IS THIS FILLY AMONG THE ALL-TIME GREATS? John Gosden calls it ‘a proper Arc’. Aidan O’Brien attacks the 5m-euro prize list (down to fifth place) the day after he reached 20 Group-1 hits for the season.
The favourite for the race is Daqman’s own favourite. Does the form since his 25-1 ante-post Epsom Oaks coup on BETDAQ Enable him to see a great champion through from start to finish?
14-1 AND 16-1 WERE BETDAQ 25.0 AND 26.0: There’s always a place for a longer long-shot like Enable on BETDAQ but Daqman’s four hits on big outsiders since Thursday were a case of so near and yet so far for hefty returns. His four in three days were:
2ND 16-1 KNIGHT OWL (win and place Thursday)
4TH 16-1 MR LUPTON (win and place 26.0 BETDAQ, Saturday)
3RD 14-1 BRONZE ANGEL (win and place, 25.0 BETDAQ, Thursday)
4TH 12-1 CHIEOFCHIEFS (win and place, 14.0 BETDAQ Friday)
The place return from Mr Lupton put Daqman 77-18 in front of Pricewise of the Racing Post. They clash today at Chantilly in the 1.45, 3.05, 3.50 and 4.35 races.
ENABLE MAKES IT LOOK SIMPLE
3.05 Chantilly (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe) No excuses, unless it’s une tourbiere (a peat bog). My records show that, apart from the Japanese, the majority of Arc runners have form – Group form – on going from yielding to heavy, and John Gosden is right to call it a ‘proper Arc.’
If Enable wins ‘a proper Arc’ against all tactics, besting the ground and shrugging off her long season, she will be ranked up there with the greats. I’d love to see it after ‘finding’ her at 25-1 on BETDAQ before her Epsom Oaks.
GOING records with soft or yielding in the return (in alpha order since debut): Brametot 1111, Capri 111341, Cloth Of Stars 32103112, Doha Dream 2112102, Dschingis Secret 33111, Enable 11, Idaho 42323, Iquitos 242, One Foot In Heaven 13112, Order Of St George 21211211, Plumatic 202, Satano Diamond 4, Satano Noblesse, 240, Seventh Heaven 0020, Silverware 1102033120, Ulysses 21021, Winter 211, Zarak 12421.
AGE & BREEDING: Fillies and mares have won two-thirds of the Arcs since 2008, and are currently five out of six. The only colts to score were all three-year-olds and all had won the Epsom Derby.
The greatest stallion of this and perhaps any generation, Galileo, had never won it (his score was 0-20) until Found last year.
DISTANCE: Why is that? Because stamina is not the only essential at either Longchamp or Chantilly, partly because of the way races are run in France.
They toy with each other like cyclists at a velodrome and sprint from the final bend. The last 10 winners had all scored at 1m 4f but eight were held up for a final dash.
TRAINER AND JOCKEY: Aidan O’Brien has won the Arc only once since 2007 until he got the tactics right last year, and Ryan Moore has opted for the mile and mile-and-a-quarter winner Winter.
RATINGS: Only Ulysses and Enable are rated above the bottom rung (123) required to win this race.
VERDICT: I have Capri at BETDAQ odds of 16-1 and 25-1 to win me 100 points but he’s still 22.0 this morning because of Moore’s choice of ride. I had been expecting a smaller field in the hope of positioning for an underround. No chance.
Ulysses at 10.5 should be thereabouts and Winter at 9.8 is tempting. They’re saying a lot depends on the tactics but the one thing about Enable is that she is uncomplicated; she simply runs them into the ground, whatever ground that is!
POLYDREAM FORM BOOSTED
1.10 Chantilly (Prix Marcel Boussac) This fillies’ Criterium has gone to Aidan O’Brien four times in the last dozen years notably with the subsequent Irish 1,000 Guineas winner, Misty For Me (2010), and the Arc heroine, Found (2014).
In their early profiles, Magical and Polydream were front-runners and Polydream has settled best, coming from off the pace at Deauville to beat Laurens, who won the May Hill last week.
Magical beat Happily in August but the placings were subsequently reversed on soft-heavy for the Moyglare. O’Brien obviously rates them both highly, taking on the colts with Happily in the Lagardere.
MASAR COULD BE ANYTHING
1.45 Chantilly (Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere) This colts’ Criterium hs never been won by a filly. It rarely produces big-time winners. The exception this century was dual Guineas winner Rock Of Gibraltar (2001) for Aidan O’Brien, who has won it seven times.
Happily is looking to avenge the 2014 disqualification of her brother, Gleneagles, with O’Brien trying to take advantage of a sub-standard field.
Mythical Magic and Olmedo have both done well on soft ground in France already, but the fact remains that both have been beaten and the improver among the colts is Masar, who was a skeleton of a horse early on but has really grown into himself.
The son of New Approach, Masar’s dam’s side goes back to Sea The Stars and Galileo, and he ‘could be anything.’
LACAZAR LOOKS THE VALUE
3.50 Chantilly (Prix de l’Opera) No outright favourite was won the Opera this century, and three-year-olds are 7-2 up over four-year-olds since 2008. In fact, they’ve won it 29 times in 40 years.
Aidan O’Brien gives Ballydoyle two chances to break his duck in this race, with Rhododendron (second in Guineas and Oaks to Winter and Enable) better drawn than Hydrangea and with a soft-ground success to her name
Hydrangea, preferred by Ryan Moore today, had been beaten five times by Winter until she finally got her revenge on the last day at Leopardstown on a sound surface (Rhododendron behind, slowly away).
German Oaks winner Lacazar will love the ground and Shamreen won the Blandford comfortably in similar conditions.
Lacazar is the value at 7.2, having slammed Wuheida nearly five lengths at Dusseldorf, before Wuheida got within about a length of Hydrangea at Leopardstown.
ALPHABET IS HUGE AT 18.5
4.35 Chantilly (Prix de l’Abbaye) Only one outright favourite has scored in 15 years but, on her only start on soft, Marsha failed to get a clear run at Goodwood in Battash’s King George Stakes and receives 4lb from the three-year-old today.
Marsha herself won it in her second season last year, and she claimed the scalp of the flying Lady Aurelia in the Nunthorpe in August.
The punt at a price is the 18.5 Alphabet (O’Brien-Moore) who was behind Marsha on firm but as improved this backend and is twice the animal with deep cut back to the minimum. Could try to make all.
ACLAIM’S VICTORY FORAY..
5.15 Chantilly (Prix de la Foret) Just about the only race on the Chantilly card today in which you can trust the favourite, which wins this 50% of the time (7 from 14 since 2003).
And with the ground seemingly against Zelzal, and with Karar only a Group-3-level winner so far, it looks like a match between two in-form English raiders.
Aclaim was impressive at Doncaster though was always held by Brando in a Group 1 at Deauville earlier. But Brando ran a stinker at Haydock on the last day and is better known as a sprinter.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as advised)
1.10 Chantilly (win 20)
BET 12pts win POLYDREAM
1.45 Chantilly (win 20)
BET 6.6pts win MASAR
3.05 Chantilly (SP super nap)
SUPER NAP 20pts win ENABLE
BET (to win 100) 5pts win CAPRI
3.50 Chantilly (Bull’s-eye bet to win 50)
BET 8pts win LACAZAR
4.35 Chantilly (Bull’s-eye bet to win 50)
BET 2.85pts win and place ALPHABET
BET 2.25pts win (stakes saver) MARSHA
5.15 Chantilly (win 30)
BET 12pts win ACLAIM
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