5 ON TARGET FROM DAQMAN 6-GUN: Daqman was in sensational form, as ever for a weekend, when he named five winning bets from his first six yesterday, including a spot-on Double Whammy of Dodging Bullets (WON 7-2) to outgun Sprinter Sacre. The bets were:
WON 3-10 Top Notch (banker nap)
WON 5-2 Kings Lad
WON 5-2 Bitofapuzzle
WON 7-2 Dodging Bullets
WON (lay) Sprinter Sacre (2nd 4-6)
HE MAKES IT 10 LAYS UP IN A ROW: The daring lay of hot-pot superstar Sprinter Sacre gave him 10 consecutive:
WON Puffin Billy (fell 7-4)
WON Champagne Fever (4th 9-2)
WON Grandouet (4th 3-1)
WON Witness In Court (fell 9-1)
WON Relic Rock (3rd 10-11)
WON Bourne (2nd 7-1)
WON Some Buckle (2nd 7-4)
WON Petite Rose (3rd 11-4)
WON Norse Legend (2nd 9-4)
WON Sprinter Sacre (2nd 4-6)
79-POINT BAG AND FOUR BANKERS: On the day, he won 79.20 points profit at BETDAQ offers (58.20 at SP), taking his winning bankers sequence to four. They are:
WON 4-11 Josses Hill
WON 1-1 Kingscourt Native
WON 6-4 Don Cossack
WON 3-10 Top Notch
DON’T FORGET DITCHEAT’S ARTFUL DODGER
The knife-edge is sharper now for the duel to come. And there are two nervous trainers het up for the Champion Chase, after Dodging Bullets defeat of Sprinter Sacre yesterday.
My man in the long grass got it spot on with his verdict from Seven Barrows, and the first wait is for Sprinter Sacre to eat up well and have a holiday before getting back into exercise and the build-up to Cheltenham on Wednesday, March 11.
The debate will rage. Is he as good as he was – he faded yesterday after typically jumping a house as he tanked into a challenging position – and can Dodging Bullets maintain his momentum?
Bullets manned up yesterday and finished in great style, clearly better than his 165 rating though no way the notional 191 of his three-lengths over Sprinter Sacre (a dated 188).
But I would say that the Ditcheat dodger, who improved 10lb last year, is worth another 7lb now, having beaten Twinlight (also on 165 for yesterday) by eight lengths and Somersby (162) by 15.
Sire De Grugy was 169 when he won the Champion Chase and Sprinter Sacre 169 when he won the Arkle. The handicapper must surely give Dodging Bullets the 4lb to equal that. And, to my mind, he’s still on the upgrade.
This year’s Arkle could be one for Willie Mullins with Vautour, who – like The New One yesterday – is an unbackable price at Leopardstown this afternoon. Let’s try to find some better value.
MARITO STUNNING 18.5 OFFER ON BETDAQ
2.20 Leopardstown Chase (See Preview, Daqman Archive, Wednesday) I gave the thumbs down to Djakadam as a likely non-runner, and the green light to Marito for this Grade-A Chase.
And I’m stunned to see some 18.0 and 18.5 available Marito on BETDAQ this morning, with punters probably frightened off because he’s top weight.
But nine-year-olds with 11st 10lb have won this race three times since 2007, all of them in conditions like today’s. In fact, this Grade-1 hurdles second to Hurricane Fly and Grade-2 chase third is claimed off, which drops him down the handicap a few slots.
After his defeat of Roi Du Mee a year back, he was marked down by the Racing Post racereader as ‘not far off the best 2m chasers in Ireland’. He proved that wrong with a cracking point-to-point win over 3m but had to chase an opportunely-ridden Roi Du Mee on the last day over 2m 6f at Tramore.
Marito, favourite then, was clearly on the way back, and has had just six chases in his life, despite his age. With the offers we’ve got, we can now look for one to beat him.
Willie Mullins, who used to train Marito, replaces Djakadam with Rathlin, who appears to have no chance on form but drops back in trip and is well regarded.
Arthur Moore makes the pool muddy with three entries, hogging the bottom rungs of the handicap ladder with Treat Yourself (up in trip) and Back Off Mate (down in trip).
Back Off Mate must have a big chance under Robbie Colgan after his fourth to Balbriggan in the Troytown. Drying ground will suit his third runner, Fever Pitch, and a van runner can leave others toiling for speed behind them on sticky ground.
Tony McCoy’s mount, Byerley Babe, hasn’t coped with the mark he was given after back-to-back wins a year ago, but first-time hood could get a few extra pounds out of him, and the stable reckons he’ll come on for his first few runs of the season.
Foxrock has coped much better after a similar double early last year put him on a tricky mark, but he probably sealed his fate, upped another 7lb, when second in the PP Chase over 3m here at Christmas.
Some Ticket has had two recent runs and Barry Geraghty, who won on him last April, might find the comeback key, but not that you’d bet on it. Federici has some good form but six-year-olds don’t win this. In fact, seven-year-olds haven’t won it recently either; it’s a man’s game.
VERDICT: On form, the winner should come from Back Off Mate, Fever Pitch, Foxrock and Marito, in alpha order. I like Marito in his first handicap. Foxrock has class but also has weight. Back off Mate needs the ground to dry out plenty.
Those two are both seven-year-olds, Federici only six, and this gruelling race, won three times by Arkle in the distant but undimmed past, has gone to horses aged nine and 10 eight times in the last nine years. So Fever Pitch is my choice from the lower weights. Another cracking BETDAQ offer at 17.5.
WARRIOR ON THE RIGHT MARK IN BIG HURDLE
2.50 Leopardstown (See Preview, Daqman Archive, Friday) The stats say you can delete the top 10 runners – no winner carried more than 10st 10lb in the decade – but I made a case for Waxies Dargle being leniently handicapped.
Waxies Dargle and Pairofbrowneyes (on the upgrade and goes well fresh) have been saved up for this, whereas it was never the plan for Snake Eyes, though he looks dangerous there on 10st 11lb, with McCoy in the saddle, now doesn’t he.
The one-two Shantou Ed and Rock The World come from a key race for this over CD at Christmas, with Rock The World a tad better off but high in the handicap.
Gigginstown has their Cheltenham Grand Annual winner Savello- with man of the moment Bryan Cooper doing the steering – off a mark 23lb below his hurdles rating.
He’d have to win first time over the sticks since 2011 and eight is the ceiling age for this, something like Clondaw Warrior, who has already mixed it in Graded hurdles.
The Warrior is off the same mark as previous Willie Mullins winners of this, and seeing Ruby W alsh on 10st 6lb is even more bedazzling than McCoy on Snake Eyes, who has already been beaten at this level on this course. Or was he having ‘a look see?’
VERDICT: There’s a snake in the grass but I shall stand by Waxie’s Dargle (10.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) and call for support from Ruby Walsh on Clondaw Warrior and lightweight Pairofbrowneyes at 12.5 and 15.5 respectively.
HALLELUJAH! BUT ‘HAPPY’ ENDING FEARED
3.35 Kempton Sprinters can win races much later in life, and January-February brought four of Tarooq’s six successes in 2013 and 2014 combined. He’s won two four-horse races, and he’s scored a grade higher than today.
Boom The Groom is consistent and, after three seconds in a row, finally cracked it at class-2 level at Linggfield on the last day, when he had Magnus Maximus behind.
Hallelujah just missed out on a hat-trick here at Kempton when the ‘moral’ in November, beaten a short-head, conceding 3lb to the winner.
There’s collateral form, in that the third horse beat Boom The Groom and Tarooq at Lingfield last month. If they all ran the exact same (tautology intended), the link at today’s weights works out roughly as Hallelujah 100, Tarooq 91, Boom The Groom 86.
Even if this is half wrong, Hallelujah has a couple of lengths on this field, with the exception of the foreign five-year-old Happy Valentine, an unknown quantity over here.
In fact, Happy Valentine is an unknown quantity in France, too, although trained there by Alain de Rouer-Dupre, who has scored four times from his last 25 runners on turf in England. His sole AW starter was second.
That’s not a great strike rate but Happy Valentine – all, his form is in South Africa – looks like a job horse. Whether that ‘job’ is today or ‘next time’, we have no idea, unless the market speaks.
Best of the rest on this eight-race card could be Summerinthecity (3.05), back to his winning trip 23lb lower than his last run on turf, and close up at the finish of a 7f Tapeta race at Wolverhampton recently. A sporting nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at the offers on BETDAQ except Bull’s-Eye Bets, which are win-50)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 3pts win FEVER PITCH and 2.8pts win MARITO (2.20 Leopardstown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 5.5pts win WAXIES DARGLE, 4.3pts win CLONDAW WARRIOR and 3.4pts win PAIROFBROWNEYES (2.50 Leopardstown)
BET 4pts win (nap) SUMMERINTHECITY (3.05 Kempton)
BET 12pts win HALLELUJAH and 5pts win (stakes saver) HAPPY VALENTINE (3.35 Kempton)
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