DAQMAN SATURDAY WINNERS AT 5-1 and 9-2: Daqman has been among the winners five days out of six this week after three more on Saturday:
WON 5-1 SOARING GLORY
WON 9-2 KAWIDA
WON 4-11 ENVOI ALLEN (Daq multiples)
CORK POPPING FOR GRAND NATIONAL DAY: Today has a triple bill of Cork Grand National, November Handicap at Naas, and an all-star cast for a chase at Carlisle.
🇦🇺 TOMORROW: The Melbourne Cup
THE FRODON SPECTACULAR
Down Royal stole Saturday. And for a while there Gordon Elliottt stole Down Royal, with a hat-trick in the first three races, winning margins totalling just under 50 lengths.
With so many ‘ifs and buts’ about fitness and ground among only five runners, the Ladbrokes Champion Chase wasn’t even billed as race of the day, never mind race of the decade or of the century. But in hindsight it would be worth high accolades.
Gold Cup winner v. King George winner. Rachael Blackmore v. Bryony Frost in an Ireland-England clash of Minella Indo and Frodon. But there was more.
As Frodon made all the running in a fantastic display of jumping and galloping of blinding ability and courage, a youngster of Gordon Elliott’s came to join in, for a moment looking like the winner, less than a length off a stable four-timer at the line.
But Frodon, showing great credit to Paul Nicholls’ preparation, denied Galvin’s strong challenge, and Minella Indo in third warned that he would be a mighty defender of the faithful come Cheltenham in March.
What a race! What a finish! Race of the day/year/century (delete to taste and debate at least until Cheltenham next year).
ESPOIR BEST NOVICE HOPE
⭕ 2.00 Carlisle A fabulous little Listed chase of 2m 4f, won previously by horses of the highest class: Grand National winner Many Clouds (2014) and in the last two seasons Lostintranslation (Colin Tizzard) and Imperial Aura (Kim Bailey).
Both southern raiders, Tizzard and Bailey (60% at Carlisle), are strongly represented again but face six-year-old new kids defending the prize for the North.
Espoir De Romay (Kim Bailey) Chase-by-chase improver as a novice, raised 20lb after a storming success at Leicester and would have won at the Aintree Grand National meeting but – trying to make all – overjumped two out.
Shan Blue, ultimately runner-up that day, was 20 lengths clear in the Charlie Hall yesterday when putting himself out of the race three out!
Fiddlerontheroof (Colin Tizzard) Third in that Aintree race when Espoir De Romay fell. Nearly three years of finishing in the first three (14 times out of 15) but a winner just the once in his last eight starts.
Silver Hallmark (Fergal O’Brien) Beaten a head by Fiddlerontheroof at levels in a beginners chase at Exeter.
Ahoy Senor (Lucinda Russell) Grade-1 novice hurdle winner for Scotland at the Cheltenham festival; ‘he just gallops and jumps’, says an excited trainer about his chase debut today.
Informateur (Sue Smith) Progressive as a novice but takes a leap in the dark here with the stable out of form (0-19).
Pay The Piper (Ann Hamilton) Another promising novice, the only horse in the race to have had a recent run.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.7 Espoir De Romay
FORECAST IS FOGPATCHES
⭕ 3.00 Cork (Grand National) With only one winner carrying more than 10st 13lb, and only one winning favourite in 10 years, focus is on trainer Gavin Cromwell who has two of the lower-weighted six who fit the tick boxes.
BETDAQ-ambassador Cromwell tells us in his must-read column that Arverne and Spades Are Trumps have each-way chances if they can get into a jumping rhythm.
Simon Torrens, who did so well for J P McManus last season, rides Arvene, with Mark Walsh on Spades Are Trumps.
The deeper the ground the better for Arvene, according to his handicap strike over the Punchestown fences on heavy in December.
Spades Are Trumps, in the same ownership, had not been effective in handicaps so returned to a beginners’ chase to score at Kilbeggan the last day. That could well have boosted his confidence.
Dromore Lad, winner of this National off 125 last year, is 2lb lower this time; he’s the only CD scorer in the race, and one of only four course winners.
But I’m bypassing the tick list – opposing the stats – and going for Pat Fahy’s Mister Fogpatches.
He’s one of only half a dozen in the race to have had a recent run and the one above all to have good form over marathon distances. Third in the Scottish Grand National he then won at Punchestown (3m 7f) on May Day. I hope there isn’t too much rain.
BETDAQ value 6.4 Mister Fogpatches
THE TOP AND BOTTOM OF IT
⭕ 3.45 Naas (November Handicap) The last two winners clash in this renewal but De Name Escapes Me (2020) has switched to jumping since and I much prefer Jukebox Jive for Gavin Cromwell.
Jukebox Jive won in deep ground in 2019 off an 84 rating, reduced by his 3lb claimer. Today he’s drawn in the same stall 18, now down to the 80 mark, with a 7lb claimer.
He was a rare winner from a high stall; in three recent runnings at Naas, this handicap has gone to stalls 1, 4 and 7.
That suggests two things: firstly, that Jukebox Jive was always the power source in the 2019 race and, secondly, that we ought to find something in the low stalls in case he is not so effective today.
I will look no further than big-field specialist Jamie Spencer on Arcadian Sunrise, going for a hat-trick after winning a big hurdle at the Galway Festival and then a valuable handicap at York (Spencer up).
Arcadian Sunrise (gate 8) has lumps of weight but his hurdles mark is now nearly 50lb up on his Flat-race level. For a progressive animal, he could still be 10lb well in.
He’s near top of the handicap; Jukebox Jive’s at the bottom, taking the claim into account. That’s an old-fashioned forecast.
BETDAQ value 6.4 Arcadian Sunrise, 20 Jukebox Jive
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Carlisle (win 20, nap)
BET 12pts win ESPOIR DE ROMAY
3.00 Cork (win 20)
BET 3.75pts win MISTER FOGPATCHES
3.45 Naas (win 20, win 4 place)
BET 3.75pts win ARCADIAN SUNRISE
BET 1pt win and place JUKEBOX JIVE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
