6-1 WINNER IN 64 POINTS PROFIT AT HAYDOCK: Daqman landed three winners on the big-race card at Haydock yesterday, making 64 points profit there thanks to BETDAQ offers taken in his column, all three bigger than SP:
WON 6-1 Gevrey Chambertin (9.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 Sydney Paget (7.2 on BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 More Of That (4.3 on BETDAQ)
NOW IT’S THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: The day’s overall profit was more than 46 points, including all losses, taking his total for three consecutive winning days to 84 points, following winners at 4-1 and 3-1 (twice) on Thursday and Friday.
ROUND ONE: DAQMAN 3, PRICEWISE 0: It was the first day of his declared head-to-head with Pricewise (Racing Post). He had three winners from five bets for +15.5 at BETDAQ morning offers to four Pricewise losers (-4.00 at morning bookies’ best odds) to 1pt level stakes. The battle continues at Navan today.
1.25 Navan (Monksfield Hurdle) This is Noel Meade territory – form figures for this race 14141 – and there were good offers (7.2) about his top class bumper horse, Apache Stronghold, just now developing his hurdles skills.
The BETDAQ market (a punter-friendly 107% in the orange as I write) says he is not ready to take on the runaway Cork and Wexford winners, Azorian and Carriganog, but eight runners at that 7.2 gives me a win-and-place tilt.
2.25 Navan (Ladbrokes Troytown Chase) The Troytown is a race for horses on the way up, with the money down. The winners always come from the first five in the betting (10-1 SP or shorter for the last 10 seasons).
Get on BETDAQ offers early! Despite the big field, the orange showed 104% total probability this morning, a staggering list of offers when you compare it to the massive bookie take-outs which are common in Ireland.
This race saw a massive 145% Total SP last season, which means that, at starting price, you were robbed of the equivalent of almost half your stake!
You’re looking for unexposed chasers of single-figure age (9 out of 10), carrying 10st 9lb or less (9 out of 10) or officially rated no higher than 134 (seven of the last eight), already winners over 2m 4f or more (10 out of 10) and with an outing in the last 30 days (9 out of 10).
Fit those pieces together and the jigsaw reveals Sweet My Lord, Tom Horn, Sole Witness, Carrig Millie and Rockyboya. You could add Pass The Hat and Living Next Door, but no winner in the decade has come from out of the handicap. Pass The Hat’s breeding doesn’t appeal, though he’s from a canny outfit.
The mare Carrig Millie looks good on her Punchestown win in April, found to be in season on her first run back. Trainer Michael Cullen has always maintained that she needs better ground, such as she will encounter today. She’s too big at 23.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
I’m also keen on Goonyella, 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning. A big-handicap winner at Punchestown, he returned in October to go close at Galway. Significantly, Andrew Lynch takes over from his amateur rider.
Grand National targeted Colbert Station and Rockyaboya are high in the handicap; Panthjer Claw is a slow stayer; Ruby Walsh’s mount, Sweet My Lord, was too easy to back this morning at 18.5.
It’s a hard race for a novice and Mad Brian (9.4 as I write) has plenty of weight for his Killarney win, which was run more than a minute slow, but he beat a subsequent 151-rated chaser that day and was reported ‘a natural’ over fences on his reappearance on the first day of the month.
Mad Brian’s rider, Keith Donoghue, who won on Jamsie Hall at Aintree, deserts him here, although the drying ground will suit.
Last year’s winner off 132, Tofino Bay, is 13lb higher but carried that and more when runner-up in the four-miler at the Cheltenham festival.
Cork and Munster Nationals winner Raz De Maree is up a total of 19lb. and drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, over my betting weir at 26.0
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Youngsters Mad Brian and Goonyella look standouts in a field where the past-form horses, Colbert Station and Raz De Maree, have been hard hiked in the handicap. Carrig Millie will like the ground and is a big offer at 23.0.
* The nap today is a maximum-stakes bet on Doctor Harper (12.35 Exeter), who is programmed for a sequence of novice-hurdle successes by a stable in form.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each, except for the nap)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) DOCTOR HARPER (12.35 Exeter)
BET 4.8pts win and place APACHE STRONGOLD (1.25 Navan)
BET 3.5pts win MAD BRIAN, 3.3pts win GOONYELLA and 1.3pts win and place CARRIG MILLIE (2.25 Navan)
BET 2pts win and place VINTAGE VIXON (2.45 Towcester)
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