DAQMAN HITS 90 OVER PRICEWISE: Muthmir (WON 4-1) put more distance between Daqman and Pricewise yesterday, taking our man into a long lead on the Flat, 51-18 winning returns. The overall score since his challenge to the Racing Post column began on November 23 is now 90-30. Top of the shop!
WEEK OF TWO MAJOR MEETINGS: The Galway Festival in Ireland and Glorious Goodwood on the Sussex Downs both start rolling out winners on Tuesday. Today Daqman checks out the Weld phenomenon at Galway; tomorrow he sets the scene at Goodwood.
WHERE WELD WINS AT GALWAY
It’s that Ballybrit legend again! If you’d bet trainer Dermot Weld in every race on the first three days of the great Galway Festival during the last decade, you would have had 30 winners.
The Curragh-based record-breaking trainer has won all the Irish Classics, the Oaks and 2,000 Guineas in England, the Irish Grand National and a Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle over jumps, to name but a few, as they say.
But he’s best known for his domination of the Galway races. Here’s his race-by-race tally on those first three days so that you know when to put your money down and will be well ahead of the game by the weekend!
* Tuesday (6.05 2yo fillies’ maiden) Weld is particularly hot in maidens, whether for juvenile Flat-racers or hurdlers. His current form in this one is 11121331
* Tuesday (8.15 handicap, 2m) There’s money to be made betting in handicaps, and Weld has farmed this one, with form figures since 2008 of 11112
* Wednesday (3.00 maiden hurdle) Another maiden; another Weld sequence. His form in this since 2002 is 1003111
* Wednesday (4.45 maiden) The third maiden on our early-punts Weld list. Since 2004, he boasts 112121320
* Wednesday (5.30 Galway Plate) Here’s one of the big races, but the story is the same: back-to-back Weld wins in 2004-5.
* Wednesday (6.05 handicap, 1m 1f) Back-to-back Weld winners again, this time closer to the present in 2010-11
* Wednesday (6.40 handicap, 1m 1f) He’s going for a hat-trick in this handicap after landing the last two winners
* Thursday Over the decade, Dermot has had a winner in each of the first four races and in the last race on Thursday, plus two out of the last three in the Guinness Surge (5.35)
WHAT TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON?
All ages can win most sprints but some at the major meetings have trends against the older horses. When you look through the Stewards Cup form later in the week, you’ll find 21 out of 23 winners have been under the age of six.
The same applies in the class-2 at Ascot today (5.20), in which eight out of 10 in the decade – the last seven in a row – have been four or five years old.
With the Mark Johnston second-season colt Peterkin (stall 18) likely to try to make all, high numbers which have dominated sprints at Ascot this summer could hold sway again.
The shape of the race should enable Millys Gift (in 15) to confirm placings from Ascot two weeks back with Robot Boy, though she is slightly worse off at the weights. Robot Boy, who is 10lb higher than for his last success, has the ‘coffin box’ stall 1. The 7.0 Millys Gift on BETDAQ this morning was my first position on the race.
The third day of Ascot’s meeting starts with five debutants fighting out the opener. BETDAQ helps us more than usual in races like this and the early support seems to be for the Richard Hannon trained Desert Force who has a stack of big races entries. He was a 140,000 guineas yearling and the stable won the race last year but it surely is a race to watch with the notebook (or perhaps, these days, tablet?) at your side.
The trick with making money from trainers being in (or out of form is to spot the trend BEFORE it happens !! Because once it does, the world and his wife knows and the edge you had has disappeared and the market has taken it into account.
Sir Mark Prescott might just be on the start of a good run. On Friday night at York he had his first two-year-old winner of the season with Celestial Path who went off an unfancied 16/1 chance.
His horses are starting to run well without winning but he looks to have a solid chance in the 3.05 at Ascot with the top weight Pallastor. The five-year-old is only lightly raced and ran a cracker on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock when going under by just a neck to De Rigueur in the valuable Old Newton Cup – a class two handicap. There’s no reason to think why he shouldn’t improve further for that run and can defy top weight. Hopefully the faster ground won’t be a problem – he was a winner on good ground earlier in his career.
Another top weight likely to run well at Ascot this afternoon is Polybius in the six furlong handicap at 3.40. He’s clearly ahead of the handicapper – it’s just a question of how much ?
He’s out again quickly after his Windsor win at Monday so is racing off the same mark of 83 but with a 6lb penalty. This is clearly a lot more competitive but such was the manner of his win at Windsor I think he could easily be up to it and see of the challengers. Biggest danger is Newton’s Law but this one has a habit of finishing placed which might be repeated today.
Away from Ascot there’s a good card at Pontefract this afternoon where the highlight is the Listed Pomfret Stakes at 4.05.
Custom Cut held on gamely to win a Listed event at Windsor last month and over a similar trip can go close but he picks up a 4lb penalty for that Listed race success which could be a stopper.
Preference is for Highland Knight who is a class dropper and also the winner of this race two years ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win 20)
BET 6.25pts win PALLASTOR (3.05 Ascot)
BET 13pts win (nap) POLYBIUS (3.40 Ascot)
BET 5.1 pts win HIGHLAND KNIGHT (4.05 Pontefract)
BET 3.3pts win MILLYS GIFT (5.20 Ascot)
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