23.0 SHOT IN THE DARK AT SAINT-CLOUD: Daqman today delves into the murky waters of top juvenile form for the last time in Europe this season after a 20-1 place was his best return in a Saturday slump, just when he thought he could make six winning days in a row. He has 23.0 and 11.5 bets at Saint-Cloud. His nap is over jumps at Carlisle.
MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW TOMORROW: Don’t miss tomorrow’s preview to Tuesday morning’s Melbourne Cup, when he takes on Pricewise of the Racing Post, still wanting one win for 80 returns in feature races. Daqman 79, Pricewise 38 are the challenge totals.
THUNDER TO CARRY CHURCHILL BATON
Two-year-olds are babies. They are learning the game. Push them too far and they might throw their toys out of the pram and cry. What they cry is: ‘ Something hurts. So that’s enough racing for me.’
If you still fancy betting on the Guineas and Derby – and insist on ignoring every warning I give you about the favourites – then take a look at the lessons to be learned from four of the top juvenile races, starting with two consecutive at Saint-Cloud today.
The Criterium International winner of 2015 was Johannes Vermeer, who has raced only once since, beaten 5-2 favourite at Newmarket recently. The Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner was Robin Of Navan, who has failed to score in five tries this term.
They match both the Racing Post Trophy and the Dewhurst in producing winners which would be notable for their abject failure since.
Those 2015 English two-year-old championships were won respectively by Marcel (who?) and Air Force Blue (what him!). Neither would afterwards win a prize of any description, except that they vie for the title of ‘flop of the season’ in England. But note those down the field in these races:
Almanzor (pictured, 7th Criterium International) is champion of Europe this season; Idaho (4th in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud) has been placed in two Derbys and was winner of the Great Voltigeur; Massaat, runner-up in the Dewhurst was also runner-up in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas; Deauville (5th in the Racing Post Trophy) has won the 2016 Belmont Derby in America.
1.35 Saint-Cloud (Criterium International) The difference between the two tests in France today is that this one is 7f and the one that follows is over 1m 2f.
Johannes Vermeer had been runner-up to Marcel in the Racing Post Trophy so it’s current top juvenile form that matters, and that means Promise To Be True, second in the Marcel Boussac on Arc day, and Thunder Snow, fourth in the Dewhurst (South Seas sixth).
Promise To Be True was overwhelmed, only fifth, in the Moyglare but, Churchill apart, that race looks the pick of the two-year-old-fillies’ heats at home (Breeders Cup juveniles to come next weekend).
The winner, Intricately, looked outstanding as she overtook Rhododendron and Hydrangea, who had beaten her earlier. Well back, even behind Promise To Be True, was Brave Anna, who has since taken the Cheveley Park.
Thunder Snow (4.6 offers this morning) represents Churchill today, two lengths off him in the Dewhurst, and the colts usually beat the fillies in this.
2.45 Saint-Cloud (Criterium de Saint Cloud) If this is an indication of the French strength for next year, then England and Irish trainers can look forward to taking back the champion-of-Europe mantle in 2017.
Only two French stables have players here and both – with Prinz Hlodowig and Waldgeist – were stuffed in a Group 3 at Chantilly earlier this month by the Mark Johnston Listed winner Frankuus, who was following in the hoofprints of Robin Of Navan, who did the double with that race as his first leg. Frankuus was 11.5 this morning.
Capri beat Rekindling at he Galway festival. Since then, Capri as gone on to complete the hat-trick, on the last day beating Yucatan in the Beresford, before that one was second in the Racing Post Trophy.
Rekindling, David Wachman’s last ever runner, is huge at 23.0. He quietly won his maiden at Gowran and only now returns to the big time, with the ground and extra distance in his favour.
Wings Of Eagles (32.0 offers), one of three other Aidan O’Brien runners accompanying Capri could be at home in the mud today, as a son of Pour Moi (Montjeu).
BRISTOL BANKER TO OUTSPEED THEM
3.15 Carlisle Definitly Red is probably prepping for chase targets, and Onefitzall has been, in the words of the trainer, ‘an unhealthy horse’, so I’m moving a few chips on to Walking In The Air.
The Skelton runner has the weight to suit his make-all tactics and I can cover the 3.75 bet with 4.4 Onefitzall as a stakes saver, just in case Philip Hobbs can get that one up to scratch for the one race.
3.50 Carlisle Just three runners but sharing total of 19 wins, and with two generations represented by horses with identical ratings in Bristol De Mai and More Of That, both on 154, but with More Of That in receipt of 4lb.
Bristol De Mai has three years in hand, is the speedier sort for today’s trip and the stable is in terrific form, with current figures, still standing, of 1112144.
More Of That hasn’t been seen since Cheltenham, when he broke blood-vessels and this may be a tender test of his health for a stable that’s currently 0-26.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5.5pts win THUNDER SNOW (1.35 Saint-Cloud)
BET 2pts win and place FRANKUUS, and 1pt win and place REKINDLING (2.45 Saint-Cloud)
BET 7pts win WALKING IN THE AIR, and 2pts win (stakes saver) ONEFITZALL (3.15 Carlisle
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) BRISTOL DE MAI (3.50 Carlisle)
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