14-1 WINNER AND 113-1 FORECAST: Daqman continued among the big-time winners on the opening day of the Flat at Doncaster yesterday with a 14-1 hit in the Spring Mile and 20-1 fourth in the Lincoln. He gave the one-two in the Spring Mile, paying a 113-1 straight forecast with Ladbrokes.
GOLD! FIVE BANKERS OUT OF SIX: His day was crowned by a 30-point gold banker on the romp-away Magnolia Stakes winner at Kempton, Romsdal (WON 8-13), his fifth from the last six. His returns in race order were:
WON 8-13 Romsdal (gold banker)
WON 14-1 Chatez (win and place)
(2nd 8-1 Buckstay for 113-1 SF)
4th 20-1 What About Carlo (place)
STRAIGHT INTO A 3-0 LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: The win return Chatez, place Chatez and place What About Carlo gave him an instant 3-0 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post on the very first day of their Flat challenge, after handing him a season-by-season thrashing, jumps and Flat, since November, 2013. Overall scores: DAQMAN 144, PRICEWISE 73.
TODAY: BETDAQ RACING AT DONCASTER: Daqman and Pricewise clash again in the Irish Lincolnshire. But first three quality BETDAQ-sponsored races to complete the Doncaster opening show.
RAIN WOULD MAKE WINDSHEAR A BANKER
3.20 Doncaster (BETDAQ £30 Free Bet & 0% Comm Handicap) A huge response to this handicap. Clearly trainers want this level of sprint well supported early on.
But what a conundrum for punters! Can the track again escape the forecast rain? Can this race be solved by the draw? They came down the middle in straight-course races yesterday and the middle stalls (8 to 15) provided all the winners.
Only improvers aged four and five win this (six out of seven), and we need to be with the stables which did well yesterday: that suggests Tatlisu, Shared Equity, Lexington Abbey, Withernsea and Beach Bar. But all are drawn low.
However, on past form, you’d expect the pace to be put to the race from stalls 1, 7, 8 and 19, suggesting an advantage ‘pull’ on the low stalls.
Richard Fahey appears to have primed course-winner Withernsea (Paul Hanagan at 10.5 on BETDAQ early mouse), who gets further, claiming off his other runner, Tatlisu, who prefers top of the ground (check out that rain and save on him, if it doesn’t come).
But Shared Equity (Graham Lee, 8.4 offers) made a great start to last season and is reckoned likely to climb the handicap ranks this term. Words like ‘Wokingham;’ and ‘Royal Ascot’ are being whispered in the long grass.
3.55 Doncaster (BETDAQ 50% Comm Refund Doncaster Shield) Richard Hannon is on a hat-trick, and St Leger fourth Windshear is back at Donny, dropped out of the Pattern for the first time since June.
That also applies to Cloudscape, with John Gosden scoring twice yesterday, including with the Leger runner-up, Romsdal. But Cloudscape was behind Windshear at Goodwood on firm ground in July yet it’s Windshear who should get the easier surface he prefers this afternoon.
On the ratings, you can forget the rest, though Alan King cocked a snook at the Flat trainers with Chatez yesterday (not much between his First Mohican and Elkaayed).
4.30 Doncaster (Cash Out On The BETDAQ + App Handicap) Three-year-old handicaps are a nightmare until the form has settled down at Royal Ascot time. We have no idea what’s trained on best until they run.
One way of following them – and you will do so if you continue to read this column – is to make up your own stable of second-season animals which you hope will win you the Guineas, Derby and those big Ascot handicaps.
Any one of these at Doncaster could have come on a huge leap over the winter and, with that in mind, I always like those which did well at the backend of their two-year-old careers. Storm Rock caught my eye.
BOLGER TO RUN AMACH IN PARK EXPRESS
3.45 The Curragh (Park Express Stakes) It’s 7-4 to three-year-olds over four-year-olds in the 12 years of this race, with just one success to an older mare.
But just one man has swayed the score in favour of second-season fillies. That’s Jim Bolger, who has had three three-year-old winners, and relies on Steip Amach from that age group today.
If anyone is to stop Gentleman Jim from parking his bus in the home straight for a fourth time, it would be Tommy Stack, who has won it with mares aged four and five, and has two more geared up again here.
But Bolger already has an eye-catching 46% strike-rate in 2015 from six AW winners, and Steip Amach steps out onto very similar terrain which brought her Group-3 success in the Killavullan two-year-old test at Leopardstown in October, turning over a 6-1 on shot of Ballydoyle’s, which had beaten 21 others on the debut.
Odeliz, who was beaten a head in the Park Express last year, continued a bridesmaid at the highest level, finishing her season as runner-up in the A P Taylor at Woodbine in international company.
Odeliz could be a nail-biting lay but the second-season pair, Steip Amach (a massive 11.0 on BETDAQ) and Ballydoyle’s Easter (4.0 as I write) have the potential to be big improvers.
Yet another Galileo, the lightly-raced Easter, an Irish 1,000 Guineas and Oaks entry, turned over an odds-on shot in a big field at Leopardstown in October trained by Jim Bolger.
Trading, laying off, cashing out.. there are half a dozen ways of playing the great BETDAQ game of winning whatever. But over my cornflakes, I can only offer insurance suggestions on my bets as they stand, double insurance in fact. A bet on Steip Amach is covered by a saver on Easter. A lay on Odeliz covers all bets.
4.55 The Curragh (Irish Lincolnshire) Last year’s winner, Stuccodor, and third, Canary Row, try again, claimed off to improve their chances, while the fourth and sixth home, Bold Thady Quill and Defining Year, both shed their claimer in favour of a senior rider.
But past performance in the race has had no bearing on results in the last decade. More important has been the draw, and the form of the stables going into the race.
Stalls 14 to 21 have won all bar two (80%), and the well-being of the Dermot Weld, Ger Lyons, Jim Bolger, Aidan O’Brien and Ralph Beckett stables should influence your short list.
Like yesterday’s Doncaster Lincoln, there have been Curragh SPs of 33-1, 25-1, 20-1, 12-1 and 10-1 in the last nine seasons.
I wrote up Bishan Bedi earlier in the week. He’s been kept to top of the ground and Polytrack and has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, well over my O’Brien betting-weir at 27.0
Haaf A Sixpence was also back to form on AW but won the Newbury Spring Cup of 2013 on soft. His one draw puts me off but it depends what offers you can get. Everything has its price in this class war called horse-racing.
The rain could be heavy; 7 out of 10 winners have been aged four or five; and the low stalls are seemingly at a disadvantage. But look out for a Group horse in a handicap (like the 2012 winner, Sharestan).
The one with the potential for that is Onenightidreamed, who has already mixed it in this company when only three and had raced just twice. He’s been laid out for this but can he overcome stall 5?
At the other end of the handicap, the rain is falling right for Stuccodor, whose talented claimer, Luke Dempsey, brings him down within a pound of last year’s winning mark. But can he overcome stall 6?
I’m left with this feeling: on a day which will be all about overcoming the conditions, the best horses seem to be drawn low and, in what could turn out to be heavy ground, I’m going for lightly-raced sorts with class: Stuccodor (12.5 as I write) and Onenightidreamed (10.5). I hope my own stats don’t catch me out!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points each)
BET 4pts win SHARED EQUITY and 3pts win WITHERNSEA (3.20 Doncaster)
LAY: 8pts win ODELIZ, and BET 3pts win and place STEIP AMACH and 2pts win (stakes saver) EASTER (3.45 The Curragh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) WINDSHEAR (3.55 Doncaster)
BET 6.5pts win STORM ROCK (4.30 Doncaster)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5.2pts win ONENIGHTIDREAMED and 4.3pts win STUCCODOR (4.55 The Curragh)
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