CLASSIC BETDAQ LEADS THE BOOKIES HOME: BETDAQ won the Derby by a mile! Its morning offers about the first two were well clear of bookmaker prices, as revealed by Daqman, who stood virtually alone among tipsters in opposing Saxon Warrior. The SP was also greater, as he reveals below. BETDAQ is the place where you can have your own opinions and get the best prices about them.
GODOLPHIN KEY TO FAMOUS DERBY DOUBLE: There’s another Classic today, the French Derby, as Daqman lines up 30-8 for winners this season in front of Pricewise of the Racing Post (+35 to -86 to a single unit stake). And he reckons Godolphin could have the key to a second Derby, a famous two-day Classic double if they can pull it off.
BIG BETDAQ VALUE IN THE ONE-TWO
What a one-two! When I said yesterday that BETDAQ was the place for Derby value, I couldn’t have known how accurate that would be in forecasting the result.
I listed the ratings for each runner, revealing the gaps between bookmaker’s fixed odds and BETDAQ offers. Incredibly, these were the two biggest discrepancies at the front rank of the ratings:
2ND 20-1 Dee Ex Bee (22-1 bookies, 28.0 BETDAQ) 6 points difference.
WON 16-1 Masar (14-1 bookies and 19.5 BETDAQ) 5.5 points difference.
Masar was also big value at SP. But, again, only on BETDAQ (where it’s called XSP). The bookies paid 17.0 at starting price. BETDAQ XSP 20.8.
The bigger price they are the bigger certainty that BETDAQ will pay more. The 1,000 Guineas winner was 66-1 (or 67.0) with the bookies. BETDAQ paid out 150.0.
WHY THE CROWD CANNOT GET RICH
Be your own man! The ‘experts’ – tipsters, jockeys and trainers – were all on Saxon Warrior and ITV Racing reported that ‘professional backers’ all knew he was the certainty of the decade, if not the century. The ‘new Sea The Stars.’
As my mentor, punter extraordinary Paul Major, told me many years ago: ‘What money there is to share among the lemmings isn’t worth having.
‘The odds-on one the crowd adores for no real reason is the one to avoid. The crowd by definition cannot get rich.’
Know what horse you want to back. Know what price you want to back it at. And don’t listen to anyone else.
We’ll talk more about that next week. Meanwhile, how absurd that morning Derby market among the bookies looks now at 4-6 Saxon Warrior, 12-1 bar one.
Eh bien, are you ready for another Classic upset after the Newmarket Guineas’ 66-1 winner and the Derby at 16-1?
The French Derby (3.15 Chantilly below) has had winners at 25-1, 20-1, 16-1, 14-1 and 12-1 (twice) in the decade. Alors, here we go again!
ROGER’S RAIDER IS IN GOOD ORDA!
1.30 Chantilly (Prix de Sandringham) If you’re blaming the ‘coffin box’ one stall at Epsom for Saxon Warrior’s defeat, don’t forget to keep an eye on the draw at Chantilly.
For instance, in this opener, six of the last seven winners came out of stalls 1, 3 and 4.
It won’t help Karl Burke’s Ellthea (gate 6), the French 1,000 Guineas seventh, from the stable that houses Saint-Alary winner Laurens, or Freddie Head’s Efaadah (coming out of 7).
But Roger Varian will be delighted for Altyn Orda (3.25 on BETDAQ this morning from stall 4), who was fifth, not far off Laurens (second) and Wild Illusion (fourth) in the Newmarket 1,000.
The best of the rest may be Crown Walk, a Dubawi filly from Godolphin’s French outfit. She beat nothing well on the last day.
VIBES ARE STRONG FOR GELDED GOLD
2.00 Chantilly (Prix du Gros-Chene) English raiders have won this three times in five seasons but the English weather may have beaten them this time.
With the Epsom forecast soft, or even heavy, Charles Hills made travel arrangements to switch A Momentofmadness to Chantilly from yesterday’s Dash.
Now Charles is hoping that the forecast for the Hauts-de-France today saves his blushes. No rain. Temperature 24. Could the sun be shining on Mr Hills’ recent Chester winner, who is stepping up in class?
I’m not a great fan of bridesmaids but I do like to stick to my winning lines of form, and 3.6 BETDAQ offer Gold Vibe (form figures 1222-2) ran a recent cracker, pipped by this column’s sprint ‘find’, City Light, in the Prix de Saint-Georges, beating Son Cesio for the second time and finishing in front of the 2015 and 2017 Gros-Chene winner, Muthmir. Son Cesio won it in 2016.
And the bridesmaid ‘epithet’ today takes on a new meaning. He’s been gelded since the Saint-Georges. I don’t think I’ve backed a gelded bridesmaid before!
GODOLPHIN’S KEY TO FRENCH DERBY
3.15 Chantilly (Prix du Jockey Club) John Gosden was probably right when his first thought was to run Roaring Lion in this quarter-mile-shorter French Derby.
He didn’t get up the hill at Epsom yesterday, just as our 20-1 ante-post voucher began to burn hot, seeing him try to swoop down the outside.
Aidan O’Brien’s Epsom five failed to reach the frame which doesn’t augur well for his Chantilly quartet today.
Here we go again with Olmedo, the Guineas winner in France, favourite for the Derby today, though with nothing like the ballyhoo and cramped odds of Saxon Warrior’s double bid in England.
You could write down Olmedo for his defeat by a filly in the Lagardere. But you could equally say that he’s beaten the Epsom Derby winner. Third in the Lagardere that day was Masar.
Olmedo is in the one stall; but Brametot won the Derby out of the same gate last year, and a bigger worry may be
James Tate’s Hey Gaman, the French Guineas runner-up, who has only a neck to find on the favourite and is bred to do so.
Study Of Man seems to have a nice slot in stall 6. He very easily won a top trial for this, the Prix Greffulhe.
O’Brien faces Godolphin again. Charlie Appleby saddles Key Victory with his Epsom Derby winning rider, William Buick up, describing Key Victory as ‘a typical late burner.’
The O’Brien cavalry is led by Rostropovich, or is it? We are used to second, third, even fourth strings from Ballydoyle taking the prize.
Kenya was a long way last of seven behind Rostropovich on the last day. Hunting Horn (3rd) and Flag of Honour (5th) were run out of over the extended 1m 4f of the Chester Vase but the Derby-runner-up Dee Ex Bee was second that day, so today’s shorter trip could bring them both into play.
I can’t have Rostropovich. His Dee Stakes win has been let down badly by the placed horses.
Until we know better, the English form is in front of the French form, as suggested by Hey Gaman’s being only third to James Garfield in the Greenham.
I, therefore, have 31.0 BETDAQ outsider Hunting Horn in front, representing Epsom Derby form, with Key Victory at 6.8 the likely improver.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Chantilly (win 20)
BET 8.75pts win (nap) ALTYN ORDA
2.00 Chantilly (win 20)
BET 7.6pts win GOLD VIBE
3.15 Chantilly (French Derby, win 30)
BET 5pts win KEY VICTORY
BET 1pt win and place HUNTING HORN
3.25 Fakenham (win 20)
BET 5pts win GUIDING STARS
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