THREE DAQMAN NAPS UP OUT OF FIVE: It was 0-0 in the mud between Daqman and Pricewise yesterday, and their score remains 9-6 to Daqman, who wished he could have taken an early bath, after winning with his nap at Newcastle. It was his third successful best bet in five days as he maintained his winner-a-day record,
WON 85-40 SINCE DAY ONE (Saturday nap)
WON 9-4 FIRE DANCER (Friday)
WON 6-1 BIT HARSH (Thursday dead-heat from BETDAQ 9.4)
WON 11-10 LOUP DE MAULDE (Wednesday nap)
WON 4-6 BERNARD SPIERPOINT (Tuesday nap)
IT MARKS YOUR CARD FOR CHELTENHAM: Today Daqman analyses the big novice hurdle at Naas which throws up Cheltenham winners. He finds a nap at Chepstow and a white-hot trainer at Southwell.
HOTTER THAN THE TOLWORTH!
⭕ 2.20 Naas (Lawlors Novice Hurdle) Daqman preview Friday in the Archive
As we’ve seen, this race is usually Ballymore-winning strength, with Gordon Elliott (4) and Willie Mullins (4) sharing the spoils in eight of the last nine seasons. The favourite scored in eight of them.
The Ballymore currently has a strong English favourite in Paul Nicholls’ Hermes Allen, who won the Challow at Newbury in a canter.
But Nicholls’ last two Challow winners have both been put to the sword by Irish challengers in the Ballymore, notably Bravemansgame.
He was victim to Bob Olinger in the 2021 Ballymore, when Bob went straight to the race from success in this Naas heat. Envoi Allen had done the same, directly following up his Lawlors at Cheltenham.
Nicholls’ Tolworth scorer at Sandown yesterday, Tahmuras, is among the Ballymore outsiders, along with Royal Bond runner–up Irish Point and Champ Kiely, who run here at Naas today.
But Grangeclare West of today’s field has been most impressive so far, home by 13 lengths over the CD at Navan in November, and is preferred by the stable to 86-lengths Tramore winner Gaelic Warrior.
But missing from today’s card is Facile Vega, who was turned over at odds-on at Navan in the Monksfield Novice Hurdle in November by Dawn Rising (Joseph O’Brien), significantly a six-year-old like all bar one Lawlors winners in the decade (9-10).
Dawn Rising was winning at Navan in a time nearly 4sec faster than did Grangeclare West, with both races run on going described as soft.
He is sporting the J P McManus colours, as does Inothewayurthinkin, 2-2 including defeat of Imagine (withdrawn today) at Gowran Park in November.
Inothewayurthinkin (Gavin Cromwell) was winning over 2m that day but the Walk In The Park colt has a pedigree packed with stamina for today’s trip and beyond.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 2.9 Grangeclare West, 12.5 Dawn Rising
⭕ 1.20 Naas This novice chase has produced the Irish Arkle winner at Leopardstown (February) for the last two seasons in Energumene (2021) and Blue Lord (2022), both for Willie Mullins, and Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Appreciate It, is long odds on to follow the same route.
MOONLIGHTER SHINES AGAIN
⭕ 1.40 Chepstow Moonlighter was clobbered after a strong sequence including four Graded-race attempts (beaten a neck by Greaneteen) in the 2020-21 season.
But he has crashed 27lb down the handicap since then, which means he can take in this class-4 handicap. A recent wind op should help him get back into the winners’ enclosure for a stable in winning form at Wincanton yesterday.
Duc De Beauchene has to bounce back from three defeats by a total of 104 lengths; Good Work is a nine-race maiden and Buckhorn George is FP4 over fences.
BETDAQ value 3.85 Moonlighter
⭕ 2.40 Chepstow Crebilly won easily at Newcastle in December when his market rival dropped out. It means giving 7lb and more to every rival in a big field here, and it looks a pinstickers’ race.
If it’s a war of attrition in the mud, Donnacha might be involved: bred to stay twice as far, but placed in two bumpers, one of them here at Chepstow.
BETDAQ value 2.01 Crebilly, 23.0 Donnacha
BALDING HITS FIVE IN A ROW
⭕ Southwell Most top trainers (including P Nicholls) go off to the sun this week. It’s certainly rare to see a Flat string have more than the odd stab at a prize.
But Andrew Balding likes to keep his hand in, if that’s what you’d call five winners in a row over the last four days (current form 111113), four under David Probert..
Balding has three at Southwell today, two of them ridden by Probert: Celtic Champion (1.30) at 2.36 on BETDAQ this morning and Berkshire Phantom (2.30), also favourite, offered at 2.2 as I write..
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Southwell (win 8)
BET 5.75pts win CELTIC CHAMPION
If lose
2.30 Southwell (win 12)
BET 10pts win BERKSHIRE PHANTOM
Plus
BET 1pt win double the two
1.40 Chepstow (win 10, nap)
BET 3.5pts win MOONLIGHTER
BET 1pt win double with CREBILLY (2.40)
2.20 Naas (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.75pts win DAWN RISING
BET 5.25pts win GRANGECLARE WEST
2.40 Chepstow (win 22)
BET 1pt win and place DONNACHA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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