DAQMAN TRAVELS ON BIG-RACE TRAIL: Winners at huge prices on a day that doesn’t normally augur well for the festivals. But that was Saturday, whereas today’s Cheltenham card gave us three big winners in March last year. Daqman checks them out and also tries to land the Southern National and the four-year-old hurdles championship at Auteuil.
14.5 AND 11.0 PLUS THE GREAT ESCAPE: Today’s Fortune Cookie is Winter Escape (2.30 Cheltenham) and there are headlines for big value at 14.5 and 11.0 throughout the day, with Daqman itching to get one back on Pricewise who is 1-0 at this autumn mini Cheltenham festival with one day left.
TAKE THIS EARLY CHRISTMAS PREZIEN!
You can forget yesterday’s Cheltenham card. The form was muddied and muddled by the rain, as returns of 20-1 (twice), 14-1 and 12-1 suggest.
Winners on the corresponding day last year were festival flops: it produced three championship runners, who could manage only ninth in the Pertemps Final, ninth in the Mares Final and 11th in the Ryanair.
Today should be more helpful, 12 months on from success on this card for the subsequent winners of the Champion Chase, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett.
12.45 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Trial) Champion-bumper winner Moon Racer is the Pipe pride and joy though, as with Jonjo O’Neill’s yesterday, he has to be one of few in the yard in form, if he is to take this.
Ballyandy has a 4lb pull for threeparts of a length on Perth form in September, when both made their debut over timber. Since then Keep In Line has won twice as many hurdles with ease and 6.6 is tempting when the front two are together in a heap.
1.20 Cheltenham (Arkle Trophy Trial) Henry De Bromhead mounts a two-pronged attack (Some Plan and Three Stars) on Le Prezien, who had only a pound better rating than Some Plan over hurdles.
Barry Geraghty gave him an excellent jumnping round at Uttoxeter, with winning the race only secondary on his agenda. He very nearly did win it, and gets 4lb from Some Plan, who made mistakes in a two-horse start to fences at Punchestown.
1.55 Cheltenham Chase Sprinter Sacre returned to his former glory in this last year, and went on to a memorable Champion Chase comeback.
Fox Norton here is more on a level with Uxizandre, who won this the year before on the way to taking the Ryanair.
The same age as Uxizandre, the Fox has emerged from the Cheltenham and Aintree shadow of Douvan with wins at the back of last season and the front of this, as yet another rising star for Colin Tizzard, who hopes he will go on to the Tingle Creek.
Though Fox Norton is four years younger, the handicapper already has him in front of Simonsig (not won a race since Cheltenham Festival 2013). Front-runner Special Tara, who makes mistakes, should set it up for him.
STERNRUBIN 11.0 IS GREAT(WOOD) VALUE
2.30 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle) Philip Hobbs (three times a winner in the decade) has farmed this under the noses of his Somerset rivals Paul Nicholls (2) and David Pipe (1).
And he’s set up Sternrubin for today, off a mark lower than any of his three winners, and surprisingly better off at the weights with the Nicholls horse, Modus, that he beat in the big hurdle at Ascot a fortnight ago, albeit Modus came through from way back.
North Hill Harvey failed to shine at Graded level at the big festivals but had won on this course and could be a different proposition in his first handicap.
Nicky Henderson has started to unwrap his goodies for the season and gives himself two chances, with Hargam, third to Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle, and Brain Power, a big chasing type who finished in front of Yorkhill when third in the Punchestown Champion Novice.
This is not a race that’s won from the bottom of the handicap, and I can’t fancy the Pricewise pair, Song Light and Jack The Wire, though it has to be said that Song Light races above himself in better company – third in the Swinton and fifth in The Ladbroke – though I would want to see his stable in better form.
My Fortune Cookie to follow is Winter Escape, 4.6 this morning as Barry Geraghty’s choice over the two other J P McManus runners, Hargam and Modus, and Hargam has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, well over my betting weir to 37.0. So I shall take Winter Escape (4.6) and Sternrubin (11.0) against the field.
I JUST HAD TO GRAB 14.5 ON THE WING
1.00 Fontwell (Southern National) Big and bold as his name, Fergal Mael Duin, running for last year’s winning trainer, Colin Tizzard, is 2-2 on this course over 21f and hasn’t been out of the first four for 14 starts, still standing.
This trip is a new departure but comes the day after Tizzard spotted that Viconte Du Noyer, a winner over 20f at most, could successfully be moved up to the 3m 3.5f of the Saturday Cheltenham marathon on his very first run for the yard.
Cloudy Copper doesn’t appeal for this trip on breeding. Jonjo O’Neill’s horses all ran as badly yesterday as I expected, excepting (Murphy’s law!) Taquin Du Seuil, which gave Pricewise his first lead over me in six seasons.
I nailed Jonjo’s More Of That for a successful place lay but didn’t make a profit on the race so it doesn’t count.
Woodford County is targeted at the Welsh National and Russe Blanc is 10lb higher than when winning the Midlands version, the Warwick Classic.
Cyclop is described as ‘exposed’ in the trade-paper but, at just five years old, can take a step forward any time soon, although the Haydock race which was his career best was so slow run that the ambulance had to drop into second gear to avoid overtaking the field.
Buachaill Alainn is a once-a-year type (and he’s had his win) who prefers a sound surface, as does front-runner Finish The Story who could be a trade horse at 15.0 offers this morning, and possibly hang on into a place, with his stable in fine form.
Jennys Surprise is another likely place candidate, better off here with Buachaill Alainn. Gets a stone from Aerial and Ballyheigue Boy; more from those higher up the ladder.
Morney Wing, who has had a run back for a yard doing well, was ‘the moral’ in the Norfolk National, giving weight to the first two who beat him two necks. He was the value on BETDAQ this morning at 14.5. Fergal Mael Duin was 7.0.
2.50 Auteuil There’s not much to choose on form between Willie Mullins’ Footpad and the home favourite Device, if they repeat their running over the Auteuil CD in the Spring.
A line through Chic Name says they will hold Adrien Du Pont and Coo Star Sivola, and Footpad has already beaten Beyond Henry and Chic Name over the CD.
Device has the advantage of a recent winning run – yet again, it was over the CD – but Willie wouldn’t send Footpad over to test the water against animals he already knows well: £90,000 says it was worth getting him ready to win first time.
DAQMAN’S TIPS (staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 3.5pts win KEEP IN LINE (12.45 Cheltenham)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) LE PREZIEN (1.20 Cheltenham)
BET 7pts win FOX NORTON (1.55 Cheltenham)
BET (to win 30): 5pts win FERGAL MAEL DUIN, and 2.2pts win and place MORNEY WING (1.00 Fontwell)
BET 10pts win FOOTPAD (1.50 Auteuil)
BET 5.5pts win WINTER ESCAPE, and 3pts win and place STERNRUBIN (2.30 Cheltenham)
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