16-1 DAQMAN BIG-RACE BLUNDER: Daqman rues the day he ignored his own ABC stats and form analysis on the BF Hurdle at Newbury yesterday, after it threw up 16-1 shots which finished winner and second. Full story below, and look out for more Daqman ABC guides!
HERCULES IN ANTE-POST TWIST: It’s Black Hercules big test for Cheltenham today but Daqman will already be on a Navan banker in an earlier race, and he has a different ante-post bet for the NH Chase at Cheltenham
237-1 FORECAST.. RIGHT UNDER HIS NOSE
It serves you right! I can still hear my mother’s words when I did something so stupid that it didn’t deserve sympathy..
But punters are a breed who know the regular tragedy of The Missed Opportunity, the mother of all betting heartaches.
On Friday, I had the 16-1 winner, Agrapart, top of my ABC Guide to the BF Hurdle at Newbury yesterday, based on age, weight and class.
Fluke? Yes, in the sense that it was top of the list simply because Agrapart came first in the alphabetical order of runners. But hang on a minute..
Agrapart was one of only six to tick all my boxes, and one of the five others, Starchitect, finished second, also 16-1.
First and second – paying a 237-1 forecast with Ladbrokes from a short list of six – is hardly a fluke, particularly when their position was due to an ‘A’ for quality form.
But I was the human flaw in the logical argument that destroyed the hard work of my stats piece.
I introduced those ‘gut instincts’ we all have on race day and beat myself; trying too hard. That’s a rare schoolboy lesson but it’s on many a punter’s report, whether he’s ‘A’ level or not: tried too hard.
As the man says in House Of Games: ‘It happens to the best and it happens to the rest’.
But the spectre of that 237-1 Ladbrokes’ forecast was a dark raven of my Saturday night, and it kept on tapping at my door whenever I tried to go to sleep and ignore it.
CAN WE TRUST FAVOURITES IN THE MUD?
Here we go again. Another day; another trial; another odds-on winner.. Or another flop!
I can congratulate myself on something: I’ve dodged most of the flops and managed eight winning bankers out of 11.
Trial after trial, as if Cheltenham is all that matters. And, just when there’s beginning to be some respite, with the festival getting so close, we have a string of Grand National trials coming up.
Can we avoid moving into the red with all-in on the Black at Navan? Let’s take a look at Exeter first, another mudbath deemed raceable after a morning inspection.
2.10 Exeter Some decent horses have won this, not least Many Clouds (2013), but yesterday hammered into my thick skull another lesson I had already learned in the last two months.
You can’t trust those Ditcheat favourites. Three in a row between 8-15 and 2-1 bit the dust (mud) yesterday.
The stable is likely to have three today, two at odds on, with Brelan d’As 2.26 in this one, as I write.
But his French form, though it lumps him with a notional top weight here, reveals success only on good to soft ground (mistake and not recover on ‘very soft’), and he’s hooded for his British debut.
2.40 Exeter To be fair to Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson has had five out of six losing favourites, including L’Ami Serge at 5-1 on yesterday.
He’s withdrawn Buveur d’Air in this one, leaving Nicholls with another hot-pot, Politologue, who’s been in top competition, including the Challow Hurdle, since arriving from France.
MAYBE IT’S BEST TO WAIT FOR EXETER POT
3.10 Exeter They’re always a trial, these qualifiers. The trainers want a place in the final, but with a nice weight, so are they going to spoil their chances here?
An 8-1 paper forecast, Scoop The Pot was in to 3.85 on BETDAQ and certainly looked poised, getting a stone from Unowhatimeanharry, a weights turn around of 13lb for five lengths on their meeting at Cheltenham in November.
‘Harry’ is also worse off with Colin Tizzard’s West Approach, whom he later beat over 3m, also at Cheltenham.
There’s always a problem with collateral form at Cheltenham. It’s ok for Cheltenham, but not always for courses elsewhere, thoiugh Scoop The Pot looks so well placed.
Incidentally, he Nichols runner, The Eaglehaslanded, was a drifter out to 9.6, at the time of writing. Check with Movers later.
3.40 Exeter Tizzard has done more than one rejuvenation job this season – not just Cue Card – and Golden Chieftain looks good at 5.8 in this veterans’ race, which cut up by about third this morning.
It could be a war of attrition with another stayer, Midnight Prayer, but he’s a glass horse, having raced only once in 2015, so everything will have to go right for him.
IRISH BANKER AND ANTE-POST POSITION
3.00 Navan (Ladbrokes Ireland Boyne Hurdle) Dedigout goes well fresh and won this race last year, but time marches on – he’s 10 now – and trainer Tony Martin is out of form, his strike rate low overall and non-existent in the last fortnight.
The one they want – and I’ll make him my banker – is Christmas Hurdle winner Prince Of Scars (2.18 on BETDAQ), young improver extraodiunary.
4.00 Navan (Ten Up Novice Chase) This is where I came in. Would a bet on Hercules keep us in the black, or be another odds-on flop?
This race is the first real test for the NH Chase favourite and, if you want to back him now for Cheltenham, there’s only a few pound available at his best orange offer, 4.4.
Only half a dozen horses get quotes under 16.0 and I’ve already pinned my colours to Roi des Francs, who is offered at 9.8 but only 7-1 with bookmakers.
I shall go in here ante-post on Francs. If Black Hercules wins, he will be a short-priced saver on the day. But, if he goes the way of so many hot-shots this trials season, Roi des Francs could be the new favourite.
Double cover Black Hercules by putting him in today’s Daq Multiples!
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points, except banker and ante-post bet)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) PRINCE OF SCARS (3.00 Navan)
BET 7pts win SCOOP THE POT (3.10 Exeter)
BET 4.2pts win GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN (3.40 Exeter)
ANTE-POST (to win 50): BET 5.6pts win ROI DES FRANCS (NH Chase, Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Politologue (2.40 Exeter), Prince Of Scars (3.00 Navan) and Black Hercules (4.00 Navan)
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