all goes to suggest that dual Nunthorpe winner, the grey mare Mecca’s Angel (stall 7), has both form and draw on her side.
Getting a stone and drawn 5 (Goldream’s berth last year), the John Gosden juvenile punt with Ardad could be the 20-1 surprise packet to go one better than Kingsgate Native, second as a two-year-old in 2007.
TWO TIMES VALUE AGAINST LIMATO
5.15 Chantilly (Prix de la Foret) The bit of give in the ground may be the undoing of the hot favourite. I certainly wouldn’t want the 4-5 this morning Limato, returned to sprinting recently and beaten in this race year ago when also a short price.
Trixia has strong claims in the absence of her conqueror on this course, the German Spectre; and Jimmy Two Times has been climbing the ranks from Listed to Group 3 to Group 1.
They were 11.0 and 9.0 respectively on BETDAQ this morning, and two against the field appealed more than one at odds on.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 3.4pts win FIRST OF SPRING (1.10 Chantilly)
BET 3pts win SALOUEN, and LAY to lose 10pts KONTRASTAT (1.45 Chantilly)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SO MI DAR (2.20 Chantilly)
POT-OF-GOLD ARC BETS: Ton-up each 10pts win NEW BAY and 10pts win and place ORDER OF ST GEORGE (3.05 Chantilly)
BET (to win 20): 12pts win MECCA’S ANGEL, and 1pt win and place ARDAD (4.35 Chantilly)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 6.25pts win JIMMY TWO TIMES and 5pts win TRIXIA, and LAY to lose 10pts LIMATO (5.15 Chantilly)
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